Thread by @uk_domain_names

I've taken a very candid look at Brexit already on many occasions. Now it's time to turn the spotlight on what revoking Article 50 and staying in the EU would be like in practice. No holds barred.

Let's get the legal stuff out of the way first. The UK has an absolute right to unilaterally revoke Article 50 any time. The EU can only block the request if it's insincere. In other words, we can't fake-cancel Brexit then restart the process a few days later. We have to mean it.

If we did cancel Brexit, we would be entitled to stay in the EU under our existing membership conditions. We will retain all our vetoes, rebates, special dispensations etc. That too is a matter of law.

That's not to say that nothing would change in future. For example, the current EU budget cycle ends in 2020. If we were to stay, we would be involved in the process for the 2021-27 budget. It might mean paying more annual membership dues.

But our opt-out is secure on burning issues such as membership of the Euro, or participation in future Eurozone bailouts. They would not apply to us. Similarly, we wouldn't have to get involved in any future defence integration. (The so-called "European army".)

So staying in is simple, in practical terms. Theresa May secures the necessary backing, revokes Article 50. Brexit ends there and then. No more worries about deals. No more cliff edges. No more stockpiling. No more firms sprinting for the door. Brexit's an ex-parrot.

Unfortunately, that's the beginning rather than the end of the story.

For one thing, we can only rewind the clock so much. Once the storm of uncertainty dies down, we might be able to talk the majority of companies down off the ledge. We could certainly hope to stem the steady exodus of jobs and assets to the EU27.

But many firms have been forced to dedicate a lot of effort, money and resources into getting themselves Brexit-ready. It is unrealistic to expect them to go through all that again anytime soon. So the damage caused by our abortive attempt to leave the EU will linger.

We should not let that trap us in a sunk cost fallacy. Yes, when the dust settles, it will be obvious that Brexit has already cost us dearly. But the losses to our industries, to jobs, to the economy, are nothing compared to what will happen we persevere with leaving.

Desperate gamblers don't know when to stop chasing their losses. "The next bet will see me whole again." And they go broke. That doesn't have to be our fate. Yes, Brexit has been an expensive nightmare. Let's treat it as an object lesson, rather than double down on the pain.

The cracks in our society were present before Brexit, but the referendum and its aftermath blasted them wide open. Britain is broken in so many ways. We must not kid ourselves. Staying in the EU won't magically fix things. But it's a start. The first step on a long journey.

If there is a silver lining to Brexit, it's this: attitudes to immigration have changed dramatically over the last few years. Surveys show that we value immigrants more, and are more tolerant of them. We appreciate that they contribute to our society in many significant ways.

That may feel paradoxical when hate crime is rising, and the far right stirs up trouble at every turn. When Theresa May holds up ending freedom of movement as a virtue to be pursued in defiance of logic or reason. But the quiet majority know better.

They understand that immigrants are our friends, colleagues, neighbours, family. They understand that they contribute to the rich vibrancy of daily life, and underpin vital sectors, from the NHS to farming. They understand we’re all people, end of story.

We used to be seen as an open, welcoming nation. Friendly, polite, relatively tolerant. There’s no reason we can’t be again. Not immediately. But given time, I am confident the will is there... flowing up like a goodwill river from the younger generation through society at large.

Cancelling Brexit should deliver an immediate economic dividend. The sunk costs are gone. We might as well cry over spilt milk. But the Government has also set aside large sums as a provision against the potential damage of a no-deal outcome.

That money will become immediately available to spend where it is most needed. On the NHS, homelessness, mental health issues, schooling etc. The list is endless. So many things have been neglected or sidelined by Brexit. And now the focus can return to them, where it belongs.

But it's not just the Government. Companies have been holding back too. Brexit has been depressing investment for years. With the uncertainty gone, the UK is open for business again. Firms can return to their plans for new products, new factories, new jobs, new markets.

Many will be buoyed by the EU's recent trade deal with Japan (which came into force on 1 February 2019). The largest ever signed, we can expect it to add £billions to our economy – if we are in a position to exploit it. Well, if we revoke Article 50 and remain, we will be.

And remember those bulging warehouses stacked with stockpiled goods? We can expect the revocation of Article 50 to kick off a shopping bonanza as companies whittle stocks down. Bargains, as far as the eye can see.

The tourism sector, too, will breathe a sigh of relief. It will be OK to plan a holiday as if life were normal, because it will be. No worries about insurance green cards, international driving permits, grounded flights, or massive queues at ports. Just thoughts of sun and sand.

If you have medical concerns, you'll be able to rest easy, safe in the knowledge that the medicines you need will continue to be available.

But it's not all going to be roses, and we should not delude ourselves that it will be.

For one thing, despite a backlog of legislation, a large number of new Brexit-related laws have been passed by Parliament. It will be a job and a half to untangle that mess, and to put things back to the new normal. (Because the EU, too, has changed since the referendum.)

Civil servants will be busy for years sorting that particular puzzle out. Until the last traces of Brexit are excised, it will continue to put something of a brake on the normal affairs of Parliament. But nothing like the all-encompassing distraction it has been until now.

But it's on the political side that the difficulties will be most acute. Cancelling Brexit could mean the end of the Conservatives as a potent force. It would certainly fan the rise of a further-right party, UKIP 2.0. But Labour's facing a world of problems too.

When the dust settles, we could be left with two weakened main parties. They would still be the largest players, but mere shadows of what they were at the peak of their power.

There would also be one or more new far-right factions. But there would also be a beacon of hope. We can expect to see an enlarged centrist group, made up of MPs who have found they have much more in common with each other than traditional party lines allow.

So the end of Brexit is quite likely to also mean the end of the two party system. But many people would say that's a good thing, and long overdue.

Finally, we have the wildcard. The big question. What do we do about Brexit itself? By logic alone, we should give it up as an unworkable idea. Make the most of what we have, and seek to reform from within the parts of the EU that don't suit us. (With a gentle touch, please.)

Unfortunately, the world doesn't revolve purely around logic. The vote to leave was, in part, a way of expressing discontent at all the things that were seen as being wrong with the UK. And with time and effort, we can make inroads into fixing them.

But it was also predominantly a vote to leave. People have wanted out of the EU ever since we joined it. The failure of Brexit won't quenched that desire. There is no easy answer. But it's vital to acknowledge the issue.

Like the monster in a horror franchise, Brexit will always come back. But next time we will be armed and ready. Next time, we will win. THE END

This thread is also available as a PDF, if that makes it easier to read and share. You can download "So we cancel Brexit? Then what?" from the link below. Please pass this around if you found it interesting.
drive.google.com/file/d/1eYS7uS…