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Matt Stoller
@matthewstoller
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Resentment of the wealthy wouldn't be so popular if the wealthy weren't doing things like pricing medicines that prevent blindness by doing a discount cash flow analysis of how much individuals value each eye. (It's $500k apiece, or $1M in total.)
Populists don't resent wealth. They resent *illegitimate* wealth, extremes of wealth drawn from power and connections and speculation. Not wealth created by making and selling things. It's no surprise that as we've turned towards extraction populism is getting stronger...
Apologies, the Spark Therapeutics treatment to treat blindness is just $425,000 per eye for a total of $850k. They are selling it under the million dollar price point. Everything is fine. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
I haven't analyzed Starbucks in depth, but the answer is... maybe leaning towards no. Starbucks is a chain store, and chain stores have both extractive qualities and useful ones.
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Matt Stoller
@matthewstoller
If @CoryBooker is giving a speech like this in rural Iowa on the problem of big ag, he’s going to be a very strong candidate.
@CoryBooker Most candidates have a clear ideological track record. Booker doesn’t. He’s genuinely mixed, more populist of late.
@CoryBooker Cory Booker spoke out in 2017 on the need for antitrust action against Google and the biggest companies in the world. This is not a small deal. recode.net/2017/7/20/1600…
Read 8 tweets
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Matt Stoller
@matthewstoller
1. So talking Jason Furman for a sec, because @AOC criticized a paper he wrote in 2005 titled "Wal-Mart: A Progressive Success Story" as sponsored by Walmart and she's getting blowback for it. Let me just offer a couple of observations about what is and isn't fair.
2. First, I like Furman. He has done good work on some important topics. He worked to protect the safety net, and his observations about superstar firms in 2016 were pivotal to moving the debate over concentration in certain circles. And he isn't corrupt.
3. But the debate over Walmart, and the institutional circles he moved in, were deeply destructive. At the time, the Hamilton Project at Brookings was just starting up. Hamilton was Wall Street tycoon Robert Rubin's holding pen for what would become the Obama economics team.
Read 16 tweets
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Matt Stoller
@matthewstoller
Markets are political structures. We’ve designed our markets to prioritize the power of Google, Facebook, and Amazon instead of enabling a free press and shielding that press from govt influence through advertising. Bad choice. Reversible!
The FTC is totally useless. It's time for Congress to act, and just draw lines in legislation. No targeted ad business if you are an essential communications facility. Google would divest its adtech business lines. Explosion in creativity, entrepreneurship and journalism.
I don't think people get how insane it is that everyone has a supercomputer with an insanely powerful camera in their pocket connected to a worldwide information grid, and yet somehow no one can figure out how to build a sustainable media business.
Read 9 tweets

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John Cutler
@johncutlefish
Not “rules” by any means...but tendencies

1/10. We underestimate the amount of work we actually have in progress and the impact on flow, quality, value delivered...and overestimate the value of parallelizing work #proddev #kanban #flow
2/10. We underestimate the drag created by dependencies, constraints, hand-offs, reviews, etc. etc. ... and overestimate our ability to navigate them, play Tetris, and thread the needle #proddev #kanban #flow
3/10 We underestimate the impact of “lights on” and “business as usual” type work...and overestimate our ability to tackle these issues without a big hit on flow #proddev #kanban #flow
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Ben Hakes
@BenHakes
Private Real Estate markets are now 30%+ above peak GFC prices, despite 8 rate increases by the Fed in two years and a 10Y Treasury @ ~3.15%.

Furthermore, pricing continues to outpace core property NOI growth (fundamentals).

/A thread on Private U.S. commercial real estate.
Cap Rates (NOI/Property Value) are in uncharted territory across every major asset class. There is really no place to find a bargain these days. Again, cap rates are LOWER than two years ago when the 10Y treasury sat @1.80%. Let that sink in.
Net Asset Value calcuations are largely determined by real estate appraisals in private real estate. Those appraisals use discount cash flow analyses to come to a value for the properties. In aggregate, those pricing assumptions are MORE agressive than two years ago.
Read 7 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
It isn't possible to understand Hulu's business without understanding the value of an individual subscriber (which is similar to an annuity). What does a subscriber cost to acquire, what is churn, what is gross margin and what is revenue per subscriber? cnbc.com/2018/08/10/hul…
The collective NPV of all Hulu or Netflix customers must be aggregated. Value of a business = value per customer x number of current and future customers. 25iq.com/2018/08/11/how…
"Each of the key variables in a subscription business can be either: (1) many angels working together to build something wonderful or (2) a pack of hungry wolves that can tear the business to shreds." 25iq.com/2017/07/15/ama…
Read 4 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Michael Mauboussin: "The value of a business is the present value of the future free cash flow, and the accounting for book value has little bearing on that."
google.com/amp/s/www.fool…
"...multiples may vary for justifiable economic reasons. For instance, two companies with the same growth rate in earnings but with different
returns on invested capital will justifiably trade at dissimilar P/E, EV/EBITDA, and P/B multiples." bluemountaincapital.com/wp-content/upl…
"...it takes ten or more years of cash flows to justify current stock prices. Nonetheless, most investors avoid the difficulty of forecasting long-term cash flows by simply ignoring them. Instead, they focus on short- term earnings growth prospects." expectationsinvesting.com/pdf/earnings.p…
Read 6 tweets
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CrowPointPartners
@cppinvest
1/ For those of you too young to remember, the 1997-2002 bubble essentially provided public venture capital money to the entire telecom sector. These were early stage startups wholly dependent upon the capital markets for survival.
2/ The evolution usually went like this: (1) private equity money; (2) $100mm high yield; (3) IPO; (4) follow-on high yield. I lived this first as a cap mkts banker in high yield, later as an analyst.
3/ The story told by managements went like this: “this is a heavy fixed cost business, once we get to critical mass, spending stops and huge amounts of free cash flow follow. It’s simple math.” And the markets initially believed this story and funded follow-on after follow-on.
Read 11 tweets
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Dr. Phil Metzger
@DrPhiltill
"Closing the business case for mining propellants on the Moon," by @george_sowers, formerly chief scientist of @ulalaunch now faculty at Colorado School of Mines.
2/ The concept is not to use rovers that dig and haul regolith with ice to a processing plant, but instead to heat the ground with mirrors and capture the sublimed vapors in a tent as it diffuses from the ground.
3/ Julie Brisset & I at @UCF are funded to do physics-based computer simulation of this process in collaboration with them. More work is needed, but so far the results are very promising. There are enough "knobs" to turn in the design that we feel confident we can make it work.
Read 10 tweets

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