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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I would like to cash this in now:

gist.github.com/patio11/3f159b…
Grading myself as correct w/r/t to insolvency, correct with respect to commingled funds between Bitfinex/Tether, undecided w/r/t degree which insolvency was caused by speculating with customer funds vs. the conversion by Crypto Capital Corp, ...
not-public-knowledge-yet-but-feeling-confident with respect to this having been an open secret for the crypto powers-that-be.

And for the 2018 one:

Correct on Tether being ~backed, correct on FBO, incorrect on jurisdiction (was Puerto Rico at that point) and...
I was definitely early w/r/t to predicting one of their accounts getting frozen, which you can either round to wrong or round to right over the course of the next few weeks depending on your preferences.
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More from @patio11 see all

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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
The tastes of hyperconsuming outliers are by definition not the tastes of the population at large. Some business models, however, cause them to be quite influential.
Ad-supported models were one almost immune to this. Newspapers / TV stations basically can’t detect a difference between someone who uses the artifact once a week and someone who uses it 40h+ a week, and if they could, they’d be worth approximately the same amount of money.
This changed with pageview based online advertising, because a hyperconsuming outlier generates many more ad impressions.

The thing that really kicked this issue into the public spotlight, though, was recommendation engines which in optimizing for engagement made outliers.
Read 6 tweets
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
Tyler Cowen on how the biggest change in daily life from tech in next 20 years will be due to improvements in cars:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

I've got an alternate one and, forewarned, this is going to be aesthetically very unpleasant for some people:
I think cooking will, by 2040, be a niche activity like e.g. gardening or sewing, not something which one would reasonably expect from substantially every household.

It's getting squeezed by a combination of long-running social changes, cultural norms, and...
... rapid innovation in business models caused by both the Internet, the rise of subscription- and marketplace-enabled commerce, and enormous innovation in delivery networks.
Read 4 tweets
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
New front in ransomware: someone is using disclosed Git hosting passwords to wipe the repo and then ransom back a copy for ~$500 in Bitcoin.

about.gitlab.com/2019/05/03/sus…
"That shouldn't work, because Git means that the company will have a full local copy."

It doesn't need to work 100% of the time or even 1% of the time, because this will be substantially automated, and the staff cost of figuring who at the company has the most recent repo > $500
I hesitate to say the following but since it might help at least one startup out there:

If you have your repository accessed by an external party in this fashion, irrespective of whether you have backups, you need to take a deep breath, then push the Big Red Button. Bad news.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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David Silver (SILVER MILLER)
@dcsilver
0/ Sometimes people only look at a Complaint and then ignore the lawsuit as it moves forward. That's a mistake. Sometimes the Defendant's response is just as important for either what they say or don't say. #Bitfinex #LetsDiveIn - iapps.courts.state.ny.us/fbem/DocumentD…
1) #Bitfinex moves to vacate the #PreliminaryInjunction - Obvious move, because the #PreliminaryInjunction as written (especially as it relates to the discovery) is VERY bad for them. The more people say Tether is backed by 74% is also bad...
2) Page 1, Paragraph 2 says in BOLD that the parties have been "cooperating for months." Ummmm, if #Bitfinex had been cooperating for months, it wouldn't find itself in this position. The amount of pages produced does not = cooperation. #MyGuessIsItWasCloserToStonewalling
Read 15 tweets
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Chris Burniske
@cburniske
On one hand, I’m impressed with how $BTC has held given the #Tether news, on the other hand the ~$200 spread between @bitfinex & other exchanges is making me queasy.
Hardly selling off after getting bad news is something we’d expect in a bull market (which I don’t consider us to be in yet despite the hurrahs around golden crosses), but the non-reaction (thus far) has opened my eyes on $BTC sentiment a bit.
On the other hand, we’ll see if Bitfinex can withstand the run on the bank & what further Tether boots drop.

With $BTC needing to retrace to either $4K or the 200 week SMA to have a rock solid base for the bull market to come (IMO), we could get our last great opp of 2019.
Read 4 tweets
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Caitlin Long 🔑
@CaitlinLong_
1/ STUNNED but not surprised by #Bitfinex #Tether news out of #NewYork. I'll let other cryptolawyers analyze it but here are two macro thoughts: (1) There's a big double standard here. (2) Exchanges, clean up your act--cryptographically prove your solvency
2/ First, the double-standard. Why didn't the NY AG throw the Martin Act at Merrill Lynch for doing something actually quite similar from 2009-12? Seriously, why the double standard??? Quoting the SEC's press release here: sec.gov/news/pressrele…
3/ "The maneuver freed up billions of dollars per week from 2009-12 that Merrill Lynch used to finance its own trading activities. Had Merrill Lynch failed in the midst of these trades, the firm’s customers would have been exposed to a massive shortfall in the reserve account."
Read 8 tweets
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Jason Pepas
@cellularmitosis
Let’s start a long-running thread about structured editors. If you find a link or make some progress, post it! @jdan @jaredforsyth @HarshilShah1910
Presentation about Deuce, a structured editor for s-expressions
My progress this weekend towards a structured editor prototype: gist.github.com/cellularmitosi…
Read 8 tweets
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Leena📎🧝🏼‍♀️ Alv
@LeenaJohansson
Är du oroad över att demokrati och de mänskliga rättigheterna är i fara? Utveckling i världen och här hemma tyder på det. Du som vill göra något för att lyfta fram det viktiga med samtal om demokrati kan nu att agera. Läs tråden
röstamermänskligt.se
#röstamermänskligt
Alla goda röster behövs för att komma bort från den enkelspåriga retoriken där gruppers gälla mot varann.
#röstemermänskligt är en partipolitiskt och religiöst obunden grupp från skilda bakgrunder med en gemensam nämnare: ett mänskligt samhälle
Valkampanjen är öppen för alla. Du behöver inte vara expert. Det du kan göra är att sprida kunskap, informera och samtala om mänskliga rättigheter under #röstamermänskligt eller irl, på gator och torg, med dina bekanta och familjer.
Read 8 tweets
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Robert-Jan den Haan
@erjeetjeh
THREAD: Some takeaways from the article published today by @FTM_nl on #Tether / #Bitfinex (article is in Dutch). I worked with @thomasbollen on the research behind the article and the leads that provided were followed up by Thomas. Hope you’ll read & share ftm.nl/artikelen/ing-…
1/ The article first discusses many, often separately reported, facts about Tether and Bitfinex, i.e. Paradise papers, loss of banking, break with audit company, +800m tethers in Jan, tetherreport.com, and adds all sorts of details to provide an in-depth longread.
2/ While doing research into Tether and Bitfinex, we stumbled upon an ING bank account. The article particularly describes results of subsequent research steps taken by Thomas on this Dutch link. It provides some new insights, the main takeaways are outlined below.
Read 13 tweets

Trending hashtags

#BenedictoXVI #SantoTomas #Coccopalmerio #Re #Stuttgart #Cartagena #Bittrex #Wildbienenhotel #Grassi #Bestäubung #EtherX #A #Fear #Bienenvölker #Pfanzen #Wuerl #röstemermänskligt #PederastiaClerical #Sammlerinnen #McCarrick #Washington #Golem #OpusDei #PedroGutiérrezFarías #Tether
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