Thread by @Staedtler

We all know there's going to be a general election. For fuck sake, you don't get any points for that.
What we have to figure out is when.

I wonder if we can. With no inside knowledge whatsoever, never having met a journalist or politician in real life, if we can figure out when the general election is going to be.

Theresa May is like a ping pong ball at the moment, back and forth, back and forth between Europe and parliament. Neither side willing to give.

But she never accepts the answer. Europe says no, she goes back to parliament. Parliament says no, she goes back to Europe. Europe says no . . . and round and round she goes.

So, the withdrawal agreement remains exactly as it was when parliament rejected it by 200 votes a few days ago.
Now, she's not really supposed to bring it back for another vote if it's just the same thing again. I imagine she will because of the occasion, but she isn't meant to

She won't be allowed a third. Sp then it will have to be a general election. She could put her withdrawal agreement in a manifesto and try and get elected on it.

What's the latest Theresa May can call a general election if she's having one?

Three week election campaign, then time to put another vote through a new parliament. Four weeks altogether.

So we know something. If Theresa May is going to have another general election, she'll have to decide in the next fortnight.

After that it's too late anyway

What happens if she doesn't have a general election?
I think what happens is that Europe refuses to budge, parliament rejects her proposals again, she resigns and by whatever procedure parliament votes to revoke Article 50.

But if she does have a general election I think she'll lose anyway because she can't even unite her party around anything at the moment, and they'll go into an election campaign at each other's throat.

I mean, they are going to abandon Brexit as a policy because it's a fuckin disaster.
But they've left it so late. The chances are that Labour will win an election.
And that is going to mean Scottish independence

The Tories have really fucked up their timing. I wonder who advises them. They wouldn't have time to elect a new leader now.
They're stuck with what they've got, and what they've got is going to lose.