Thread by @MicFarris

THREAD: 2020 is an important election cycle, possibly the most important of our time. However, in context, we may only a third of the way through the realignment of American politics. The following is a play in five acts for this realignment. 1/

Before we start, this is a hypothesis, which, as I know, can explode into many pieces as reality plays out. I am a student, though not a scholar, of American history, love my country, and am enamored with her politics. 2/

That said, it's (I think...) a hopeful view for managing through the American political and governing crisis at hand. Our politics will unfold in acts, but the transition will be seen as the acts are revealed. 3/

By the way, I feel that Trump is a unique threat to our form of government, and I've always felt (from Dec 2016 onward) that L'Affaire Russe would be the Achilles’ heel for Donald Trump, and I still do. 4/

I believe his business activity is hopelessly intertwined with the connections between his presidential campaign and Russian election influence. Not sure what will eventually do Trump in, L'Affaire Russe will be the primary historical nexus to bring all of this together. 5/

I thought that we would get to the heart of the matter by 2018 and that Republicans would see the electoral handwriting on the wall before the Nov 2018 elections, forcing him to vacate the Oval Office; we now know that this was optimistic. 6/

Given the Blue Wave of 2018, though the details may differ, I think the five-act play below lays out the broad strokes of what can be the path forward for American democracy and its political realignment. Let’s begin… 7/

PROLOGUE (2008-2014): Through various election cycles, the Republican Party becomes increasingly controlled by extreme elements of their coalition. In 2008, the GOP selects Sarah Palin, then Governor of Alaska, but highlighting style over substance. 8/

With the Great Recession, the high risk decision of adding Palin to the presidential ticket sets the stage for the downfall of the party as a whole. 9/

Following the election of Barack Obama, the Tea Party movement forms, energizing the more radical elements of the Republican Party. Tea Party members seems to oppose both Democrats and the current Republican leadership. 10/

An Oct 2010 Washington Post canvass of local Tea Party organizers found 87% saying "dissatisfaction with mainstream Republican Party leaders", 92% are opposed to "Obama/the Democratic Party's policies", and 92% have "mistrust of government overall". 11/

washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special…

The 2010 election, with strong support from the Tea Party, resulted in significant Republican gains. The GOP won the popular vote by 6.8% and yielded a net change in the House of 63 seats, allowing them to take over the lower chamber of Congress. 12/

nytimes.com/elections/2010…

They also gained 6 Senate seats and 6 add'l governorships. President Obama described the election results as a "shellacking" for the Democratic Party. 13/

nytimes.com/elections/2010…

Birtherism, the conspiracy theory purporting that Barack Obama is ineligible to be President because he wasn't born in the US, started during 2008, but took hold with fervor when Donald Trump used the issue to gain attention for his own presidential aspirations in 2010. 14/

With a strong 2010 win came Republican efforts to solidify electoral gains. Redrawing district boundaries through gerrymandering allowed Republicans to gain and keep disproportionally large majorities in state legislatures and in Congress. 15/

Obama won re-election in 2012, and after losing the Presidency and some seats in Congress, the GOP examines their position from the 2012 election and conducts what they call an "autopsy". You can read it here: 16/

s3.documentcloud.org/documents/6236…

The Atlantic called the 2012 GOP Autopsy report "an astonishingly frank document that calls for major changes in how the party addresses minorities, women, and its own campaign processes." 17/

theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

In one passage, the autopsy report notes: "If Hispanic Americans perceive that a GOP nominee or candidate does not want them in the United States (i.e. self-deportation), they will not pay attention to our next sentence." 18/

Does the GOP follow the advice from their own autopsy report, or do they double down on power-holding tactics, such as voter suppression, gerrymandering… --> 19/

…big and dark money, tax cuts policies that benefit wealthy donors, obstruction (blocking the Merrick Garland nomination to the US Supreme Court), marginalizing and scapegoating ethnic minorities? Well, enter Act I... 20/

ACT I (2016): While Trump doesn't seek the White House in 2012, he does in 2016. During his 2015 announcement speech, he scapegoats people of color, targeting Hispanics first. 21/

Trump in 2015: “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best... They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.” 22/

GOP ignored their own 2012 autopsy and doubled down on the tactics of party cohesion versus a compelling governing message. The weakness of presidential field allows Trump to win the nomination. This gives us the first overt signs that the party has been hollowed out... 23/

Other significant factors to the GOP decline as a party is their lack of principles during the election… 24/

From NPR, Joe Biden stated that Mitch McConnell, GOP Senate Majority Leader, "refused to sign a bipartisan statement condemning the Kremlin's role" in 2016, which was why Pres. Obama didn't speak publicly on Russian interference during the election. 25/

npr.org/sections/thetw…

As with any compelling drama, Act I introduces the characters (Trump, GOP, Democratic Party, Russia) and presents the inciting incident. In this case, the Inciting Incident is the election of Donald J Trump to the US Presidency. 26/

time.com/president-dona…

ACT II (2018): Even though the Republican Party now has control of the House, the Senate, and the Presidency, they have no plan for governing. The quintessential example of this is the effort to "repeal and replace" the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare. 27/

