Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Article50

Most recents (24)

Using my time on the Eurostar to London for "Super Saturday" to make the latest #BrexitDiagram V30

This one covers the impact of the Letwin Amendment and how that impacts overall #Brexit outcomes

This is really important - as I explain in the thread
All the media focus has been on how MPs will vote on the Deal Johnson got in Brussels - and #VoteDownTheDeal

However something else - the Letwin Amendment - is actually more important to the outcome now
The Letwin Amendment means the UK has to request an #Article50 Extension *anyway*, buying time for the Commons and Lords to scrutinise the Deal

But other things - notably the vote on the Queen's Speech - happen during this period, and that poses problems for the Government
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@JolyonMaugham Thanks Jolyon. Just a few quick points, some of them obvious. 1/
@JolyonMaugham #Brexit has taken us into uncharted waters. (Who would have thought that a UK PM would ever prorogue #parliamentt and threaten the #ruleoflaw This means that by definition there is no precise precedent to guide us. 2/
@JolyonMaugham Furthermore legal provisions such as #Article50 may be vague and their text offer little direct guidance. The law ultimately may be uncertain until pronounced upon by a Court such as the #ECJ 3/
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The *only* block on holding a General Election in the UK now is the #Article50 Extension issue.

The Benn Act mandated the PM to go to the European Council 17 Oct and ask for an extension if no Deal can be agreed, and if no vote for a No Deal has been passed.
But no one really trusts Johnson to go and make that extension demand.

So what do you do?

These are the options
1️⃣ Table a Vote of No Confidence (VONC) in Johnson's government *now*, and find a majority for a caretaker administration. That caretaker administration has 3 tasks:
- to secure the Art 50 extension
- to nominate a European Commissioner
- to organise a General Election
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well, that was a #hairy #few #minutes, I have no #hashtags left to use about the #uksc.

The UK if you've missed it, is, possibly surprisingly, a #democracy and #democracyisnotdead

Should we talk about consequences? implications and links? might go into threads from here on in
I'm making this thread up as I go, but since about 90% of the population think the only Democratic problem is the speed of #Brexit, and #conspiracy about #RemainerNow delays, maybe someone should list all the attacks - most of which are far more serious. I'll justify that #uksc
Here's my view, feel free to add. I'll put this in normal language first, and add relevant legals after.

1) UK Executive and Tories (UKET) attempt Rule by Edict
2) UKET attempt a Parliamentary Coup (we may now legitimately describe it that way)
3) UKET illegally suspend Parl'
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After having managed to equally enrage Remain *and* Leave people with my earlier comments about the Lib Dems' Revoke policy, let me try to set the record straight
I *do not* personally support the revocation of #Article50

Conversely, I think it makes sense tactically for the Lib Dems to advocate it at a General Election

It solidifies their Remain credentials, and also opens the door to a #PeoplesVote as a compromise position
Plus I also do not really have much time for the these "Revoke and reform" or "Revoke to reconsider" arguments. Ask those people calling for reform of the EU what reform they want and you get as many answers as there are questioners.
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Good morning and welcome to yet another #Brexit thread

Have just woken up this morning to see that the Government in the Lords backed down at 01:30 and agreed to give the #BennBill time to go through all stages in the Lords

So I'm going to grab a coffee and try to find...

1/n
the business for today for both Houses

2/n
And indeed, today's the day that the Lords starts on the #BennBill

No firm commitment on timing just yet but I will hopefully be here to cover it live

3/n

lordsbusiness.parliament.uk
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And let's get today's #Brexit thread started

#Letwin is expected to make an application for an emergency debate sometime after 17:30 which, if successful, will result in an emergency debate on Brexit sometime around 18:00

In the meantime the real stuff is still going on...

1/n
behind the scenes

Senior Tory rebels have been in to see Johnson and have basically come back out describing the meeting as being crap, and the Johnson is still sticking to the claim that the whip will be withdrawn from any Tory MP that votes against the government

2/n
All the current rumblings from Labour still seem to indicate that they won't back a vote calling for a General Election unless legislation is in place to stop a No Deal Brexit on 31 October, but that's still a case of wait and see

