Thread by @james_bowley

As promised, here’s the latest update on YouGov’s ‘Who do you think would make the best Prime Minister?’ poll trackers, across a variety of groups.

Once again, a number of fascinating results and trends are revealed.

1/15

This covers the 59 polls taken since the 2017 general election when this ‘best Prime Minister’ question has been asked, and looks beneath the headline numbers to see what’s going on, and where the changes (if any) are happening.

2/15

With the overall headline numbers, February saw Jeremy Corbyn hit his lowest overall score since the GE 2017, at 19%, down from 39% in June 2017.

Theresa May scored 40%, higher than the 39% she scored in June 2017.
3/15

This mirrors the similarly dire ratings for Mr Corbyn as seen in last week’s Ipsos MORI ‘leadership satisfaction’ polling.

For more on the historical significance of that particular poll, a longer read is available here tinyurl.com/y6f3waq5

4/15

While May has lost the confidence of 10% of 2017 Conservative voters, Corbyn has made no inroads at all into this group at all.

Average 3 month scores:
Jun 17 - Aug 17: May: 87%, Corbyn: 1%
Nov 18 - Feb 19: May: 77%, Corbyn: 1%

5/15

Corbyn has seen a sharp drop in confidence of *28%* from 2017 Labour voters, while 11% of those voters pick May in the most recent poll.

Average 3 month scores:
Jun 17 - Aug 17: Corbyn: 77%, May: 3%
Nov 18 - Feb 19: Corbyn: 49%, May: 9%

6/15

Among ‘Remain’ voters, one of the most spectacular charts.

A 29% lead for Corbyn in the summer of 2017 has plummeted to just 6%.

‘Not Sure’ has soared.

Average 3 month scores:
Jun 17 - Aug 17: Corbyn: 52%, May: 23%
Nov 18 - Feb 19: Corbyn: 32%, May 26%

7/15

Among ‘Leave’ voters, a less dramatic chart, but (perhaps surprisingly) solid support & widening lead for May.

Corbyn hit a record low of 9% in the most recent poll.

Average 3 month scores:
Jun 17 - Aug 17: May: 58%, Corbyn: 18%
Nov 18 - Feb 19: May: 54%, Corbyn: 11%

8/15

With younger voters, aged 18-24, another dramatic drop in support for Corbyn, with his lead more than halving from 37% to just 15%.

Average 3 month scores:
Jun 17 - Aug 17: Corbyn: 57%, May: 20%
Nov 18 - Feb 19: Corbyn: 35%, May: 21%

9/15

Among voters aged 65+ (a group twice as big as the 18-24s) May’s lead has increased over Corbyn from 43% to 47%.

Average 3 month scores:
Jun 17 - Aug 17: May: 60%, Corbyn: 17%
Nov 18 - Feb 19: May: 57%, Corbyn: 11%

10/15

Among middle-class voters, social grades ABC1, from almost neck-and-neck in summer 2017, a 14% drop in support for Corbyn has seen May open up a lead of 17%.

Average 3 month scores:
Jun 17 - Aug 17: May: 39%, Corbyn: 36%
Nov 18 - Feb 19: May: 39%, Corbyn: 22%

11/15

Among working class voters, social grades C2DE, again May has benefited from a 9% drop in support for Corbyn, who hit a post-2017 GE low of 17% in the most recent poll.

Average 3 month scores:
Jun 17 - Aug 17: May: 36%, Corbyn: 31%
Nov 18 - Feb 19: May: 33%, Corbyn: 22%

12/15

Among male voters, again May hasn’t gained or lost support, but Corbyn has seen an 11% drop, with the prime minister enjoying an 18% lead in the most recent poll.
Average 3 month scores:

Jun 17 - Aug 17: May: 39%, Corbyn: 34%
Nov 18 - Feb 19: May: 38%, Corbyn: 23%

13/15

Among female voters, quite a change, from level-pegging in summer 2017, to a 15% lead for May.

In this most recent poll, the PM enjoyed a 23% lead (41% vs 18%).

Average 3 month scores:
Jun 17 - Aug 17: May: 35%, Corbyn: 34%
Nov 18 - Feb 19: May: 36%, Corbyn: 20%

14/15

As with previous threads of this sort, if you don’t believe polls, or YouGov specifically, no need to comment.

Other polls are available.

Yes, it could turn around.

This is the ‘what’s happening’ thread. The ‘why it’s happening’ is a matter for debate & discussion.

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