After the ACA was enacted in 2010, Republicans used every subsequent Congressional session to attempt its repeal, knowing that the ACA would not be undone, either because the Senate wouldn't take up the bill or due to a presidential veto. 28/

For example, in a Feb 2, 2016 vote, with a tally of 241–186, the GOP-controlled House attempted for the 63rd time to repeal the ACA, going back to January 2011. This was obviously very important to them, or a low-risk way to gain political points. 29/

newsweek.com/houses-63rd-at…

However, once the GOP obtained full control over Congress and the White House, they were exposed as having no plan to "repeal and replace" the ACA. 30/

From the Washington Post, "...the GOP failed dramatically in its efforts last year to roll back the ACA as its first big legislative delivery on the promise of single-party control of Washington from Congress to the White House." 31/

washingtonpost.com/politics/repub…

The GOP proved themselves unable to govern once they had the ability to do so. Their political activities were merely designed to obstruct others, or to keep power at all costs. This came from the consistent efforts to obstruct any efforts to understand L'Affaire Russe. 32/

Devin Nunes, chair of the House Intelligence Committee, ran interference for the White House as concerned Congressional leaders attempted to get answers. Remember his "midnight run", trying to discredit the intelligence community? 33/

thedailybeast.com/devin-nunes-va…

Additionally, when the President acted in ways so counter to American interests, Republicans stayed quiet, feigned ignorance, or attacked those that dared to hold the President accountable. 34/

Examples include trying to lift sanctions on Russia, even though they attacked our elections, or stating that there was "blame on both sides" for the deadly, white supremacist demonstrations in Charlottesville, VA. 35/

cnn.com/2017/08/15/pol…

The election of Trump led to a significant awakening among the public, starting with the Women's March on Washington, where between 3.2 million and 5.2 million people participated across the country. 36/

nytimes.com/2017/01/21/us/…

This led to building of the Resistance, the Indivisible movement, and post-2016 election wins for Democrats, including the Alabama Senate seat, and the 2018 Blue Wave election, winning 40 seats and taking back the House of Representatives. 37/

vox.com/policy-and-pol…

Even with these Democratic electoral victories, one example of how strong the GOP hold on power is comes from the Wisconsin statehouse elections. 38/

From the Journal Sentinel:

GOP Gov. Scott Walker lost his bid for re-election by roughly 1 percentage point Nov. 6 to Democrat Tony Evers.

Yet Walker carried 63 of the state’s 99 state Assembly districts. 39/

jsonline.com/story/news/blo…

In other words, in WI, Democrats won statewide, but Republicans won *63* of 99 seats in the Assembly due to the way the district boundaries were drawn. 40/

The efforts by Americans to wrest undeserving power from the Republican Party will not end with one election... thus, we conclude Act II. 41/

INTERMISSION: Is the answer an independent presidential candidate? Let's take a look... 42/

Where there is political opportunity, a potential Howard Schultz candidacy or something like it is inevitable, but in my opinion, it's two years too early. 43/

theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

(*Spoiler Alert*) There will be an effort to build a new party with new candidacies and this will happen in 2021 (see Act III), in preparation for 2022 and 2024, to snuff out the embers of the 2020 GOP flameout. 44/

I believe the Coalition of All Democratic Forces (per @benjaminwittes), an effort to preserve our democratic institutions, will stay together, but in political form for only one more cycle, turning out Trump and his hardened core of a GOP base. 45/

lawfareblog.com/coalition-all-…

For sake of argument, and to present context, what would happen if an independent candidate for President entered the 2020 race? 46/

For someone to win in a three-way presidential race, you need to win a majority of electoral votes; this is a constitutional requirement. That means winning states in multiple three-way races. 47/

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_St…

What happens in the electoral college? In a three-way race, there are four potential outcomes: The Democratic gets a majority of EVs, the Republican does, the Independent does, or no one gets a majority. 48/

The likelihood that an independent would win outright in 2020 is low (if not very, very, very low). But, let's even look at what would happen if *no one* gets a majority in the Electoral College. 49/

The Constitution states, under the 12th Amendment, that the House of Representatives picks the President, where each state gets one vote. If we used the House breakdown as it is in 2019, who would win? 50/

constitutioncenter.org/interactive-co…

Using today’s state delegation breakdown, Republicans would win 26 states, Democrats 23, and there would be one tie. One can assume that the GOP would win the Presidency in this scenario. Plus, if Republicans hold the Senate, they would also pick the VP. 51/

