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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Litmus test for Labour manifesto position on Brexit:
- 15 words or less: good (e.g. "Second referendum on any Brexit deal, with Remain on the ballot.")
- 25 words or less: hmm
- 50 words or less: alarm bells
- 100 words or less: alarm bells, sirens and whistles
- 100+ words: RIP
For comparison...
Lib Dems: "Stop Brexit"
Change UK TIG: "Remain. People's Vote."
See, this is the level of clarity I'm talking about... It can be done!
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More from @uk_domain_names see all

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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Here's the list of all the candidates standing in the European elections. Note that you vote for a party not a particular candidate. Only the candidates near/at the top of each party's list have any chance of actually becoming MEPs.
inews.co.uk/news/politics/…
To explain that a little more, take the example of a party that has 8 candidates standing in SE England and that won 2 MEPs last time around. Realistically, they're not going to do more than 1 better than that. So only their top 3 candidates have any relevance at all.
The other 5 candidates are just eye candy to attract attention. There are no circumstances in which they're going to become MEPs. For the smaller parties, we're looking at 0 or 1 candidate per region in with a chance no matter how deep a slate.
Read 4 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
Understanding the European Elections
- PR by region (except in NI)
- MEPs in each region win their seats according to the d'Hondt method
- Small parties can only get 0-1 MEP per region under d'Hondt
- Threshold to gain an MEP depends on vote distribution *within that region*
- You vote, in your region, for a party not a candidate
- Candidates are allocated from party lists. Each party standing in a region has put forward a list of candidates in a particular order. If they win 1 MEP, the top candidate gets in. 2 MEPs, top 2 candidates get in. etc.
- Better to do well in a particular region or regions than uniformly average (e.g. 7% of the national vote could give a party 0 MEPs if that's also 7% in each region, but several MEPs if it's 15% in a couple of regions and 0% in the rest)
Read 9 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
In the 2014 European Elections, the votes broke down as follows (excluding regional parties such as SNP & Plaid Cymru)
UKIP: 26.6%
Labour: 24.4%
Tories: 23.1%
Green: 6.9%
Liberal Democrats: 6.6%

Now, recent polling shows the Tories shedding votes rapidly.
However, the Brexit Party seems to be hitting a high water mark (at the moment) of around where UKIP ended up last time, and UKIP is never going to muster enough votes to win MEPs. All they're doing is draining votes away.
So if the pro-Remain parties i.e Green/LD/Change UK TIG can match or exceed their 2014 totals (and in the case of Change UK TIG keep par with Green/LD) then they have a great chance of picking up more MEPs.
Read 11 tweets

Related threads

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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
@SakuraNoSeirei
#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n
You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

2/n
So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

3/n
Read 92 tweets
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Christopher James
@ChrisJames_90
THREAD 🧵🤓

🗳 What are #Brexit Indicative Votes?

🤔 How will the process work?

💡What ideas have been tabled?

🚨 Bare with me on this one... hopefully it’s worth a couple of minutes ☕️ 🚆 🚌
On Monday, MPs approved Sir Oliver Letwin’s proposal to give control of the Commons Order Paper on Wednesday 27 March to backbench MPs so that they could hold indicative votes on alternatives to the Prime Minister’s #Brexit deal.
The decision to back ‘The Letwin Amendment’ was seen as controversial as it disapplied a Commons rule - Standing Order 14(1) - which says that the Government largely controls what business is debated in the House.
Read 25 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So the #brexit debate is still fogged by confused and wishful thinking.

Here's what I think I know, after chats with both sides. 1/Thread
Let's start with the negotiation in Brussels where @Geoffrey_Cox is trying to secure enough changes to the backstop to change his legal advice that the Irish backstop is a potentially permanent trap.

There was a reason he didn't make his promised speech last week... /2
@Geoffrey_Cox It's because he's struggling (and going to struggle) to get what the ERG wants: either a 'time-limit' or an 'exit mechanism' from the Irish backstop.

My understanding is that discussion is not on time limits, but on "elucidating" the exit-mechanism process/ 3
Read 20 tweets
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KidTempo
@KidTempo
I actually have his book on the desk behind me. Much like Machiavelli's The Prince, it's a manual on how to be a complete and utter bastard (and win). Many of the chapters point to why Leave won, others to why Remain lost. Based on its content, #FBPE need to get its hands dirty.
The article is very different, and it's Leavers that are the narcissists - they hold a belief in something and won't accept being called up on it, deny any facts they're shown as fake news and propaganda, while never questioning their own sources.
I have #FBPE in my bio, and it's because I value Freedom of Movement. I have benefited from it, as have my friends and family. I want to keep it, I want my fellow UK citizens to keep it, and I want EU residents in the UK to keep it too.
Read 71 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
Having calmed down slightly I now realise John McDonnells position of a Deal/no deal #Brexit ref if they can't force a GE is unrealistic independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
1/ chequers shows there is unlikely to be a deal acceptable to the EU and the europhobes in the tory party #Brexit so its likely that no deal #Brexit is the only available #Brexit and therefore there is unlikely to be a choice of deal or no deal to start with
2/ if May does comeback with a deal it will need labour support to pass Labour would have to choose between backing it thus forgoing any chance of bringing down the government and thus the GE they say they want and angering the labour movement or voting it down
Read 8 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) #Brexit, alt right & Labour positioning
One for the @OwenJones84 @mattzarb and @jeremycorbyn 's of the world

The seems to be a weird disconnect in Labour & it's commentators

They'll protest about a certain recent visit & about far right supporters of Robinson

But not Brexit
2) this is plain bizarre. Brexit, nationalism, alt right, authoritarian gov. - it's all connected, it's all part of the same fascist beast.
Protesting about bits of it is like saying "I don't like the look of that Lion's paws but I'm perfectly happy with my head in its mouth"
3) as successive Tory PMs have learned over & over, you can't placate far righters - populists & zealots don't do compromise, any olive branch is a sign of weakness.

Labour party position on #Brexit is exactly that kind of appeasement
Read 12 tweets

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#Brexit #amendments #Clause #Labour #EUWithdrawalBill #PeoplesVote #Noes #GeneralElection #EUCO #compromise #PMQs #HouseOfCommons #Amendment21 #NoDeal #BBCqt #ProjectFear #AIQ #Margin #Ayes #SOS #DUP #StopBrexitSaveDemocracy #GE2017 #Conservatives #A50
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