Thread by @Brefugees

Let's talk about campaigning methodologies and strategies

It's boring and we'd rather just follow the lead of others, but it's important we understand these things because it helps explain the difference between Leave and Remain campaigning that have led us to this point...
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In campaigning the main idea is to achieve our Objectives for the least Input, thus doing/spending the least possible to achieve the most possible for our cause. This is known as force multiplication

The best way to think of this is:

Input > Activity > Outcome > Objective
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Most campaigns follow an Activity based model, where the focus of the campaigning is based on just doing something. This is usually the most aimless approach, but it makes us feel like we're achieving something

Commonly this would involve leafletting, street stalls etc etc
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Another common campaigning approach is the Outcome based model. This is where we decide on a desirable Outcome and focus our Input and Activity on achieving it

A good example is trying to get another referendum and assuming the country would obviously vote Remain next time
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However, the rarest and most effective approach is the Objective based model. In this approach we decide what has the greatest impact and then work backwards to achieve our goals

The best way of envisioning this is illustrated below:

Objective > Outcome > Activity > Input
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When we know what we're trying to achieve, we can identify the Outcomes that will lead us there and what Activity and Input are required.

This approach often leads us to pursue Outcomes and Activities that seem counterintuitive, but will most likely achieve our Objectives
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Now the critical point in all of this is to understand our Objectives, not only in terms of what we want to achieve but also what compromises we are willing to accept

Speaking for ourselves, we want the UK to remain in the EU but we're willing to accept FoM as an Objective
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This is fundamentally where Activity/Outcome approaches fall down because we end up so focused on what we're doing that we become detached from what we're trying to achieve

For example, by desperately pursuing the Outcome of a referendum we forget the Objective is to Remain
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Similarly, if we follow an Activity model all that counts is how many leaflets we distribute, or how many street stalls we hold, leading us to forget that the idea is to change people's minds and not just be seen to be doing something and to feel better about ourselves
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When we pursue the Objective model we focus on what we actually want, and how we get there and what we have to do in the process become secondary to achieving whatever it is we want

This allows us to be agile, change our approach when needed and keep our eyes on the prize
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When we understand these differences in campaigning the Leave strategy becomes a lot clearer

They are following an Objective based model, so they evolve their positions and pursue whatever Activity/Outcome achieves their Objective. Thus lying, cheating etc are all in scope
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In contrast, Remain is pursuing an Outcome based model so all their focus is on achieving their desired Outcome, i.e. a referendum, with little consideration of whether the end result of their desired Outcome still serves their Objective. In this case UK remaining in the EU
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Leave clearly understand their desired goals and they far better understand what compromises they'll make to achieve them

For example they want No Deal if they can get it, but May's Deal achieves most of what they want and so it's an acceptable compromise if they can't
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In contrast, Remain wants a referendum so all their effort is focused on forcing that Outcome because they've lost sight of their true Objective

This explains their failure to campaign for Remain and willingness to attack compromises that threaten their desired Outcome
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The Brexit campaign also throws up another interesting and challenging dynamic

Where normally a campaign seeks to alter the status quo, in this instance we have two opposing campaigns seeking two diametrically opposite Objectives and this changes the calculus dramatically
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When campaigning against an opposing group controlling the narrative becomes vital

Merely understanding the status quo is no longer enough because it's vital to understand your opposition, their motives and to be able to second guess their reactions to your actions
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In such cases being predictable will see you outmanoeuvred, so pursuing an Outcome based model in such circumstances is a recipe for disaster because your opposition can simultaneously pursue their own Objective and attack your Outcome...as we now see with Leave/Remain
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For example, Norway isn't desirable for Remain but it should still be far less desirable to Leave

However, as it affects the likelihood of Remain's desired Outcome they have focused on attacking it...thus allowing Leave to pour all their Input into their own Objectives
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Whilst Leave have been free to pursue their Objective unhindered, with virtually all of their available Input, Remain has focused all of their Input into achieving their Outcome

Thus if/when Remain achieves a referendum, Leave are already streets ahead towards winning it
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Leave have been able to focus largely on their No Deal Objective, whilst putting just enough Input into derailing the Remain sides preferred Outcome to control the narrative

This ensures Remain has never controlled the narrative and thus have virtually no chance of winning
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Worse still, Remain has pursued a strategy of sailing as close as possible to Leave's Objective in hope of achieving their Outcome, i.e. assuming a referendum is preferable to No Deal, thus displaying a clear lack of understanding of their opponents motives and Objectives
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Factoring this together we can see that Remain's greatest failure has been to not understand both their own desired Objective and that of their opponents

Uncomfortable as it is to accept, Remain has actually facilitated Leave in this process when they could easily have won
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We refer to Leave as confidence tricksters, but how Remain was subverted and subsumed has been just as damaging

Tusk's right that there is no "force" for Remain. He's an experienced activist who knows how this game is played and he sees exactly what we're highlighting here
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Nobody will come out of this mess well, but when historians reflect on how we got to this place they will place at least as much blame on Remain as they will on Leave...because in the end Remain have facilitated their own demise and we collectively have allowed it to happen
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Yes, we have 48 days to go and anything could still happen but Brexit in some form is now by far the most likely outcome

If by some miracle the UK remains inside the EU it will be despite the efforts of the Remain campaign, rather than thanks to their campaigning strategy!
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