One note: I don't really know how DC is represented if the House needs to elect the President. DC has 3 electoral votes, but they have no voting state delegation in the House. Based on a NYT analysis from 1992, it appears they would have no role: 52/

nytimes.com/1992/05/10/us/…

Could a strong Independent get votes in the House? Well, it’s not impossible, but highly doubtful that the Indy could win. 53/

In 1992, Ross Perot reached 39% in the polls, compared with 31% for Bush and 25% for Clinton. There was serious discussion at the time about whether House members would stick with their party nominee if the race were thrown to the House: 54/

baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-19…

If there is a competitive three-way race, there are 3 outcomes for the Indy candidate: (1) win outright, (2) take some EVs to deny an outright winner, or (3) win no electoral votes. 55/

An outright Indy win is very, very, very unlikely, which means that the likely outcome would be a Trump re-election. This implies that, for the Indy candidate, it’s more important for the Democrats to lose than the GOP (I disagree…). 56/

All that said, the recent poll on Schultz's initial reception may stave off *any* independent candidacy in 2020. 57/

medium.com/@ChngRsrch/pre…

In certainly an unintended twist, one could say that he's given his (political) life for his country. 57/

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_Ha…

LARRY KING: Can a three party system work?

PEROT: There won't be a three party system. One of these parties is going to disappear. One of those special interest parties will have a meltdown.

Keep this in mind in later acts. Now, back to our play... 59/

newrepublic.com/article/103458…

ACT III (2020): Recognizing that the Blue Wave only prevented slipping into the authoritarian abyss, more focus is placed on defeating the GOP in the 2020 election. Opposition continues to solidify behind Democrats, leading to a GOP wipeout in 2020. 60/

With a mano-a-mano political battle, Democrats take the White House and both houses of Congress. They secure more statehouses, and now, just as the GOP found themselves in 2010, Democrats are in control of major restructuring by redistricting, undoing GOP gerrymandering. 61/

There is vigorous re-energizing of the Democratic party - a wealth of fresh candidates, diversity of views, opinions, & representation, and a clarity of the constituencies served by the parties (diverse new America vs white, old America matriarchy). 62/

washingtonpost.com/powerpost/dive…

Strikingly, there is a continuation of strong party discipline of the Democratic campaigns and Congressional activity (e.g., working together vs infighting and lack of cohesion). 63/

washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…

With a rapid decline from its peak power in 2016, a 2020 GOP wipeout leads conservatives and others looking for a counterbalance to the much stronger Democratic Party to look for other options... 64/

ACT IV (2022): Starting in 2021, conservatives see GOP as unrecoverable vessel for future success - the Republican brand has been boiled down to a radioactive core, and the criminality and complicity among its leadership leads supporters to look elsewhere. But where? 65/

To the rebalance the two-party system, there are two options: (1) fight for control over the GOP itself, or (2) "expel" the influence of complicity and racism from the party base and form a new party, letting the radical elements have complete control over a dying GOP. 66/

America is a two-party country - the requirement to win a majority of electoral votes to gain the Presidency creates an environment for two strong two parties. At times though, one of the parties needs replacing, and in 2021, that will become the arc of American politics. 67/

Now that the GOP has been defeated, conservatives and NeverTrumpers coalesce to form a new party to displace the GOP and provide legitimate counterbalance to Democratic party going forward. 68/

Building a party from scratch is not easy – there are 50 state requirements for how parties form and getting on the ballot. This is a long-term & complex effort, and new "conservative" party supporters, in recognizing this, are up for the challenge. 69/

fairvote.org/the-worst-ball…

The new "conservative" party, expelling its radical positions on race and other extreme views, wins some seats in Congress and statehouses (in states where party access is easier and not tied to presidential finish). 70/

Governor's candidates run in other states to guarantee ballot access for 2024 presidential race. Some elected GOPers switch parties, and even some more conservative Democrats. 71/

ACT V (2024): In their first presidential election, the new party is on ballot in all 50 states plus DC. The Democrat, first winning in 2020, wins re-election, but the conservative party wins electoral votes from a few states, including the South, finishing second. 72/

More politicians switch parties. The electoral college win for the Democrats will be large (400+ EVs, possibly a 1980 Reagan-like victory), but the political realignment will have turned the corner, and the GOP will become a historical footnote. 73/

270towin.com/1980_Election/

POSTSCRIPT (2026 and beyond): With the realignment complete, the new conservative party displaces GOP and electoral victories grow. The two-term Democratic president is termed out, and the 2028 election will become a key contest of a newly constituted opposition party. 74/

As a result of this political realignment, American governing institutions will be strengthened, and a stronger two-party system will emerge. Each party will hold common American values with the other and offer differing views on how to govern. 75/

history.com/topics/united-…

In the end, a renaissance of American self-governance and the resiliency of our Constitution will be appreciated.

And scene... 76/END

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