Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Article50

Most recents (24)

#euco #article50 extension decision was tough but rational. UK now has <3 weeks (until April 12, emergency summit pencilled in for April 10) finally to make up its mind. Parliament must now take control. Options, in diminishing order of *desirability* imho...thread follows./1
1. vote for Kyle-Wilson amendment, accepting her deal subject to 2nd 'confirmatory'referendum, then ask EU for longer extension, agreeing to hold European elections in UK...
2. revoke article 50 and start all over again.../2
3. Cross-party indicative vote majority for Norway Plus finally accepted by government (w/wout PM May), EU agrees to change Political Declaration, unchanged WA & Brexit by May 22
4. ditto, but only for plain vanilla customs union.../3
Read 6 tweets
Article 50 site appears to be hosted on two single instances of @awscloud. Simple.

Over 1,000,000 votes and only a little bit of outage.

#cloud #devops #brexit #article50
Before it failed again I was writing python to have a look at who was the most popular MP...
Back up. Some "eventual consistency" at play between the .json generated data and the number shown on the site. But here are the vote counts from the 10 most popular MP districts.
Read 18 tweets
The EU is focusing down on its choices for #Article50 extension - but that could create a serious potential for a 'no deal' cliff-edge at end of June. Bear with me. 1/Thread

The EU says it will be "legally unstable" if UK doesn't hold elections/have MEPs.

So that means if we want a long extension, we need to commit to hold EP elections on May 23. That means legislating in UK in April.

This cd put some heat on ERG/Brexiteers to back May deal. BUT/2
It could also mean that IF May opts for short extension (to June 30) and we go past that April deadline, then May 23 elctions without participating, then there is NO WAY BACK. Eeek.

Becuase if we get to June 29, and haven't held elections, then (on this basis) that's it. /3
Read 10 tweets
The #Article50 extension conundrum facing the European Union is going to be nasty - whichever way #MV3 breaks next week. Some quick thoughts after chats.

1/Thread
Whichever way the result goes, the likelihood is that it will be close.

A narrow victory.

A narrow loss.

Both are a nightmare for the EU side as they ponder an extension. /2
First, a narrow win.

This falls short of the 'stable majority' EU been demanding and exposes them to the risk it all breaks down after fact.

In that scenario a 3 month extension - for the 'legals' as @simoncoveney - opens door a collapse and an accidental 'no deal' /3
Read 15 tweets
Days since the #Brexit referendum
9️⃣9️⃣3️⃣

Days since #Article50 triggered
7️⃣1️⃣5️⃣

Days since May agreed the Withdrawal Agreement
1️⃣0️⃣9️⃣
Days to go until #Brexit
1️⃣5️⃣

Hours to go until Brexit
3️⃣6️⃣6️⃣
Solutions in sight
⛔️ No Deal
⛔️ May's Deal
⛔️ #PeoplesVote (for now)
⛔️ General Election (is it even a solution?)
❓Some sort of delay
Read 10 tweets
ON THE BLOG: Following May's #Brexit defeat, Meg Russell and @alanjrenwick explore how long an extension to #Article50 we need, concluding May's suggestion of 2-3 months is not enough.

For various reasons...

THREAD (1/10)

constitution-unit.com/2019/03/12/how…

@uclspp @uclnews @UKandEU
Theresa May has previously suggested that we might ask for a ‘short, limited extension’ to #Article50, which should go ‘not beyond the end of June’. If a #NoDealBrexit is defeated tonight, as widely expected, MPs will vote on an extension on Thursday. (2/10)
But given that trying 'one more heave' to agree May's deal looks unrealistic, more major change is needed - and any such change takes time. First there would be a need to build support for a different kind of deal in Westminster (probably across party lines) and Brussels. (3/10)
Read 10 tweets
This is alarming. In all the ongoing chaos, might we suddenly find #Article50 mysteriously revoked at the last minute? Why would the UKIPGraph publish an op-ed "We're heading for the great Brexit trap - so why not stay in and wreck the EU instead?" telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/0…
Check out the last 3 paragraphs 😱 There was another with a similar suggestion, again in the Daily Telegraph recently, which I will try to hunt out and post later. Also BoJo said " ... we may as well stay in" in a speech in New Delhi, in the last few days.
And Farage has announced he will run as an MEP as (his) new Brexit Party candidate "if #Article50 is delayed". Maybe the inexplicable #GammonballRun is just his excuse for a series of Trump-style rallies, to his base?
Read 11 tweets
A #Brexit extension is “almost inevitable”
- Nicola Sturgeon to me earlier @FRANCE24

