Thread by @polinaivanovva

Ukraine has a presidential election this time next week.

On the off chance I have any followers outside the post-Soviet bubble, here's a (loooong) thread with (almost) everything you need to know:

First up, this link to a cool @Reuters graphic outlining the main candidates, some polls and the main issues at stake.

🗳️ There are 39 candidates now
🗳️ If no one wins 50% of the vote, top two will compete in a run-off on April 21

graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-ELECTI…

Candidate #1: Poroshenko, "chocolate king"

Current president running for a 2nd term. Faces criticism for failing to end the war in east Ukraine, and for a patchy record on corruption.

His main pitch is his strong anti-Russia stance, c.f. election poster eastwards glare:

He also...

- got visa-free travel for Ukrainians to the EU
- has stayed in an IMF bailout program, reassuring investors
- successfully lobbied to establish an Orthodox church independent from Russia
- raised defense spending to 5% of GDP

However, disillusionment about Ukraine’s progress since Maidan and a failure to end the war in east Ukraine means his approval rating has slipped:

But one region he may do well in is west Ukraine. Read this story by Natalia Zinets from Lviv:

reuters.com/article/us-ukr…

Lviv "is heavily Ukrainian-speaking compared to Russian-speaking eastern regions... voters in the west care more about the war and less about, for example, rising utility tariffs than the average Ukrainian."

🇺🇦 Around 50 of the more than 100 protesters killed during the Maidan protests were from the west, 19 from Lviv region alone 🇺🇦

And because why not, here are two photos I took in Lviv a couple weeks ago.

🎶 On one, a street band sings Russian rock songs from the 1980s (Tsoi, Nautilius..)
🎶 On the other, pensioners sing Ukrainian folk songs during an impromptu gathering on a main avenue

Candidate #2: Yulia Tymoshenko, "gas princess". She's been...

- Ukraine’s prime minister twice
- the global face of a revolution (2004-5 Orange Revolution)
- imprisoned by two different presidents

Here she is, in a rare interview to international media: reuters.com/article/us-ukr…

Her pitch?

- promises a threefold increase in pensions
- calls the increase in household gas prices a “genocide”
- wants to continue cooperation with the IMF, but cut high gas price - though this is a condition for IMF programme

next Sunday's vote will be "Tymoshenko’s third shot at the presidency, having lost to Yanukovich in 2010 and Poroshenko in 2014," colleagues in Kiev write.

This is how things went down last time:

Also..

⚖️ Tymoshenko was jailed after the 2004-5 Orange Revolution by her Kremlin-friendly rival Viktor Yanukovich, who then became president.

⚖️ She told Reuters she would put current president Poroshenko "and his criminal corrupt environment" on trial if elected.

Ukrainian ex-prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko is seen through a prison window in Kiev November 4, 2011. REUTERS/Inna Sokolovska

Candidate #3: Yuriy Tymoshenko

A largely unknown lawmaker who insists he is the genuine candidate and that Yulya Tymoshenko is the bogus, or “technical”, one sent to spoil his chances of victory.

(no photos on the ballot paper to help tell them apart)
reuters.com/article/us-ukr…

Candidate #4: Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the candidate for anyone who still wants Martin Sheen to be U.S. president

Zelenskiy is a comedian and an actor who played the president of Ukraine in a popular TV show

Another wicked profile from colleagues in Kiev:
reuters.com/article/us-ukr…

Zelenskiy is the front runner right now, but still not polling high enough to win outright next Sunday, without a second round vote in April

As of March 20...
- Zelenskiy on 20.46% of votes,
- Poroshenko 13.25%
- Tymoshenko 9.50%

reuters.com/article/us-ukr…

"Even his party is called Servant of the People after the TV series."

Here's a trailer from 2016 where his character actually shoots the entire Ukrainian parliament

His pitch?

- stop relying on IMF but not allow Ukraine “to default and spoil the image of our country”
- tackle corruption by stripping president, lawmakers and judges of immunity from prosecution
- set up anti-corruption court

His instagram? 2.8 mln instagram.com/zelenskiy_offi…

"Zelenskiy has had to fend off suspicion that..he is a puppet of Ihor Kolomoisky, a prominent oligarch whose TV channel airs Zelenskiy’s shows"

Kolomoisky is a former main shareholder of Ukraine's PrivatBank, which now accuses him of multi-million fraud
reuters.com/article/us-ukr…

It's "a protracted legal battle between the Ukrainian government and PrivatBank’s former owners after (the bank) was forcibly nationalised in December 2016"

"Kolomoisky has..instigated a number of lawsuits and wants to regain control of the bank."
reuters.com/article/ukrain…

Whoever wins of the above will run a country that is still at war.

Here's a view on the election from the east, where many will either not be able or willing to vote next Sunday.

reuters.com/article/us-ukr…

Crimea + separatist-held parts of east Ukraine = 6 million people

🗳️ voters there are unlikely to vote as they need to undergo a special registration process on Ukraine-controlled territory
🗳️ the 3 million Ukrainians who live and work in Russia will not be able to vote either

the above data is from another great story by colleagues on what the Kremlin thinks of Ukraine's election

“Poroshenko is obviously impossible for us to deal with,” said one source familiar with Kremlin thinking >>

reuters.com/article/us-ukr…

omg I've hit the twitter thread limit

anyway, nice bit of revision for me on what we've published so far, and a nice long thread for you. everybody wins.