3/n
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My mother was twelve years old when Oswald Mosley held a rally in Swansea. Her maiden name could be construed as a Jewish name so she and her brothers and sisters endured all kinds of hate and bullying as a consequence. /2
2/ I was far younger than 12 when she taught me that fascism is hate. I can’t think of a time when I didn’t know what fascism was. It was an extraordinary thing to teach a young child, now I look back on it, but she would never allow us to say “I hate”. /3
3/ She had lived through the slump, the fascism of the 30s and the second world war. All before she was 25. She would say: “You are not to hate. Hate kills. If you hate, you kill.” Rather, we had to find a solution to whatever the thing was that we hated. /4
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#Brexit ALREADY costs UK £1bn pw as we Hit Holidays! @GoldmanSachs put that lower at £600m. but I'm looking at 2+% less GDP (than would have been); more Govt Debt (+interest); the growing impact of #Brexodus on jobs/taxtake; £devaln.&inflation creep, reducing Property values.1/20
@GoldmanSachs Am puzzled & mortified? that UK's so-called Major Political Parties @Conservatives @UKLabour seem umbilically disconnected? from the financial IMPACT of their recent (let's say) 'accidental collusions' and Brexit-Birth-Giving! Why the co-incidental & costly numeracy lapse? 2/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour Assuming that (eg) @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady are aware of UK's #Brexit financial haemorrhage? eg Govt Debt, Jobs/Tax, Businesses (all sizes), Individuals - there may be varying estimates? but agreement that a HUGE hit is ongoing! 3/20
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Today is possibly .@theresa_may's last day as PM, if .@BorisJohnson can command a majority (which is in some doubt...)

So it's a great opportunity to look back at some of the *highlights* of Mrs May's premiership in memes👇
13 JUL 2016: May was appointed as PM and named her Cabinet shortly thereafter, surprising many by giving 3 of the top #Brexit-related jobs to arch-brexiters Boris Johnson, David Davis & Liam Fox. Sheer folly, or genius in making them own what they'd sold? Sadly, the former😢
/1.
5 OCT 2016: With such a narrow result, the country could be forgiven for expecting May to propose a consensual solution, as Norway PM Erna Solberg had done in a similar situation. Most Remainers would've accepted #Norway.

May's #CitizensOfNowhere speech crushed all hope.
/2.
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So what is the impact of Johnson's personal difficulties, and stumbling media performances, on likely #Brexit outcomes?

I've tried to work it out in Series 3, V6 of my #BrexitDiagram
This has an 80% chance of Johnson winning, 20% chance for Hunt. This is based on the state of betting as outlined by @MSmithsonPB.

I will adjust that if chances for the candidates change.

I have then tried to work out what each of them would actually *do* once elected.
Outcomes, and trend in comparison to V5 from 13 June
General Election 61% ⬇️
#PeoplesVote 4% ⬇️
No Deal 19% ↔️
Further #Article50 Extension 8% (re-entry)
Brexit with a Deal 8% ⬆️
Read 4 tweets
Tired of #Brexit?

Then argue for a #PeoplesVote

Sounds odd. But let me explain.
There’s no majority for any specific Brexit variant in the Commons.

About 100 MPs want No Deal
200 MPs want the Deal that’s on the table
200 MPs want some non specified 🦄 Brexit
100 MPs want to Remain
So “just get on with it!” is a useless demand.

Get on with *what version* of Brexit exactly?
Read 11 tweets
Been holding off on posting this #Thread regarding the #LocalElection2019 going on in England and Northern Ireland, but the results are fascinating to me here in Scotland for sure. There is a clear #RemainBacklash going on and this is HUGE, shall go into more detail on why.
Clearly, the #LocalElections2019 is one of the biggest elections in history for the Lib Dems and the biggest night for the Green Party, there is been a massive shift towards these two parties over the usual Tories and Labour, but why is that? Clearly, #Brexit is a big part of why
How the Tories and Labour have handled #Brexit is nothing short of embarrassing, both these parties have refused to support a #PeoplesVote and give us a second say on leaving the EU. Yet Lib Dems and Green Party have been consistent since the get-go as remain parties.
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The @Telegraph is wrong to say MEPs represent a zombie Parliament.

They are chosen by you, the electorate, and work (yes, work) for a fully active and responsive legislature. #EPfactsUK Thread.
The European Parliament is jointly responsible for passing nearly 90% of new EU law.

See p.33 here ➡️ epgencms.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/upload… #EUlaw 2/
The current Parliament has passed 1128 legislative files since it first sat in July 2014.

See statistics here ➡️ europarl.europa.eu/sed/doc/news/c… 3/
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Morning! I'm Iain McIver, SPICe's EU researcher. Some reflections on #euco decision to extend the #article50 #Brexit process last night. See #council conclusions for more details data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/X… 1/10
#euco met in its EU27 formation meaning the UK Government was not part of the decision-making process. Instead, the Prime Minister spoke to #euco ahead of its considerations. 2/10
The UK will not now leave the European Union on 12 April. Instead a flexible extension has been granted to 31 October. If the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified before then, the UK will leave the EU at the end of the month in which the Agreement is ratified. 3/10
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#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n

You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

2/n
So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

3/n
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Thread:

I doubt the EU-27 will accept the PM’s new 22 May date for the extension of #Article50 #Brexit deadline for at least four reasons:
- They’ve been stung before by #TheresaMay saying she needs “just X weeks”, with that then turning out to be longer
- They know she needs time for the legislation, even if #MV4 gets through #Commons and that there will still be internal opposition to it at that stage
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"Deal or #NoDeal, that is the question." opens @MichelBarnier in our Breakfast Policy Briefing on the state of play on #Brexit.
"If the @HouseofCommons does not vote in favor of the agreement:
➡️#NoDeal
or ➡️extension of #Article50." explains @MichelBarnier at our Breakfast Polict Briefing.