Scottish First Minister wants Labour’s Corbyn to
“get off the Brexit fence & put his weight behind [...] something that would break the deadlock”
#Scotland #SNP #F24
2/ Sturgeon on Theresa May:

“she should change her approach... 1st thing she should do is request an extension to #Article50

“My preference then would be...to go back to the people in another referendum- bcs people have so much more information now than in 2016”#Brexit #F24
3/
Nicola Sturgeon accuses both Theresa May & Jeremy Corbyn of
“probably trying to run the clock down as much as [each other] in all this.”
#Brexit #Article50 #PeoplesVote #F24 🇬🇧🇪🇺
Read 7 tweets
Please, can we just take a shortcut to the end of this never-ending Brexit cycle?

🛑 sending May or Ministers to Brussels to get something or other
🛑 the idea that the Withdrawal Agreement can be opened
🛑 the delusion that the Backstop can be changed

None of that works
The fundamentals are clear by now.

OPT1️⃣- No Deal Brexit
Who wants it?
A few dozen Tory crazies

Can they get it?
It's the default, but probably not - there's no majority for it in the Commons

Is it sensible?
No
OPT2️⃣- May's Brexit Deal (Hard Brexit)
Who wants it?
A rump of Tories in the middle of that party

Can they get it?
No. It lost by 230 votes. Minor amendments to it aren't going to be enough, &🇪🇺won't change Withdrawal Agreement

Sensible?
It's messy, but less bad than No Deal
Read 10 tweets
The German government on Wednesday nearly halved its 2019 economic growth forecast from 1.8% to 1%, citing #Brexit as the first among key reasons for the slowdown. The shock of no-deal Brexit is widely expected to cause a recession here and elsewhere.
The German minister for econ affairs @peteraltmaier said today that it is not really possible to prepare for a no-deal #Brexit in some sectors, also due to currency fluctuations etc
So the idea that the #EU is united in some sort of stoic view on no-deal #Brexit as highly manageable is not correct. In fact Chancellor #Merkel has spoken to Ireland's Varadkar about his intentions. Top politicians/officials here say it would be good if Ireland would reconsider
Read 7 tweets
I often agree with @EuroBriefing as I think he & colleagues offer some of the best insights on European politics. But the below is just unthinkable. Were the UK to unilaterally revoke Art.50, I'd bet a case would be put before the ECJ to stop this from happening.
Say UK stays in the #EU under Corbyn with the clear plan of triggering #Article50 a little down the line. What would a good EU lawyer do? She (because, let's face it, it would be a she 😉) would advice the EU institutions to bring the #UK before the #ECJ.
Why? Because, as a member-state, the UK would have breached Article 4 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) which lays down something very boring called the "principle of sincere co-operation" between the EU member-states and the EU itself.
Read 6 tweets
THREAD: The invocation of #Article50 was illegal- Brexit is BUILT ON SAND.

Follow @A50Challenge and challenge the government's flagrant subversion of our constitutional arrangment.
1) Article 50 notification is predicated on a decision that has no basis in law. Despite what many people were led to believe, Parliament has never delegated the withdrawal decision to the people and has never made the withdrawal decision itself.
2) The Government maintains that the 2016 EU Referendum was a decision to leave the EU – a decision “by the people”.
Read 15 tweets
At the Emmanuel Centre in Westminster waiting for the start of The Convention.
#ThinkAnewActAnew #PeoplesVote #stopbrexit
As I mentioned before, it's a very impressive lineup for @The_Convention_ today.
#ThinkAnewActAnew
The inimitable @HenryCPorter (who I've come across on other unrelated campaigns in the past) is opening events now (Lara Spirit, host for the morning is alongside).
#ThinkAnewActAnew
Read 110 tweets
What Has The EU Ever Done For US?

