Thread by @uk_domain_names

In the 2014 European Elections, the votes broke down as follows (excluding regional parties such as SNP & Plaid Cymru)
UKIP: 26.6%
Labour: 24.4%
Tories: 23.1%
Green: 6.9%
Liberal Democrats: 6.6%

Now, recent polling shows the Tories shedding votes rapidly.

However, the Brexit Party seems to be hitting a high water mark (at the moment) of around where UKIP ended up last time, and UKIP is never going to muster enough votes to win MEPs. All they're doing is draining votes away.

So if the pro-Remain parties i.e Green/LD/Change UK TIG can match or exceed their 2014 totals (and in the case of Change UK TIG keep par with Green/LD) then they have a great chance of picking up more MEPs.

Why? Because the Tory vote has cratered. But the Brexit Party's being dragged down by UKIP (like driving with the handbrake on) so that they're kept at about UKIP's old totals. Means a different distribution of MEPs, with the Tories getting fewer.

And of course there's the Labour wildcard. What, if anything, will their European election manifesto say about Brexit when it's put together tomorrow? Will it be squarely for a second referendum with Remain on the ballot, or will it be a wishy washy word salad of compromise?

Because if Labour flub it, it wouldn't take a huge transfer of votes to the 3 pro-Remain parties to allow them to pick up seats (realistically, none of the pro-Remain parties are going to get more than 1 MEP per region each, unless there's a staggering increase in turnout).

So that actually makes Change UK TIG a useful force: so long as it ends up above UKIP and doesn't drag Green/LD down but steals votes from elsewhere, it could end up putting "bonus" MEPs in the pro-Remain camp that Green/LD alone never could have gained.

If that all looks confusing, it's because of the brain twisting d'Hondt system, which offers PR but only within each voting area. And it's that that effectively caps the Green/LD/Change UK TIG parties at an MEP each per area, because they would need a giant vote share to get 2.

Summary: if the pro-Remain parties can bump up their vote share a bit from 2014 (and Change UK TIG can stay competitive in its first outing) they *all* have a decent chance of picking up more MEPs than in 2014.

Here's an example based on a recent poll. Notice how the Brexit Party's basically stolen the UKIP vote, but Green and Change UK TIG have done well and LD have kept pace with last time. Means more seats for G/CHUK and maybe LD too because Tories much worse.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1122459188347723779

Remember: this is not a first past the post system, nor is it true PR. It is PR by region. And that caps the realistic chance of success for the smaller parties at 1 MEP per region per party maximum. Unless there's a sudden *massive* swing AND *massive* turnout, that is.