Thread by @hxhassan

If the Islamic State’s resurgence was always possible, it became even more so due to a list of factors created during the last fight against the group in a critical terrain for its future.

My new research, on the cover of this rich edition of @CTCWP:

ctc.usma.edu/hollow-victory…

Jabhat al-Nusra (now HTS) could return to Deir Ezzor, once a key stronghold, if the situation unravels after the US leaves: 1) the SDF is too overstretched/vulnerable to police the area 2) the regime’s return could be just the ticket to reconstitute itself & mobilize supporters👆

First attack by former Jabhat al-Nusra in its former stronghold since its expulsion by ISIS in 2014. 👆

Reporting here, quoting HTS, details the 1st attack against the Syrian regime in Deir Ezzor since Nusra left the area in 2014:

HTS cells 'working behind enemy lines' attacked the regime's 4th Division. HTS vows more attacks against the regime in DeZ. eldorar.com/node/133287?fb…

This is a noteworthy development, about the possibility of HTS (former al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra) returning to eastern Syria after ISIS. Competition between the two groups is now on equal terms. HTS even has advantages, as I detailed just last month: ctc.usma.edu/hollow-victory…

I know for a fact the plan by Nusra to return to Deir Ezzor has been in the works for about three years, and this won't be an isolated incident. Nusra could be better at presenting itself as the more potent force against Assad, even if ISIS may mobilize better against the SDF.

Here is another (more solid) confirmation

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1111297075214462976