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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Booker 53
Klobuchar 39
Harris 38
Sanders 18
Warren 17
Castro 12
Biden 6
Delaney 6
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorseme…
That's right, folks: We've started tracking **endorsements** again in 2020.

Not just governors and members of Congress this time, but: Mayors! State legislative leaders! DNC members! And more! Everyone gets an endorsement!

See an endorsement we've missed? Drop us a line.
So far, Booker, Klobuchar and Harris have the most endorsements, but they're almost all from people within their state. In other words, it's very early. It's interesting who *isn't* getting endorsed, though. Gillibrand doesn't have any. Bernie has more than Warren.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
First person who I actually thought had a chance to win who isn't running.
Not clear what "lane" Brown was running in (in some ways, he's a testament to why the lanes thing is silly). But probably most helpful for candidates were hoping to score big in the Midwest. Certainly helpful for Klobuchar, for instance. Maybe for Biden, Buttigieg, maybe Beto.
Maybe not bad for Bernie either, I think there's some overlap there in terms of e.g. trying to cultivate support from organized labor.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Ugh, this is a bad use of MRP. (This tweet will have a very narrow audience.) The article makes it seem like the authors discovered *geographic* variation in this variable called political tolerance. But they don't do that *at all*. They found *demographic* variation instead.
You can impute what the geographic distribution of a variable would look like based on a region's demographics. But it's a pretty rough estimate. And it tells you *nothing* about the culture of that particular place or region.
A lot of quants who don't know any better think that with MRP, you can spin straw into gold. Instead, it's like spinning straw into... a straw basket. Which is actually sort of useful? But it's still straw. You haven't created any information, just reformulated it.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Random NBA Draft idea: If you "win" (finish top 4) in the lottery, your odds worsen in subsequent seasons.

e.g.: Get the 1st pick, lose 70% of your lottery balls (1 "ball" = 0.1% chance) for the next 3 drafts.
2nd pick, lose 50% of balls
3rd pick, lose 30%
4rd pick, lose 10%
The losses are cumulative, e.g. if you get the 2nd pick and 3rd pick in consecutive years, you lose 80% of your balls in the 3rd year. But you can't go into ball debt. You always keep a minimum of one ball (0.1%).
This is a Good Idea. It both punishes teams for **multi-year** 76ers-style tanking plans and evens out the luck quite a bit. It would be pretty easily to implement without making other structural changes to the draft.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Robby Starbuck
@robbystarbuck
Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar & Kamala Harris all just voted NO on a bill requiring medical care for babies who survive abortion. They all vote to let newborn babies suffer & die.

This is who Democrats are running for President.
Harris, Sanders, Warren, Gillibrand, Booker and Klobuchar voting against medical care for babies who survive abortion is the definition of evil. Not providing medical care for a baby born alive after a failed abortion isn't "my body, my choice", it's the murder of a human being.
The same elected Democrats who tell us that a wall on our southern border is immoral just voted NO on a bill that requires newborn babies receive medical care after surviving an abortion. They voted against providing care to infants. Insane. Totally and utterly insane.
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☇RiotWomenn☇
@riotwomennn
See any Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Beto, Brown, Warren, Castro, Biden supporters smearing candidates w propaganda?

The tone starts at the top

Not 1 black, Latina, women or gay candidate has every said this & not 1 voter has ever cast such a vote

Listen:

Bernie Sanders has turned the facts upside down. He is suggesting that this is a regular occurrence: candidates don't have any achievements, they don't have any policies or record of integrity ... they just say vote for me because I'm a woman, I'm black or I'm gay.

That's a lie
And now? Bernie Sanders says
Read 3 tweets
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☇RiotWomenn☇
@riotwomennn
See any Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Beto, Brown, Warren, Castro, Biden supporters attacking other candidates?

The tone starts at the top.

Not 1 black, Latina, women or gay candidate has every said this & not 1 voter has ever cast such a vote

#NeverBernie

Bernie Sanders' attacks on black, women, gay, and Latina candidates (especially Harris), originate w Bernie, then filter out to his high profile surrogates

Bernie then plays innocent, never calling them out

Like with sexual harassment, Bernie is too busy
Jared H. Beck is the Bernie Sanders supporter & lawyer who sued the Democratic National Committee and Debbie Wasserman Schultz for collusion and fraud. The case was dismissed.

If folks want to know why Sanders should sit out 2020 ...

Tone starts at the top.

#NeverBernie
Read 4 tweets
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Leftward Swing 🌹🌻
@LeftwardSwing
🛑Establishment Dems are once again rolling out a debunked talking point against Bernie.

Let's have a look at this! & debunk it once again!😍

🍩CLAIM - "Kamala is ranked most progressive! Bernie is ranked #9!"

#BernieRR #Bernie2020
🔴HISTORY - This began appearing about 1.5 years ago. It was dunked on immediately. It is from a chart on the website "Progressive Punch" progressivepunch.org/scores.htm?hou… ranking members of congress.

#BernieRR #Bernie2020
🔴THE FACTS - This "scoreboard" is based upon a lifestime vote score from members of congress which "Progressive Punch" dates back to 1991.
progressivepunch.org/whatIsProgScor…

Kamala has severed only 2 years in congress.
Bernie has served 28 years in congress.

#BernieRR #Bernie2020
Read 10 tweets
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NotMyPresident
@ironstowe
Short THREAD

#Kavanaugh perjury
1.Yesterday #Leahy #Booker #Hirono #Harris and other #Democratic Senators exposed that #Kavanaugh infact has committed perjury on several occasions.

Attached newly released #emails from #Kavanaugh

#KavanaughPerjury

popular.info/p/bonus-kavana… …
2.#Kavanaugh has testified under oath that #Miranda who stole #emails from #Leahy never sent him Documents

Attached is an #email from #Miranda to #Kavanaugh containing documents prepared by Democrats stolen by #Miranda

popular.info/p/bonus-kavana… …

Read 5 tweets
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Indivisible NY 24th
@IndivisibleNY24
While we're waiting for the polls to close (and doing last-minute GOTV!), we're going to tell our story of the past year and a half. Win or lose tonight, we think it's a story worth telling
We got started in November 2016 (before @IndivisibleTeam existed!), with help from the amazing organizers at Syracuse Peace Council, @WorkersCNY, Black Lives Matter Syracuse, and others
By Dec 2016, we were writing and calling @repjohnkatko to request a meeting. After weeks of frustration, #WheresKatko? was born
Read 46 tweets

Trending hashtags

#VA08 #Lisa4People #SaveACA #Midterms2018 #TrumpRussia #VA10 #CO03 #KeepItInTheGround #CO05 #VA02 #ABSENTEE #GunViolencePrevention #VoterID #VA6 #VoteBlue #ForoGlobal #Leahy #Vote #PrimaryElection #TrumpRussiaConspiracy #Democratic #JoshHawleyGTFO #SundayMorning #CO06 #Hirono
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