You hear politicians say

How about the

"EU Charter of Fundamental Rights"
EU Charter of Fundamental Rights

Preamble
Article 1 - Human dignity

Human dignity is inviolable. It must be respected and protected.
Read 38 tweets
From 9am, ECJ judges will be hearing cases for and against the UK unilaterally withdrawing its Article 50 notice. Chances are stacked against the anti-Brexit campaigners ft.com/content/a54cf3…
Case begins for the unilateral A50 supporters who want to take back control of the exit clause. Campaigners are pushing back against the Brits, the EU Commission and the EU Council
A key argument against cancelling Article 50 is that it would encourage EU governments to trigger "tactical" exits and withdraw them whenever they like. Supporters say it is purely "hypothetical" and shouldn't stop ECJ judges ruling in their favour
Read 36 tweets
I have long maintained that a second referendum on #Brexit is the only way out of the UK's current conundrum.

But a few aspects of this have been nagging at me.

Now having been put on the spot by @edaross I am going to explore this a bit more in a thread.

1/17
First, if a #PeoplesVote is to happen, it requires an extension of the #Article50 negotiation period - because it would take a good 20 weeks to organise such a referendum, as @ConUnit_UCL argue convincingly here:
constitution-unit.com/2018/10/09/how…

2/17
At the time of writing we are 123 days, or just over 18 weeks away from exit day 29.3.2019

If Commons has its "Meaningful Vote" (that failing might be the starting gun for a referendum process) on 10 December that is 104 days, less than 15 weeks from exit day. Too tight.

3/17
Read 17 tweets
Waiting for the start of the Brexit What's The Deal event at Bracknell Open Learning Centre organised by Berkshire for Europe.
We'll be live tweeting the event, so watch this space.
If you are at the event, use the hashtag #WhatsTheDealBracknell on social media.
It promises to be an interesting evening, particularly with the news this afternoon that Railways Minister @JoJohnsonUK has resigned from the government and spoken out in favour of a #PeoplesVote on Brexit rather than the choice of no deal or a bad deal.
Our speakers this evening are:
Bracknell MP @DrPhillipLeeMP who was one of the early MPs to resign their ministerial post over Brexit (for the right reasons)
Read 69 tweets
We all know now that #VoteLeaveBrokeTheLaw. We all know that Arron Banks has been referred to the NCA for investigation, after @MetPoliceUK declined to look into the @ElectoralCommUK's evidence. MPs are "calling for a pause" in #Brexit.

theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/n… /1
Unless EU-27 agree to an extension of the two-year #Article50 period, the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019. Theresa May clearly stil hopes for some kind of deal that will keep the City of London happy enough with #Brexit: but #NoDealBrexit is a very real possibility. /2
#NoDealBrexit is disastrous, but the UK is woefully unprepared for the massive changes to ensue with any kind of #Brexit: the Tories have treated the Brexit negotiations as a game in which they held all the cards, & in consequence have failed utterly to make any progress. /3
Read 18 tweets
@TomTugendhat @Andrew_Adonis Let's look at the facts:
1. The Ref MPs voted for was advisory
2. Cameron then made it binding in the minds of voters who don't understand the niceties of our constitution, which was shabby & underhand of him, because he created a political imperative to take the Ref advice

/1.
@TomTugendhat @Andrew_Adonis 3. Parliament never formally made the decision to leave, but gave Mrs May the power to trigger #Article50 through the shameful A50 Bill (launched before its rubbish White Paper was released), which converted Parliament into an irrelevant rubber stamp in the #Brexit process.

