Thread by @PalmerReport

1) Justin Amash deserves immense credit for doing the right thing on a crucial matter. But he’s not exactly sacrificing himself. This won’t hurt him in his moderate district. Nor would a retaliatory primary challenge from the right. This matters, because it’s a roadmap.

2) Amash is the prototype of a congressional Republican who can safely call for Trump’s Impeachment: moderate constituency, immune to Trump’s retaliation, and this could springboard him to bigger things later. He’s far from the only GOP in Congress who fits this description.

3) Amash is doing the right thing, but he probably benefits from it. Will other House Republicans in situations similar to Amash immediately follow him in calling for impeachment? No, they’ll probably wait for confirmation of how this strategy plays out for him.

4) But the point is, and one I’ve been making since early 2017, is that there was ALWAYS a hypothetical threshold at which the GOP would throw Trump under the bus to try to save itself. And the first GOPers to do it would be the ones from moderate states/districts.

5) Lindsey Graham and some others aside, most GOPers in the House & Senate are not cartoon characters. They want to get re-elected first and foremost. They care about that far more than they do about propping Trump up. Their support for him is based on whether it’s good for them.

6) It’s tougher for GOP Senators to embrace impeachment because most of the GOP money runs through McConnell, so they can’t go against his wishes, and he clearly hasn’t reached his personal threshold for dumping Trump to benefit himself. But that threshold nonetheless exists.

7) McConnell is up for re-election in 2020. Red state but his approval rating there is abysmal. If he eventually concludes Trump will cost him his seat, or cost him his majority, he’d finish Trump off in a heartbeat.

8) We’re now at one House GOP vote for impeachment, and zero Senate GOP votes. We’re a long way away from anything. But Amash just isn’t some self sacrificing anomaly. It’s a reminder that every GOPer has their threshold where they’d dump Trump if it was best for them.

9) That said, you may not end up wanting removal. If it happened at just the right time, suddenly President Mike Pence is in decent position for 2020. As opposed to Trump, whose 2020 numbers are catastrophically bad for him right now. Which one would you rather face?

10) But removal is a conversation for far down the road. The House impeachment hearings could last six months or more (yes, things move they slowly by rule, even after the “impeachment magic wand” is waved). That’s before getting to a long Senate impeachment trial.

11) Point being, if you’ve been under the impression that the GOP Congress would protect Trump no matter what, Amash just proved that it’s fiction. GOPers will each do what they think is best for them. That’s what conservatives do. Duh.

12) In any case, just this one House Republican is enough to hand Pelosi the leverage of being able to sell her impeachment hearings as bipartisan. Trump/GOP can yell whatever they want, but she can shut it down by pointing out that Amash from the GOP went there before she did.

13) In any case, Pelosi won’t magically declare impeachment on Monday because of Amash. If she wants impeachment to have a positive outcome, it’s still not yet time for her to use that word. That’s a fact, even if you don’t want it to be true.

14) Next move for House Democrats will be what it was always going to be: have Mueller and McGahn testify, which will further boost pro-impeachment poll numbers. And win the court battles for Trump’s financial records, which are probably a smoking gun.

15) If you want to help, let go of the nonsense idea that Pelosi should declare impeachment immediately. It’s too soon. It would end in failure. It would be idiotic of her. She would be handing Trump a 2020 victory that he’s already basically lost.

16) There are a number of resistance pundits who know all of the above but are calling for Pelosi’s head, either because they’re dishonestly trying to capitalize on your frustrations, or they’ve lost their minds. Either way, these people are not your allies. Not right now anyway.

17) Trump is in the weakest and most vulnerable position he’s been in since taking office, by far. He’s losing on every front, and he knows it, and he’s acting out. The only thing he still has going for him is that so many in the Resistance tepidly think he’s “winning.”

18) Imagine having four aces and still concluding that your opponent has a better hand, even though he keeps accidentally revealing that it’s a pair of twos, simply because he posts cocky tweets about what a great hand he has. That’s how you turn a running hand into a loss.

19) Right now the biggest liability to the Resistance is the Resistance itself. Con artist pundits and politically clueless frustrated people trying to take down Pelosi while she’s kicking Trump’s ass. Trump nearly finished, yet his detractors start cowering to him. Knock it off.

20) A savvy House Republican just bet all his chips on Trump going down, because he can see Trump is completely screwed. Yet large chunks of the Resistance are shitting themselves and screaming about how Trump is somehow winning. It’s total insanity. Stop hurting us like that.

21) “House Democrats aren’t doing anything” is a false statement.

“Impeachment won’t happen” is an idiotic statement.

If you’re that far gone, stop trying to enforce your toxic pessimism on others. Shut the hell up and go clear your head until you’re ready to be here again.

22) We’re all frustrated. It’s been a long and costly war. But lately we see reminder after reminder after reminder that we’re winning and Trump is fucked. If none of that is sinking in for you, something has gone wrong in your head. Please take care of yourselves.