Thread by @ConUnit_UCL

ON THE BLOG: Following May's #Brexit defeat, Meg Russell and @alanjrenwick explore how long an extension to #Article50 we need, concluding May's suggestion of 2-3 months is not enough.

For various reasons...

THREAD (1/10)

constitution-unit.com/2019/03/12/how…

@uclspp @uclnews @UKandEU

Theresa May has previously suggested that we might ask for a ‘short, limited extension’ to #Article50, which should go ‘not beyond the end of June’. If a #NoDealBrexit is defeated tonight, as widely expected, MPs will vote on an extension on Thursday. (2/10)

But given that trying 'one more heave' to agree May's deal looks unrealistic, more major change is needed - and any such change takes time. First there would be a need to build support for a different kind of deal in Westminster (probably across party lines) and Brussels. (3/10)

Crucially if there were a new deal it would then need to be legislated for, with a bill passing both Houses of Parliament. So there would be just a few weeks to agree the revised deal, otherwise we could end up asking for a further extension (which is difficult). (4/10)

Hence MPs who aspire to reaching a deal to depart the EU in an orderly manner should be thinking about pressing for a longer extension. (5/10)

Of course, many MPs support a further #Brexit referendum (#PeoplesVote). Previous Unit work has set out the timetable for that: around 22 weeks (5 months) is needed for legislation, question testing and the campaign itself. (6/10)

constitution-unit.com/2018/08/30/how…

So MPs who support a #PeoplesVote should now be pressing for a longer extension period. (7/10)

Other MPs favour creating a deliberative citizens' assembly to consider the #Brexit options and try to break the impasse. This could be useful, but design, recruitment and deliberation would take around six months. (8/10)

We set out the options here: constitution-unit.com/2019/01/24/cou…

So MPs who favour a citizens’ assembly on #Brexit should also be pressing for a longer extension. (9/10)

In short, there is very little that could be achieved in a 3-month extension, except avoiding an immediate 'no deal', and 'kicking the can down the road'. Presented with a government motion setting out a short #Article50 extension, many MPs may want to amend it. (10/10)