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The fascist attack in NZ is a real nightmare, I feel overwhelmed with grief and fear, but want to reach my heart to the families who were hit. This kind of attack is called "lone-wolf violence," but that incorrectly portrays it as unaffiliated with the far-right. (thread) 1/
A lone-wolf attack is usually a breaking point with an individual, or small group, breaking from the "social movement" model of the rest of the far-right and going in to engage in targeted violence, an act of desperation and a strike against perceived enemies. 2/
This usually comes at a period when the larger white nationalist or far-right movement, the above ground one, has taken a real sharp decline. This often comes after whatever mainstream partners they had, in this case the Alt Light, has abandoned them, and they cannot recover. 3/
This has happened before, in periods when white nationalism wanes it devolves into fracturing and that is when terror attacks and murders begin to occur in uncoordinated ways. 4/
This is the time period when the Alt Right and the circle around it is devolving into violence, acts that are not in control by the larger movement but come as a result of its agitation and organizing none the less. It is their failure to achieve their goals that does it. 5/
As they continue their apocalyptic rhetoric, yet have no practical way forward, these could continue. They set a framework like "white genocide" and then create desperate actors on the fringe, waiting to literally anything that can stop the End of Days scenario. 6/
This is the most consistent feature of the white nationalist movement. The leadership of the formal organizations will condemn it, and likely discourage it publicly, but their rhetoric and organizing strategy results in stray members of their movement committing these acts. 7/
Whatever they say about themselves, we can instead look at what the results of their movement is. While the Alt Right describes themselves as peaceful, we have seen dozens of murders and hundreds of attacks connected to it. That is correlative, we can draw a straight line. 8/
The official praxis of an above ground fascist movement is to behave peaceful, and as organizations they largely do, but it is their membership that engage in the violence. 9/
This was true, for example, of the KKK, who often engaged as a social movement operation above ground, while it was their membership acting outside of the official organizational capacity that were engaging in lynchings and murders. 10/
This gave the Klan plausible deniability. It wasn't the United Klans of America that was bombing churches, just stray people associated with the Klan acting outside of the dictums of Klan control. This has always been a mirage. 11/
We know what the results of these movements are, so lets treat them like they have the potential to create mass devastation, because they do every single time. It is one of the most reliable political phenomenon that exists. You can set your watch by it. 12/
If white nationalists are able to continue broadcasting messages openly and organizing, they will increase the sphere of people who will be willing to take desperate acts. Anytime they see a decline in growth, attacks begin, and so there is always a timer running out. 12/
