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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
NBA playoffs/championship odds:
53eig.ht/2En8Fdc
Personally, I like Milwaukee more than our algorithm does, but (i) the Bucks have quite a few injury issues and (ii) they don't have very much playoff experience, which actually matters a fair bit historically.
We have a bunch of thoughts on the NBA playoffs here. Our model says there are 3 teams with a real chance to beat the Warriors: the Bucks, Raptors and Rockets. Not all of our writers agree with the model, however! (I do, but I'm a sucker for the Raptors.) 53eig.ht/2UPBDJM
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Trump has been screaming these talking points for a year and they haven't moved public opinion in his favor. He's convinced his base and no one else. Even the Barr letter, which the mainstream media treated as quite favorable for Trump, didn't really swing public opinion.
Trump has a 41.6% approval rating in a very good economy. That's a LOT lower than you'd expect given the underlying conditions. Republicans just lost 40 House seats. Voters *do* care about all the extracurricular stuff.
I'm wary of the implication that the public can't be trusted to think for itself and weigh the Mueller Report along with all the other reasons they might vote for or against Trump. In a democracy, the main mechanism for holding people accountable is elections.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Basically your view on this should come down to whether you prefer a more lower-case-d democratic or a more lower-case-r republican system of government. There are a lot of Democrats in the responses advocating for republicanism.
Basically this (which is, you know, from an actual Constitutional scholar, not just me trolling). vox.com/policy-and-pol…
Democrats surely have every right to make their case for impeachment and seek to persuade the public. But right now, ~55% of voters oppose impeachment, even though only ~40% approve Trump. In a democracy, IMO it's not just politically wise but *normatively* wise to consider that.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
In his conclusion to Volume I (coordination), Mueller says that the Trump campaign was "in some instances" receptive to Russian offers to coordinate.

That's something Barr left out of his letter, which mentioned the offers but not the campaign's receptiveness.
Overall, the impression one gets from Vol. I is there was rather explicit flirting between the Trump campaign and Russia, even some making out, but it was a sloppy night and they didn't get around to hooking up, although they might have if circumstances had been a bit different.
Again, the biggest possible exception—where there may have been hooking up?—seems to be Manafort sharing internal polling w/ Kilimnik, who the report says has "ties to Russian intelligence". Mueller can't account for Manafort's purpose in sharing the data or what happened to it.
Read 3 tweets

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RJ Barker
@dedbutdrmng
Dear Twitter. Here is my Easter Sermon on the fact that people are basically good. Please turn to page 50 in your Hymn books and find 'I am what I am' by Ms Gloria Gaynor
We are in the late 80's/early 90's. I am in my ASTOUNDINGLY un-worldly late teens going to meet some friends in Leeds, a town I have never been to before. They ask me to meet them in The New Penny. Give me directions and a time.
For those who are unaware. The New Penny is Leeds best known gay bar, I may look like a girl and be pretty effeminate but I've always been straight. Did I clock that a trick was being played on me? Notice it was all men?

No. Because un-worldly. It was just loud and full.
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Julian Mozo
@JulianMozo
Hilo con la cuenta regresiva: 9 días para el retiro de la 20 en el AT&T Center. La importancia es tal q los Spurs armaron una hermosa subhome con videos, fotos, hitos y opiniones de ex compañeros.
nba.com/spurs/graciasm…
#GraciasManu es el hashtag para que todos participen. #NBA
La importancia del evento es tal que las entradas siguen subiendo: las más caras, en las filas pegadas a la cancha, ya superaron los 2.700 dólares en reventa.
En el sitio StubHub podés ver todos los precios en pesos: de $4.283 a $111.244. stubhub.com.ar/entradas-san-a… #NBA #GraciasManu
Serán los tickets más caros de la temporada, pese a que el duelo ante los Cavs no es atractivo y quedará en 2do plano pese a que el equipo necesita ganar para mejorar su puesto pensando en playoffs. El promedio arrancó en U$s 600 cuando la media era de 197. #GraciasManu #NBA
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Julian Mozo
@JulianMozo
Hoy cumple 56 años el mejor de siempre. GOAT.
Ya armé hilo con su regreso en Washington.
Acá dejo otro con argumentos de su juego (e intangibles) que lo hicieron único. Ilustrado con videos (varios de @HistoryJumpman) para recordar lo increíble que fueron nuestras noches con #MJ
En los primeros años #NBA, digamos 8/9, Jordan gobernó en el aire, por resumirlo de alguna forma. Era tremendo en el suelo, pero apabullaba con su capacidad atlética: velocidad y potencia, con elasticidad y cambios de dirección, y una irreal capacidad de salto. Un gato volador.
“Estamos en presencia de quizás el mejor atleta que ha jugado en algún deporte. Todos nosotros sólo pudimos soñar con las cosas que hizo Jordan”.
Lo dijo Magic Johnson en este video y podemos rubricarlo todos.
Atleta potente y rápido, pero también creativo y elegante. Unico.
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People of Space: Ute
@People_Of_Space
Hi everyone! :) I'm Ute (pronounced like “Oohter” with the emphasis on the first syllable. Equivalents are Audrey in English, Aude/Odette in French), and first of all I would like to thank @Taraustralis for the privilege of letting me host “People of Space” this week!
@Taraustralis Another special thank you goes to my direct predecessors, @marmatheghost and @martinesrymd, for their great contributions! Both have inspired some of the things I intend to talk about over the next 7 days.
@Taraustralis @MarmaTheGhost @martinesrymd Tara created @people_of_space so people from all walks of life could talk about their passion to a larger audience. Her intention will in fact also be this week’s motto: “Space is for Everyone”.
Welcome aboard; enjoy the ride! :)
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Paul Serran
@paul_serran
1) A #QAnon thread about "Revolutionary attitude" - while I plow along a complex, disturbing and slippery thematic thread.

👾

#GreatAwakening
2) This is a theme I first covered in March 14, 2018.

3) At that point, the main problem clearly was patriots whining about the pace of prosecutions, and I also dealt the need for people to red-pill those loved ones around them.

"Be busy doing the revolution, no time to complain" was my motto.
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Julian Mozo
@JulianMozo
Se retira un jugador único que no nació predestinado a ser figura pero llegó a convertirse en una estrella mundial. Alguien que fue cortado de una selección bahiense a los 15 años, que recién llegó a la Selección mayor a los 21 y ganó su primer título a los 22. Nada lo detuvo...
Se retira un jugador que se construyó como estrella. Que nació con talentos, claro, pero que tuvo la mentalidad, inteligencia, sacrificio y determinación para trabajar cada día en mejorar los otros, para ocultar debilidades y potenciar virtudes. Ese tal vez sea su mayor legado.
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