/2.
@TomTugendhat @Andrew_Adonis 4. Under pressure from the Economic Ruin Group (ERG), Mrs May triggered A50 prematurely, without impact assessments and, crucially, without agreement in her party as to what form #Brexit should take, let alone a plan.

/3.
Read 20 tweets
In my most recent blog post I argue that when a political crisis hits in 🇬🇧, 🇪🇺 is going to have to contemplate extending the #Article50 period.

Blog post is here:
jonworth.eu/the-political-…

This thread examines some of the aspects of extending Article 50 (or not)

1/12
First some background - I have an older blog post here about why extending the Article 50 period would be a good idea:
jonworth.eu/transition-per…

And the relevant part of Article 50 is shown here - unanimous agreement of EU-27 needed to extend

2/12
Extending the Article 50 period is not something either side really wants.

BUT No Deal #Brexit is the thing both sides should absolutely fear, especially 🇬🇧 but even the 🇪🇺, whose Member States (especially 🇮🇪) would take a major GDP hit.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
Backed by 70% of voters (#LocalElections2018) our two major parties aim to take UK down to the minor leagues of sub-#G20 growth, supported by NO detailed plans as to the costs, complexities & consequences of such bizarre recklessness. Not just insane, but amazingly short-sighted!
2. Is this a case of who blinks first? Surely I, and fellow well-informed remainers, are not in exclusive possession of key economic facts and trends? Con/Lab MUST have these too? Maybe everyone should check the latest @guardian piece by @williamnhutton!
3. People who think Brexit (in any form!) would be easy, painless or cost-free are very sorely deluded! Maybe the 70% who just voted Con/Lab in #LocalElections2018 should have been asking 'that question' of their wannabe councillors? before parting with their votes? Too late now!
Read 14 tweets
The stock statement in response to #Brexit petitions needs to be called out. "There must be no attempts to remain inside the EU, no attempts to rejoin it through the back door, & no 2nd Ref" is fundamentally UNCONSTITUTIONAL as it binds Parliament and the People too.

/1.
Parliamentary sovereignty means one Parlt cannot bind another. This invalidates the "cannot reverse #Brexit" subtext of the above statement, as we've had a general election since #Article50 was triggered, so technically this is a different Parlt not bound by the previous one. /2.
The idea the People cannot speak again is ludicrous. It'd take a MAJORITY to #ExitFromBrexit. How is that undemocratic?Given the false prospectus on which #Brexit was sold, the chicanery & cheating of #VoteLeave & Brexit impact, it's the DUTY of Govt to give us #FinalSay Ref. /3.
Read 6 tweets
On #Article50 day here’s a reminder of how things stand re citizens’ rights and what’s been agreed for @britishineurope and @the3million

Last week the EU & the UK ‘signed off’ on Citizens Rights, stating that they will now be protected, a claim repeated today by @DavidDavisMP
2. While true for those who live and work or are retired in 1 country (e.g. France) and do not wish or need to move across the EU to live or for work, thousands of UK nationals in the EU27 will be deprived of their right to earn a living legally under the terms of the agreement.
3. Here are the main areas of agreement:

Let’s take an example of a Brit living in France. Broadly, what he or she can expect under the agreement are: confirmation of rights in France and the possibility to acquire permanent residence or whichever legal status replaces it.
Read 30 tweets
THREAD: May & Corbyn have perpetuated a lie, so successfully that even Remain politicians fall in line: The people decided to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum,

*Referendum was a decision* was exposed as untrue in the Miller case, but the lie persists. #A50Challenge
So why do they persist with a lie? B/c the ref was advisory. Brexit was supposed to be May's policy decision, then for Parliament's scrutiny. But Brexit is a stupid policy. May didn't want to own it or have Parliament scrutinize it. Easier to bypass this procedure w *ppl decided*
*Cameron promised to implement* is irrelevant to the legal position. Legislation was only for advisory ref. May overrode the legal status of an Act of Parliament, illegal in itself IMO & bypassed the req't to give notice to EU *in accordance with [UK] constitutional requirements*
Read 10 tweets

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