Thread by @InsidePeloton96

Missed me? Let's get right back to it. #PreviewTime

Stage 16: Nîmes > Nîmes (177km)

Probably the last chance for the sprinters before we get to Paris. But are they going to get it all their own way? Or can the break spring a surprise...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

PREVIEW THREAD 👇👇

If this stage was anywhere else on the race it would be a guaranteed sprint day.

But it's not.

It comes a day after the final rest day and just before we head to the Alps for the gruelling, grand finale of this year's race.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

A lot of teams have burnt many of their matches, and those teams with the top sprinters (Jumbo, Quickstep) have burnt more than nearly anyone else.

These top sprinting teams now have GC ambitions and a realistic chance of winning this race outright.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Do you really think they're going to put that chance at risk by burning through their resources tomorrow?

#TDF2019🇫🇷

So, with fewer teams to chase the break, could they make it all the way to the finish tomorrow?

It would sure make this dry-looking stage a little spicier, wouldn't it?

Anyways, let's first take a look at the route...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

This out and back route from Nimes has the sprinter's names written all over it (despite what I just said), and with just one catergorised climb on the menu - a piddly Cat 4 - it's the ideal stage for a mass bunch sprint.

But...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

...peer a little deeper and you'll see that it's not quite as straightforward as it seems. This is no flat Giro sprint stage, it actually has a few annoying hills to clamber over.

A very undulating day this far into the race can often throw up some surprises!

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Our first 4km after the neutral zone rise steadily uphill - perfect ground for a break to launch.

It's more of a drag than a climb, but there are ramps of 5% thrown in there.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The roads are very wide here, so it's going to be tough for one of the sprinter's teams to control the break and stop a lot of strong rouleurs from flooding it.

Perhaps the best form of defense is attack? Just something they might want to bear in mind 😉.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

After this hill we then descend for around 5km and get spat out onto this wide, straight A-road.

It's straight for almost 10km, heading NE towards Remoulins. It's exposed as well, and we do have some wind tomorrow - coming from the south.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

If the break hasn't formed yet, this could be a nervous section for a lot of riders - there is a small risk of cross tailwinds, in other words, ECHELON DANGER! 🚨

If riders are still pushing on the front to get in the break, they could inadvertently split the group.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Obviously these splits would soon come back together - no one is going to push it hard on this stage for the next 160km.

But as a result of these winds we could end up with a group of rouleurs up the road, perhaps about a dozen strong, forming the break of the day.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Anyway, after this windy section, we've then got around 70km of undulating roads that take us to the foot of the first and only categorised climb of the day.

The Cote de Saint-Jean-du-Pin.

Do you really want me to bore you with the profile? Go on then...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

It's an easy climb, probably not even worth of a categorisation!

1.9km at 3.8%, with the 'steepest' ramps coming around 100m from the top.

Easy peasy - the peloton will fly over this one.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The climb is very wide, hella smooth and the gradients are very consistent.

Man, I think even I could keep up over this one! Who's with me?

#TDF2019🇫🇷

From the summit of this climb it's then a 63km dash to the outskirts of Nimes and the real 'business end' of the stage...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

At around 17km to go we hit an uncatergorised climb called the Cote de Saint-Nicolas.

No, we haven't taken a detour to Liege. And no, it's nowhere near as difficult as the real deal.

It is tougher than the earlier Cat 4 however and could, therefore, have an impact.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

It's rather strange to see that it hasn't been given a category. I can only imagine the organisers have done that in an attempt to keep it 'hidden' from a lot of riders and cause a few surprises at the end

It's 4.3km-long at 3.3% and the hardest ramps are at the foot

#TDF2019🇫🇷

It's not tough by any means, but coming this late into the day some teams may just want to hit it at pace to try and soften a few of the other sprinter's legs.

And remember, any climb is difficult if it's ridden hard! Apart from that Cat 4, that's piss easy.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

We fly into the bottom of this climb from a narrow bridge - swinging tight left onto the lower slopes.

Positioning will be important here. If you get caught napping at the back and a team pushes it at the front, you could get caught in a small split.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

It also pays to be at the front because even if you start to slip down the bunch, at least you're still in there and don't have to make the frantic effort to bridge across no-mans land.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Every hill must eventually head downhill, and this one does - taking us straight down into Nimes along a very fast, very wide, and very straight 5km-long downhill A-road.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

It's worth noting that during this descent to Nimes we're forecasted a pretty sizeable headwind - around 11-13mph. This is going to discourage any late attacks from the peloton, AND slow any breakaway that may still be out ahead.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The final 4km of this stage are incredibly simple - ideal for a bunch sprint. The roads are straight, wide and pan flat.

