Thread by @BluegrassCap

US food order / delivery market share trends by company, population & type of competitive market

Some "takeaways" from this data set:

UberEats=perceived primary concern for GRUB, but its entry had very little impact to GRUB's market share in key Takeout markets; Uber rolled out Eats in Chicago & NYC in Apr '15 & most other cities listed starting Jan '16; '18 vs '17 data here shows only 5% share erosion for GRUB

so while headline data shows GRUB has lost half of its market share in the prior 2 years, its actually retained 74% of share in its primary markets (by population) while losing share in suburban markets which are more dependent on integrated delivery for adoption

the more impt takeaway is that the rollout of DoorDash's subscription product in summer 2018 was more hurtful to GRUB market share than UberEats, AND that this new revenue model has essentially stopped incremental share gains for UberEats as well

Post rollout of DashPass

Takeout markets: DoorDash 10% share gain; taking share from GRUB, but not that much

Delivery markets: DoorDash 23% share gain; taking share from Uber, & seems material

Hybrid markets: DoorDash 20% share gain, taking share from everybody

Note Postmates & Caviar have +/-20% market share in 2-3 cities each, but think trends above representative of market as whole

And while market share is evolving quickly, the overall market is growing rapidly & the primary competitor remains the telephone + general adoption

I *think* data says GRUB has moat in key takeout markets in the US, & think moat can be strengthened by rolling out a competing monthly subscription model to existing customers, copying DoorDash's innovation. Consumers have already proven adoption via DashPass.

Where am I wrong?

GRUB ceo comment re copying what works