Thread by @charlesjkenny

It is 25 years since Robert Kaplan wrote "The Coming Anarchy: How scarcity, crime, overpopulation, tribalism, and disease are rapidly destroying the social fabric of our planet" in the Atlantic.

History hasn't treated it very well.

"Africa's immediate future could be very bad. The coming upheaval, in which foreign embassies are shut down, states collapse, and contact with the outside world takes place through dangerous, disease-ridden coastal trading posts, will loom large in the century we are entering."

More broadly: (i) the last quarter century has seen the quality of life of the average human improve faster than ever before (ii) no country is stuck in a Malthusian trap and resource conflicts are declining

(iii) the idea of anarchy spreading via tidal waves of refugees doesn't match with how refuges behave and is (regardless) belied by migration statistics (iv) the 'anarchy' (such as it is) in rich countries is home-grown, not imported.

(That said, Kaplan was right to warn of the challenges presented by climate and, more broadly, that the greatest national security threats to the United States would involve global problems including environmental issues and pandemics. )

(a few more quotes: Abidjan in Cote d’Ivoire already had “gun-wielding guards who walk you the fifteen feet or so between your car and the entrance... giving you an eerie taste of what American cities might be like in the future.”

“We are entering a bifurcated world. Part of the globe is inhabited by Hegel’s and Fukuyama’s Last Man, healthy, well fed, and pampered by technology. The other, larger part is inhabited by Hobbes’s First Man, condemned to a life that is “poor, nasty, brutish, and short”

“Whatever the laws, refugees find a way to crash official borders, bringing their passions with them, meaning Europe and the United States will be weakened by cultural disputes” (doubtless they bring their "animist beliefs not suitable to a moral society")