Thread by @daveweigel

Howard Schultz now onstage at #SXSW, reliving the first weeks of his exploratory bid. "I said I was considering running as a centrist independent outside the two-party system." No one applauds. Let's see how this goes.

Four minutes in, Schultz gets his first applause for: "The two-party system is broken, dysfunctional, and in need of great repair."

Schultz kind of backing down from his "un-American" line when asked about Warren/AOC/"partisans": "They love the country. They have their core beliefs. But you have to ask themselves, is any of this possible?"

Schultz criticizing Green New Deal for the provision about making every building energy efficient. "That's a well-intentioned idea, but it's never gonna happen." Crowd is dead silent.

Schultz flat-out says that homelessness and other issues can't be fixed because of partisanship. "These problems are not going to be solved if a Democrat wins the White House in 2020."

Schultz suggests that non-voters in 2020 stayed home because they didn't like the choices. "I want to give 100 million people a reason to vote."

FWIW, turnout in 2016 was 61.4%, up from 57.5% in 2012.

Schultz is told that people think he has no chance of winning. "How many entrepreneurs are in the room today and people told you your dream cannot come true?" He stands up as about half the room applauds. "Don't let anyone tell you your dreams can't come true!"

Schultz says "there's a good chance that Donald Trump can't win the state of Texas" if he runs. "We know that life-long Republicans don't want to re-elect Donald Trump."

Trump, of course, has the highest support from Republicans of any GOP president.

Schultz sketches out a scenario in which he, Trump, and D each get a third of the vote. Of course, depending how that skews across the states, it could lead to a Trump electoral college landslide, a Sanders EC landslide, or an election thrown to House.

"If the math doesn't work, and there's any indication that my presence in the race would re-elect Donald Trump, then I would not proceed."

Schultz suggests Mueller probe could drag Trump down and lower the possibility of his re-election. "Things could get a lot worse over the next 18 months, which would give me an even greater opportunity to present myself to the American people."

Schultz's problems are epitomized when he talks health care. "The insurance industry is not playing fair with the American people... the people who are making these rules up are taking money from the insurance companies." That's the Sanders position, which he claims is socialism.

Schultz sketches out a presidency that would pressure businesses to act better. "I would be doing everything I could to convince businesses in America that they have a moral obligation to do better to the people they serve." Big idea: They get lower tax rate if they do this.

Asked how much he would raise taxes for the rich. "I don't know what the number is. Clearly our tax system is out of whack." Then: "We need solutions that are not fantasy."

Q: Can you define socialism?

A: If you want a good description of socialism, just look at Venezuela.

After some people boo, Schultz says "you don't like that?" and pivots back to praising capitalism. "Does it need to be refined? Yes."

I need to see some more pols in this room/setting, but it feels like Schultz is flat-lining. Some polite applause when he talks generally about government not working, lots of zoning out as he talks about solutions without saying anything specific.

Big laughs when @DylanByers tells Schultz: "'That's never gonna happen' is not a great campaign slogan."

Schultz, asked how he'd come up with a brand that voters like: "Give me some time to kind of feel my way through."

Good Byers Q: "Do you have people in your life who tell you: Howard, don't do this, you're embarrassing yourself?"

Schultz's non-answer: "When you do something that is against the grain, certainly you will have a group of people who say this is not the thing to do."