, 7 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
since i know everyone follows me for technical analysis, i first read about breadth thrusts in NDR and was like wow they a) take them very seriously and b) apparently have a good track record. so i was curious with all the tweeting and chatter about it what NDR is saying.
so early this year, NDR was warning that without a breadth thrust the market was in more challenging condition. haha, oh should've paid attention. they list 3 metrics that they follow. so i looked at those three.
The one they put most stock in I believe, is ratio of 10 day advancing stocks to 10 day declining. This was from From 2017, marking to market the signal from Feb 16. 45 of 46, with the one miss being 1987.
Here's that ratio as of 1/9/19. They use 1.9 as the signal level. It hit 2.4. 2.4 seems really high, like it's the highest in the table, although not in graph, so IDK what that's about. But anyway, signal triggered.
The second signal they look at is percent of stocks above 10 day moving average, looks like using 90% as a threshold. That triggered on 1/7/19 and was 92.3 yesterday.
third one is I think 2 10-1 up days with no 10-1 down day in between. This one looks a lot noisier, but triggered on 1/4/19.
so look, i have no idea if this another example of small n, or stops working when everyone pays attention, or market structure changes have reduced the signal. prob don't take your TA advice from a guy who reads 10-Ks. but it is what it is.
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