Yes, there is a corner to take at 3.5km to go, but it's a sweeping right hander from a roundabout - easy to carry speed through.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

After this turn it's then just one long line to the finish. Simples.

Here's a view at around 100m from the line. Glorious!

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Oh, and don't forget about the wind here! With the direction at the finish it'll now be hitting cross head.

It should be largely blocked by those buildings to the left, but we could still get a few gusts. With that in mind, it'd be best to launch...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

...on the right hand side and close to the barriers, forcing the other sprinters to come round on your left and eat the wind.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

So, before we get into how the stage is going to play out, let's have a quick #WeatherWatch!

The mercury is rising tomorrow, to a face-melting 38 degrees 🔥🔥🔥

#TDF2019🇫🇷

This kind of temperature is going to have a massive effect on the race. Teams aren't going to want to 'burn' through their resources committing to a half-arsed chase.

Unless they're 100% committed to bringing the stage back for a sprint...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

...then they're just going to leave it down to someone else to do the work.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

So, tactics.

Tomorrow is going to be yet another rest day for most riders, especially the GC men and their domestiques who will be wanting to regather as much strength as they can before we head to the Alps.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

For other riders however, tomorrow (and potentiall stage 17) is their last chance to realistically win a stage. That goes for both sprinters and opportunistic breakaway riders.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

With many of the sprinters teams now juggling big GC duties (Quickstep, Jumbo, Bora) the owness falls to teams like Sunweb and Lotto to do the chasing.

But - and this is the most vital question of the day - is it really worth comitting your whole team...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

...to the chase, during a heatwave no less, to then be mugged by Viviani, Groenewegen or Sagan in the sprint finish, after their teams have done no work all day?

Probably not.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

Lotto Soudal have a chances with Caleb, and he's the only sprinter in a none GC-focussed team that could possibly beat Viviani and Groenewegen tomorrow.

So, if we're going to get a sprint, it's up to Lotto to control the day and set it all up for Caleb in Nimes.

#TDF2019🇫🇷

BUT!

I don't think that's going to happen. I'm going to put my neck out here and say a breakaway takes it tomorrow.

As many of you may remember, we had a similar stage into Nimes five years ago, in 2014. Kristoff won, but it was Jack Bauer that stole the day...

#TDF2019🇫🇷

..after cruelly being caught just 75m from the finish line. The lad has spent 220km in a breakaway! One of the biggest upsets I've ever seen on on Le Tour.

Time for the breakaway to avenge Jack tomorrow and take the stage. But who am I picking for tomorrow's break?

#TDF2019🇫🇷

This stage has 'strong rouleur' and 'whopping engine' written all over, so with that in mind these are my guys for tomorrow...

Politt 🇩🇪
Naesen 🇧🇪
Garcia Cortina 🇪🇸
Wisniowski 🇵🇱
Durbridge 🇦🇺
Backaert 🇧🇪
Stuyven 🇧🇪
Arndt 🇩🇪
Kragh Andersen 🇩🇰
Boasson Hagen 🇳🇴

#TDF2019🇫🇷

And from that long list, I'm going to go for...

Nils Politt.

He's been having a fantastic year, but he's yet to take a win. Tomorrow he'll do just that on the biggest race of them all.

#AllezNils! #TDF2019🇫🇷

And that's me done! Who'd have thought I could write so much about a 'boring' transition stage!

If you enjoyed tonight's #PreviewTime, please go and drop a RT on the first tweet in the thread, it helps me out massively!

As ever, shoot your questions my way.

À demain 👋

Just adding a small addition to last nights #PreviewTime!

As a lot of you have pointed out, around 30km to go we have a very long, exposed section of road that looks ideal for some crosswind action.

Here it is 👇👇👇

#TDF2019🇫🇷

The wind is hitting from the south and will hit the riders as a direct crosswind.

If a team want to push it on here, they could break the race into echelons. With Pinot climbing so well, INEOS, Jumbo and Quickstep might be minded to do the work.

#TDF2019🇫🇷