Thread by @ConUnit_UCL

After narrow agreement in the Commons the Cooper bill now reaches the Lords. What will happen?

In short, it seems likely to pass as a) the Lords respects Commons' primacy and b) Brexiteers are weaker in the Lords

But other differences between the chambers matter

THREAD (1/9)

The Lords normally takes legislation slowly, with gaps between stages. But a business motion from Labour allows the Cooper bill to be 'taken through all its stages this day' (i.e. today).

Various amendments have been proposed to this, objecting. Being debated now. (2/9)

The first sign of the bill’s prospects will be how heavily these amendments are rejected. Likelihood is that they are rejected very strongly by peers. (3/9)

Next would come the bill’s second reading, committee stage, report stage, third reading. Unlike in the Commons there are no time limits on debate, and no limits on number of amendments to be debated or selection of amendments by the Lord Speaker. (4/9)

So opportunities for 'filibustering' are much greater in the Lords than in the Commons. A small number of peers can (and probably will) move numerous amendments and try to keep debate going for hours.

But the words ‘this day’ in the motion do not imply an end point today. (5/9)

If a determined minority move numerous amendments, and a majority continues to reject them, debate could last all night – and even into the weekend.

In a conflict over terrorism legislation in 2005 the Houses sat for 30+ continuous hours (6/9): telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/14…

Recently, a small determined minority of peers have consistently blocked a private member’s bill (proposed by Lord Grocott) to end the hereditary peer byelections through filibustering and numerous amendments.

See here (7/9): politicshome.com/news/uk/houses…

But on the Cooper bill there is more opportunity for proponents to just keep going, and they probably will. The question is whether opponents give up if they are consistently defeated.

With both sides very determined, this is unpredictable. (8/9)

It’s worth remembering that in arguing for the snap 2017 general election Theresa May suggested ‘unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way’

Would seem consistent with that to think it wrong for peers to block this Commons bill (9/9)

To illustrate the filibustering point, after more than 2 hours peers are still debating only the 2nd amendment of 7 proposed to the BUSINESS MOTION - suggesting they won't start on the Cooper bill for quite some time.

@GdnPolitics is covering the detail:
theguardian.com/politics/blog/…