Thread by @yinkanubi

A few weeks ago, we started a series on the unemployment data tagged #UnemploymentTimeBomb. We tried to define the “problem” by explaining that given our young population size we have a “flow” that will keep adding to the unemployment numbers.

https://twitter.com/yinkanubi/status/1136583238372212736?s=20

For instance, we analysed that Nigeria added 5.4m people to the working population in 2018 and to catch up, Nigeria will need to create at least 450,000 jobs every month. We considered the options available to all (State and Federal Govt) in managing this #UnemploymentTimeBomb

We said for instance that direct govt jobs will not work, but rather a combination of private sector led job creation + enabling environments for biz to thrive. We also matched data of unemployed people to crime rates in States to see if there is a pattern. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

While we couldn’t find one, we however noted that the increasing number of people “doing nothing” poses a bigger problem for the future. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

In this series, we'll be looking at 10 States with the highest unemployment rate and match them to other indices like debt stock and revenue. At the end, we'll recommend a way for States to analyse their unemployment data & measure their performance. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

Rivers State tops the list of States with d highest unemployment at 1.7m followed by AK with 1.4m. The SS accounts for the highest number in the top 10 followed by the NW. In all, Southern States accounted for more unemployment numbers than Northern States. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

Again in terms of rate, the SS States accounts for the highest averaging at 34% with the highest at 37.72% from AK while Rivers comes next with 36.38%. What this shows is that the SS states are the biggest contributors to the unemployment numbers in Nigeria. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

The picture becomes more compelling when we match the unemployment data to the revenue data. These 10 States make up 48% of total revenue collectible for States and interestingly, they also accounted for 48% of total unemployment rate in terms of numbers. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

In terms of unemployment rate, the top 10 accounted for 31.9% of revenue while also accounting for 27.33% of debt stock. When you put it all together, what it shows is that higher revenue doesn’t necessarily translate to higher employment. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

Of the top 10 revenue earners that accounted for 55% of all revenues, only Lagos and Ogun had unemployment rates lower than 20% (14.6% and 16.4% respectively). The others had rates averaging at 30%. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

In fact, the states that did best in terms of unemployment rate, Osun, Oyo and Ondo (10.1%, 10.3% and 14.2% respectively), have the lowest revenue in the SW compared to Lagos and Ogun. We cannot rule out completely the impact of migration on this data. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

Notwithstanding, what we can see is that while the SW shows that States with high debt figures like Lagos, Ogun and Osun have lower unemployment rate, the SS shows the opposite that higher debt figures does not necessarily impact unemployment. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

Last year while consulting with a mentor, he introduced me to a concept of analyzing economic data by Square km. The idea is simple. The primary function of each state governor is to manage every square km in his state and extract the higher value from it. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

It occurred to me that the same principle can be applied to employment. Simply put, if the number of employed and unemployed can be broken down by sq km, then it'll be easier to analyze the current state of play in each state, determine what needs to be done & measure performance

To this end, we will break down the unemployment figures per sq km for selected states. We will start the analysis by looking at the key figures per Geo Political Zone for 2018, then we will analyse the unemployment data by sq km. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

NC

The NC averaged a Debt to Revenue of about 150% with Plateau State accounting for the highest at 193%. followed by Nasarawa State. Plateau also accounts for the highest in the zone in the number of unemployed persons at 620,815. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

When broken down by Sq. km, we can see the number of employed vs the number of new jobs that needs to be created. Plateau for instance added 128,000 to the Labour population in 2018 and would need to create 10,666 jobs per month or 4/km2 to bridge the gap. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

NE

In the NE, Adamawa & Bauchi top the list in terms of debt to revenue at 214% & 209% respectively. Only Yobe State has a debt to revenue lower than 100%. Not surprisingly, Borno accounts for the highest unemployment figures of 775,063 and rate of 31.4%. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

Over 818,000 people were added to the Labour Population in the NE with Bauchi recording the highest at 234,147. The picture is clearer when broken down by sq. km. The challenge for each State Governor is how can they create jobs while not losing any. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

NW

Debt to revenue averaged at 107% with Kaduna topping the list at 157%. Kano tops the list in terms of unemployed at 1,257,130 & 31.3%. Katsina has the lowest unemployment rate at 14%. Jigawa, Katsina & Sokoto all have debt to rev rates lower than 100%. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

The drawback in terms of unemployment in this zone goes to Kano and Kaduna whose numbers in terms of new persons added to the Labour population and also unemployed make up almost 57% of the entire zone. The challenge to the Governors is simple. Create at least 60 jobs/km2.

SE

Debt to revenue in the SE averaged 134% with Imo as the highest. Imo also accounts for the highest number of unemployed at 880,351 followed by Abia at 639,714. Only Anambra has a debt to revenue ratio lower than 100% meaning it has more revenue than debt #UnemploymentTimeBomb

The SE added over 588,000 people to the Labour population (the highest coming from Imo). Anambra accounts for the highest job numbers in the Zone with the biggest gap between Employed and unemployed. To reduce unemployment, create these jobs/km. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

SS

The SS averaged 160% debt to revenue mainly because of Cross Rivers which stands at 414% above the DMO threshold of max 350%. Remove C/Rivers and the debt to revenue will be 107%. Both Rivers and AK account for 56% of unemployed in the Zone at 36.38% & 37.7% respectively.

The SS added a total of 1.2m to the Labour market with the highest coming from AK and Rivers. Both States also represent a significant portion of the unemployed. To bring down these numbers AK and Rivers have to create at least 42 and 27 new jobs and 192 and 151 total jobs/km.

SW

Debt to revenue in the SW averaged 232% with the highest from Osun at over 500% (higher than the DMO threshold of 350%). Ekiti comes next with 328% just barely missing the 350% mark. Lagos and Ogun make up over 53% of the unemployment. #UnemploymentTimeBomb

The zone added over 838,000 new workers into the Labour market and it also accounted for the lowest in terms of unemployment rate with 5 states, Osun (10.1%), Oyo (10.3%), Ondo (14.2%), Lagos (14.6%), Ogun (16.4%) all recording rates lower than the national average.

Lagos also accounted for the highest gap between people employed and those unemployed. Whatever these States are doing right, needs to be emulated by States in other regions.

#UnemploymentTimeBomb

In concluding part 2 of this series, it is important to note that the ability to scale down the size of the problem makes for the ability to identify tailor made solutions to solve them. It's my hope that in breaking down these figures, we'll see a pathway. #UnemploymentTimeBomb