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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Trump has been screaming these talking points for a year and they haven't moved public opinion in his favor. He's convinced his base and no one else. Even the Barr letter, which the mainstream media treated as quite favorable for Trump, didn't really swing public opinion.
Trump has a 41.6% approval rating in a very good economy. That's a LOT lower than you'd expect given the underlying conditions. Republicans just lost 40 House seats. Voters *do* care about all the extracurricular stuff.
I'm wary of the implication that the public can't be trusted to think for itself and weigh the Mueller Report along with all the other reasons they might vote for or against Trump. In a democracy, the main mechanism for holding people accountable is elections.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This is why I don't get the Takes that are like "Biden doesn't have a message that will resonate with today's Democrats." This stuff isn't trendy but I'd guess it ought to have fairly broad, meat-and-potatoes appeal, especially with older Democrats.
Also helps Biden that he doesn't have to spend a lot of time explaining who he is. A lot of the candidates' elevator pitches are mishmashes of biography, values & policy. It's hard to cram in all 3. If you can dispense with the bio, you can focus more effectively on the other 2.
Also, these policy views are fairly squarely within the Democratic mainstream (while also happening to be reasonably popular with general election voters). He's not exactly running as a centrist.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
As someone who was an "ambassador" for The Correspondent—not a paid position, just someone who likes the ideas/people behind the publication and so helped to promote its crowdfunding campaign—I think you should read this. bit.ly/2vyg95P
FWIW, I had the same impression as @zainabshah: that they were "coming to the US". That can mean a lot of things; I don't care about a physical office. But an English-language expansion run from abroad with just 1-2 US correspondents isn't what I thought I was getting behind.
Maybe my impression is/was wrong. But their first/only US-based hire (@zainabshah) had same impression. FWIW, I also communicated this to them privately a few weeks ago. I hope they'll find a better way to address people's concerns rather than just calling it a misunderstanding.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
From a tactical standpoint, I *think* I like it that Bernie's campaign is trying to shape a narrative around electability, just because if you don't shape the narrative, the media does instead, and that's usually worse. With that said, it's pretty risky in some respects.
Bernie currently leads Trump by 3-4 points in the poll average. That's not bad; better than any Dem other than Biden, who leads by ~7. But it's not much of a lead (same as Hillary in 16!) & easy to see it declining as he gets more scrutiny, both from other Dems and from Fox News.
p.s. General election polls aren't really very (if at all) meaningful or predictive this far out; to the extent campaigns treat them as salient, however—as Sanders's campaign has—they invite some challenging news cycles if the numbers turn in an unfavorable direction later on.
Read 3 tweets

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