If only this was true!
We predicted the citizens' rights debacle and that the UK would end up on bare bones WTO terms before the referendum, so after roleplaying the various scenarios, here's a thread to put on the record what we expect to happen next....
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
We predicted the citizens' rights debacle and that the UK would end up on bare bones WTO terms before the referendum, so after roleplaying the various scenarios, here's a thread to put on the record what we expect to happen next....
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
The Parliamentary calculus states that the only way any Brexit deal will pass is if Labour support the motion. Most #Brexperts don't believe they would, be we think they will and we also think it's a Tory trap. Allow us to explain the logic...
Labour's priority is a General Election, and the bare bones deal being offered by EU loosely matches Labour's CU demands, keeps the NI border open and gives May some scope to soften the WA in exchange for Labour votes. But why would Labour support it and not collapse government?
Well, if May passes her deal, government will collapse from losing DUP support and a massive headbanger rebellion. So, what if she guarantees Corbyn a GE in exchange for Brexit support and a few meaningless platitudes in the political declaration about the future relationship?
May knows her government can't survive passing a Withdrawal Agreement, so she has nothing to lose from offering Corbyn a GE once the WA is through Parliament because it's virtually guaranteed at that point anyway. So why is this a Tory political trap, which Corbyn will fall into?
Once the WA is ratified by Parliament, it falls to ratification by the EU with no further input required from the UK. On ratification by both parties, the UK immediately leaves the EU and the WA immediately kicks in. So Brexit day may not be on 29th of March 2019 as most expect
So here's the political trap....
May has set expectations that the future agreement can be agreed and ratified by January 2021, which are the WA terms the Tories have set for the UK, along with undeliverable promises that a Labour government would be responsible for delivering
May has set expectations that the future agreement can be agreed and ratified by January 2021, which are the WA terms the Tories have set for the UK, along with undeliverable promises that a Labour government would be responsible for delivering
Factor in that a GE would take 3 months or more to organise, and a Corbyn government would have 18 months to negotiate this from a standing start, without the 2 years of EU experience and knowledge the Tories have gained from A50. They'd have absolutely no chance whatsoever!
And here's the kicker....
The subsequent failure of that Labour government to prevent UK going over the cliff-edge and facing a bare-bones, (and only slightly better than no deal scenario), in 2021 would then be seized upon by the Tories and history would blame Labour for Brexit
The subsequent failure of that Labour government to prevent UK going over the cliff-edge and facing a bare-bones, (and only slightly better than no deal scenario), in 2021 would then be seized upon by the Tories and history would blame Labour for Brexit
The one doubt we had over this scenario was whether the Tories would willingly relinquish "Henry 8th" powers they gave to Ministers to bypass Parliament, but we think they know it's a poisoned chalice that a Corbyn government wouldn't be able to resist....so we believe they would
We also see the optimum way for May to deliver her Brexit and ensure there isn't possibly any backpedaling is to get a Withdrawal Bill through Parliament and collapse government so that nobody has the power to withdraw A50 before WA ratification by the EU that ends the process...
Having paid so little attention to the complexities of Brexit, we can easily see Corbyn stumbling into this trap when no politican in their right mind would want to assume responsibility for delivering under the circumstances May's preparing to leave the country....
And when we say no politican in their right mind would assume responsibility, that includes May. We expect she's planning to quit after Brexit delivery anyway, and will later claim that she did the best she could in impossible circumstances. Untrue, but that will be her legacy...
Looking at recent statements from the EU, recent proposals from the UK which largely match Labour positions by keeping us in the CU until the unicorn farm is up and running, and an as yet unknown future declaration that Labour will care about because they'll be delivering it
Our roleplaying of the scenarios suggests that the Tories and Labour are already secretly working on this, presumably under pressure from the EU for the Brits to sort themselves out, so we expect this will all happen very quickly and once that vote passes Parliament we're out!
If the Tories and Labour are collaborating at the moment, under the deal of concessions and a GE, it would suit neither of them to make that known as it would be toxic for both brands and give rebels on both sides a chance to act. So what will follow will be pre-agreed theatrics
It suits the Tories to change the narrative and throw Labour under the Brexit Bus, so making some public concessions for a "unity" deal and then letting the fall out of the subsequent government breakup lead to Parliamentary stalemate and a GE to give Labour responsibility
In summary, if there's any justice @Anna_Soubry will be correct, but we expect that only the party in power at the end of transition will be remembered by the public for having failed to deliver on Brexit, and we expect Labour to trade a GE, (which they'll win), for Brexit votes!
*MOST IMPORTANTLY*
People need to understand the deadline for the UK leaving EU is when Parliament passes a deal, *NOT* 29/03/2019. It happens as soon as the UK and EU ratify the agreement!
Once UK has ratified it in Parliament the EU won't delay to ratify too and get us out!
People need to understand the deadline for the UK leaving EU is when Parliament passes a deal, *NOT* 29/03/2019. It happens as soon as the UK and EU ratify the agreement!
Once UK has ratified it in Parliament the EU won't delay to ratify too and get us out!
*MAYBE* we're willing to believe @UKLabour will vote against this deal now thay Corbyn has declared it doesn't meet their tests. However, we predicted they'll amend the PD, claim victory and support the deal for unity so this *MIGHT* also be the predicted political theatrics...
But then there he goes talking about the inadequacy of the Political Declaration, (with virtually nothing on the terms of the Withdrawal), so we're not writing off the idea of them supporting an amended version with tinkering in the PD
The Independent have just published an opinion piece describing almost *EXACTLY* the scenario that we've predicted in this thread. We doubt the writer read what we wrote, so we're increasingly confident this will be the endgame because nothing else works! independent.co.uk/voices/theresa…
Latest addition to our thread charting why we believe that Labour will eventually whip their MPs to support an amended version of May's deal, after some political theatrics, (we expect them to support a very minorly amended version of the deal in February)
