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We teach fermi estimation in our Calling Bullshit course: callingbullshit.org/case_studies/c….
It's a dark application, but we can use this technique to think about the costs and benefits for the school shooter trainings that so many school kids are now required to attend. 1/10
It's a dark application, but we can use this technique to think about the costs and benefits for the school shooter trainings that so many school kids are now required to attend. 1/10
There are approximately 50,000,000 students in primary and secondary schools in the US.
It seems conservative, but let's suppose that only 1/4 of them attend school shooter trainings, and these trainings are only an hour in length. 2/10
It seems conservative, but let's suppose that only 1/4 of them attend school shooter trainings, and these trainings are only an hour in length. 2/10
Even if we ignore the psychological trauma to e.g. a second grader being taught how to fight back against an active shooter, that's 12,500,000 life-hours invested in school shooter trainings. 3/10
On average, school children have approximately 500,000 remaining life hours each.
So if only one student in four spends only one hour in training, school shooter trainings consume 25 student-lifetimes nationwide. 4/10
So if only one student in four spends only one hour in training, school shooter trainings consume 25 student-lifetimes nationwide. 4/10
Over the past decade, an average of 20 students per year were killed in school shootings in the US. It's a horrible tragedy.
But notice that even if school shooter trainings were 100% effective, they would expend more life-hours than they preserve. 5/10
But notice that even if school shooter trainings were 100% effective, they would expend more life-hours than they preserve. 5/10
Admittedly it may be much better to waste an hour of 500,000 students' lives than to lose a single student (and what could have been her 500,000 remaining life hours).
But there is no little or no evidence that these trainings prevent fatalities. 6/10
But there is no little or no evidence that these trainings prevent fatalities. 6/10
The advice my children receive borders would be comical if it weren't tragic. "Make a loud noise. Throw a textbook at the shooter, or a basketball if you're in gym class."
(photos of training materials from @CovingtonAHS) 7/10
(photos of training materials from @CovingtonAHS) 7/10
"Don't come out until the school's all-safe password, `excellence in education', is read on the loudspeaker."
The kids saw the logical flaw right away: most shooters are students at the school and thus know the all-safe password!
*Password changed to protect secret word. 8/10
The kids saw the logical flaw right away: most shooters are students at the school and thus know the all-safe password!
*Password changed to protect secret word. 8/10
There is, however, abundant evidence that these trainings create substantial anxiety for many children and crippling anxiety for some.
With large costs and questionable benefits, why, beyond administrative ass-covering, are we subjecting our students to this practice? 9/10
With large costs and questionable benefits, why, beyond administrative ass-covering, are we subjecting our students to this practice? 9/10
For those who want to hear more, in this thread Dr. Lisa Gilbert describes some of what goes on at one of these trainings. My own experience and my children's' experiences are similar. 10/10
