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In Harry Stebbings' podcast Gurley talks about the role of luck in career outcomes. On the same day in the early 1990s an investor friend named Michael Larson introduced me to Gurley and Mauboussin and encouraged me to focus my curiosity on the work of Benoit Mandelbrot. Luck!
Gurley perfectly describes what happened from 1987 to the end of the Internet and telecom bubbles. Risk assumed was ratcheted up slowly like a frog in a proverbial pot of hot water over a period of years. But when risk aversion unpredictability appeared, it was shockingly sudden!
If you lived though the bubbles and believe you can time when risk avoidance appears you weren't paying attention. Stock market timers have in many cases been predicting the cycle would change for years (the tweets are still there to see). They'll be right someday once in a row.