"Then it is the responsability of the UK government to choose."
"We already have a deal, the one agreed on in november 2018." reminds @MichelBarnier our attentive audience.

"If the UK still want to leave in an ordely manner, this agreement is the only one." #Brexit
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"The [#ECJ] has ruled that a revocation should be "unequivocal & unconditional", suggesting that the ECJ would take a dim view of any attempt to [#RevokeArticle50] & then resubmit it..." But @joannaccherry says we can resubmit if we act in good faith. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Here's a thread with several links to what @joannaccherry has said in the House of Commons about our unilateral sovereign right to #RevokeArticle50 and perhaps to resubmit later if we so choose:
There is a massive irony in this whole question. #Brexit was seen as a way to 'free' a 'subject' UK from the #EU. But #Article50 recognizes that each member state of the EU is an independent state with a sovereign right to decide in its own constitutional way to leave the EU.
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THREAD 🧵🤓

We’re on to Round 2 of #IndicativeVotes today so I’ve updated my explainer #IV2

🗳 What are #Brexit Indicative Votes?

🤔 How will the process work?

💡What ideas have been tabled?

⏳ What might happen next?

🚨 Hopefully it’s worth a couple of minutes ☕️ 🚆 🚌
Last week MPs debated alternatives to the Prime Minister’s #Brexit plan.

This happened because MPs backed an idea by Conservative MP & former Minister, Sir Oliver Letwin, to give control of Commons business to backbench MPs so they could put forward their visions for #Brexit
Parliamentary procedure is full of quirks, but giving backbench MPs control of the Commons in this way isn’t the norm.

MPs chose to disapply a Commons rule - Standing Order 14(1) - which says that the Government usually (largely) controls what business is debated in the House.
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We have reached the end of the road with this Tory disaster, this quantum of #Brexit created & destroyed by & for Tories, a Frankenstein Brexit which now should tear to pieces the party that made it. Schrödinger's Brexitstein Monster, the movie. But what should @UKLabour do now?
First, it is really important for all of us in every party to know what Brexiters & #TheresaMay hoped we never would know: we were able to trigger this #Brexit attempt to become independent because by the terms of the TEU we were in fact independent & free to use #Article50.
As @joannaccherry has insisted in Parliament (something also said almost in passing by Kenneth Clarke), we can #RevokeArticle50 now to avert a disastrous #NoDealBrexit. That doesn't have to be the end of Brexiter hopes. It gives us the time that we need to reflect & rethink.
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The way the government has drafted this Motion to approve the Withdrawal Agreement tomorrow is really nasty.

Text here: theguardian.com/politics/blog/…
It's designed narrowly to fulfil the European Council's criteria so as to set 22 May as exit date.

But then the government would just sit on its hands until 12 April, and once that date is passed there would be no way back for UK as it couldn't organise an EP election.
Once you are beyond 12 April, asking for a further extension to the #Article50 period would be a legal nightmare.

So then, after 12 April, May just has to go "It's My Deal or No Deal".
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#euco #article50 extension decision was tough but rational. UK now has <3 weeks (until April 12, emergency summit pencilled in for April 10) finally to make up its mind. Parliament must now take control. Options, in diminishing order of *desirability* imho...thread follows./1
1. vote for Kyle-Wilson amendment, accepting her deal subject to 2nd 'confirmatory'referendum, then ask EU for longer extension, agreeing to hold European elections in UK...
2. revoke article 50 and start all over again.../2
3. Cross-party indicative vote majority for Norway Plus finally accepted by government (w/wout PM May), EU agrees to change Political Declaration, unchanged WA & Brexit by May 22
4. ditto, but only for plain vanilla customs union.../3
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The EU is focusing down on its choices for #Article50 extension - but that could create a serious potential for a 'no deal' cliff-edge at end of June. Bear with me. 1/Thread

The EU says it will be "legally unstable" if UK doesn't hold elections/have MEPs.

So that means if we want a long extension, we need to commit to hold EP elections on May 23. That means legislating in UK in April.

This cd put some heat on ERG/Brexiteers to back May deal. BUT/2
It could also mean that IF May opts for short extension (to June 30) and we go past that April deadline, then May 23 elctions without participating, then there is NO WAY BACK. Eeek.

Becuase if we get to June 29, and haven't held elections, then (on this basis) that's it. /3
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