Profile picture
Bluegrass Capital
@BluegrassCap
, 8 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
"Complexity Investing" whitepaper: a focus on "companies that are adaptable, long-term focused, innovative, possess long-duration growth, and maximize non-zero-sum outcomes" ht @iamschoeb

static1.squarespace.com/static/5ca38f3…
"returns in complex systems are distributed in a fashion much closer to power laws than normal," and occur via "punctuated equilibrium"
"Complex systems embrace volatility. Through this lens, volatility is not risk, in fact lack of volatility would imply higher risk."
Resilience + optionality = outperformance
The balanced framework management teams need to employ to create value today
"decentralization distributes mistakes while centralization focuses them"
"a few more years of flat growth rate yields a nonlinear absolute return"
"Structural barriers to entry and traditional 'moats' are largely an anachronism - a legacy of a world where information did not freely flow."

*shots fired*
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Bluegrass Capital
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @BluegrassCap see all

Profile picture
Bluegrass Capital
@BluegrassCap
Druckenmiller: "I think we're in one of the biggest productivity inflection booms since the late 1800s. I am very confident that it is not being measured in real GDP."
Uses example of pictures being taken and saved and shown for free on our phones vs paying to have pictures developed 10 years ago.

Recent tech advances are not only not captured in GDP, they are SUBTRACTING from reported GDP by replacing something that used to add to GDP.
"Im glad you mentioned the Encyclopedia Britannica... because you used to have to pay for it, and that added to GDP. The encyclopedia in your pocket, on your phone, is free now."
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Bluegrass Capital
@BluegrassCap
The state of outdoor advertising via OUT: its booming. Digital brand builders like Booking, GrubHub, Netflix, Spotify etc all increasingly spending on billboards / transit media. Would not be surprised to see someone pull a reverse Ted Turner, which NFLX already has in LA market.
"In the U.S., the top 200 [national] advertisers only spend 2% of their [advertising] dollars out-of-home and that compares to a world average of near 7%."
The impact to the west coast outdoor advertising market from NFLX's acquisition
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Bluegrass Capital
@BluegrassCap
US food order / delivery market share trends by company, population & type of competitive market
Some "takeaways" from this data set:
UberEats=perceived primary concern for GRUB, but its entry had very little impact to GRUB's market share in key Takeout markets; Uber rolled out Eats in Chicago & NYC in Apr '15 & most other cities listed starting Jan '16; '18 vs '17 data here shows only 5% share erosion for GRUB
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
CapGains
@iamschoeb
1/25 Fantastic insights below from @bradsling of NZS Cap re: investing in innovative bizes & non-zero-sum outcomes. Tagging some who may appreciate alongside their many followers: @BluegrassCap @MinionCapital @BrentBeshore @LibertyRPF @verdadcap @bgurley nzscapital.com/about
2/25 "When we try to squeeze power laws into normal bell curves, we expose ourselves to overly narrow predictions."

"One common sense approach to valuation is simply asking, “How many predictions and what kind of predictions is the valuation forcing us to make?”
3/25 "The distribution of customer revenue for a company generally follows a power law, and the long tail of small customers frequently can be cultivated into very large customers. Focusing on disruptive innovation for this group of customers creates future Resilient revenues."
Read 25 tweets
Profile picture
Erik Torenberg
@eriktorenberg
0/ Here's my high level reading/summary of @robertwrighter's book, Nonzero.

Fascinating & wide-ranging book. Get the book here: amazon.com/Nonzero-Logic-…
1/Today civilization is more “civilized”—in the everyday, nontechnical sense of the word—than ancient civilizations.

We have less violence than ever before.

Why? Writing & money; Information systems & markets.

Or, more precisely, underpinning this: The rise of non-zero-sumness
2/ What’s non-zero-sumness (NZS)?

The evolution of culture toward deeper and vaster social complexity--an increasing intertwining of our fates.

In other words, the growing extent to which we become interdependent.
Read 30 tweets
Profile picture
Joe Bradford
@joewbradford
Thread on gambling and related topics
Known as Maysir, Qimār, Muqāmara, and other terms.
I'll be tweeting this stuff out for the next few days as I review the topic. This tweet will be pinned to my profile, so you can easily follow along. Let's go!
Shariah seeks to maximize benefit and minimize harm, and therefore has forbidden some things to diminish or prevent harm. This applies to five key areas: Faith, Wealth, Life, Mental Health, & Family.
Detriments to wealth that are forbidden apply to both earnings and spending. These prohibitions extend beyond material sanction and are intended to shape both faith and emotion
Read 56 tweets
Profile picture
Paras Chopra
@paraschopra
1/ Here are my notes from @robertwrighter's book - Nonzero: the logic of human destiny. I enjoyed the book very much.

The basic premise of the book is that history has a direction which favors co-operation and non-zero sum games, and that causes an increase in complexity.
2/ Starting from the first replicating molecule which co-operated with an outer layer to form first proto-cell, evolutionary and cultural history is full of examples where two entities come together to survive and progress a lot more than they would have done individually.
3/ This co-operative entity fares much better than two individual entities because of specialization. If two entities are in the same boat - that they win together or lose together - then trust is implicit.
Read 23 tweets
Profile picture
Arnav Bansal
@itsarnavb
Inspired by @z3nblack's megathread on @EricRWeinstein, I'm making one about a talk delivered by @BretWeinstein called 'The Fourth Frontier'
In the talk 'The Fourth Frontier', @BretWeinstein provides an explanation for political chaos unlike any that I've seen. He grounds it in evolutionary biology, and the results are somewhat terrifying.
I've attempted to combine the central theme of 'The Fourth Frontier' with other content I've found on @BretWeinstein's YouTube channel . Here it goes.
Read 69 tweets
Profile picture
Chef Nobody
@i_amm_nobody
1/ A few months ago I tweeted a quote from Jordan Peterson that I felt summed up the politcal-economic tradeoff quite nicely: "Innovation is paid for with inequality."
2/ Now, I have come to believe that this tradeoff is mistaken. The mistake's origin, I believe, lies in conflating economic equality and economic mobility, or at least in thinking that these are positively correlated, when in fact the opposite holds more truth.
3/ These two passages from @nntaleb, the first from Skin in the Game and the second from The Black Swan turned my worldview on this topic upside down.
Read 15 tweets

Trending hashtags

#investing #mutualfunds #AvenirPro #hypercube #WhitePaper #structure #brexit #nonenfait #Trader #German #USD #Apple #lending #BRK #stupidity #tariffs #CSSS19 #Spain #space #ETFs #ecological #nonlinear #GoodAdvice #GBP #HuaweiBan
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!