Thread by @InsidePeloton96

THIS. IS. IT. The moment we've all been waiting for #PreviewTime

Stage 18: Embrun > Valloire (208km)

We've finally made it to the Alps and beginning of the end of this year's epic race. Time to don the oxygen masks, tomorrow we're heading above the clouds!

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THREAD👇

We're now at the business end of this year's race and within the mountains we've all been waiting for since the moment the route was first announced!

The GC is tighter than ever, 2:14 separating the first 6 on GC, and just 36 seconds between 2nd to 6th! Mental 😱

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With the gaps so tight and the mountains we've got to come over the next three days, I'd bet my house (conveniently my parent's house😉) on the GC royally exploding - the final results looking vastly different to how they do now.

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But who's going to emerge from this trio of Alpine stages wearing yellow? And who's going to be left by the roadside with a pile of broken dreams wondering where the hell did it all go wrong?

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Before I dive head first into tomorrow's route, I've already noticed that this thread has skyrocketed with Twitter engagements!

To all of you reading these tweets live as I post them, grab hold of your handlebars right now - because we're in for one bumpy ride!

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Tomorrow we've got a LONG day of climbing, a whole 208km! Forget those short, snappy 130km stages, this is the Tour going back to its roots and I, for one, am so grateful.

In total there's 5,406m of climbing to conquer tomorrow.

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If that's just made you shiver, then just imagine what the riders are going to be feeling tomorrow morning!?

I feel sorry for any of those who choose to role out of Embrun in white shorts, could get a little messy... 💩

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So, we start in the beautiful little town of Embrun tomorrow with a twisty neutral zone that soon spits us out onto a nice, wide and straight highway.

Awesome start, now when do the mountains come?

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Well, not straight away.

We've got around 6km on this highway before we start climbing. The first uphill parts tomorrow are nothing tough, just a few false flats mixed in with some steeper sections for around 10km.

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The first catergorised climb of tomorrow's stage - the Cat 3 Cote des Demoiselles Coiffees (wow that was a mouthful) - falls in the first half of this lumpy section.

Tis a nice climb, just 3.9km at 5.2% - a mere molehill compared to what's to come.

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The steepest ramps come near the base, which will no doubt be hit hard by those riders trying to form the breakaway of the day.

In fact, this is the perfect place for that breakaway to launch. The roads are wide and attacks can fly all over - no roadblock just yet!

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After this lumpy opening 40km, it's then onto a flat(ish) road that takes us towards the first significant climb of the day - the Col de Vars.

This valley road is stunning, but there will be no time to stop and smell the flowers tomorrow, it'll be action stations...

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...as the peloton get increasingly more nervous as we approach the terrifying Col de Vars.

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The Col de Vars 'officially' begins from the village of Saint-Paul-Sur-Ubaye at around 74km into the stage (134km from the finish - quick maffs 🤓).

But from the above profiles you can see that we start to gradually climb way before that point.

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In reality the Col de Vars is around 21.8km at 3.9%. But, to keep consistency, we'll focus on that final, and most crucial 9.3km - the ones that ASO have catergorised.

So, the Vars. It's one of the most famous climbs in the Alps, but almost always plays...

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...second fiddle to the nearby Iozard and Galibier - just as it will again tomorrow.

Tomorrow is the 34th time it will have been used on the Tour. Imagine climbing that beast 34 times? No thanks.

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It's a climb that can be split into two halves.

A 'manageable' first half, and then a gruesome second half.

This second half begins around 4.7km from the top and instantly slaps riders with steep ramps of 12%.

It doesn't relent either and stays around 10%...

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...for the rest of the way up!

Here are those steep ramps👇

They come just after a blind bend from a slightly easier gradient, a perfect launchpad for an attack! Well, if we were within sniping distance of the finish that is. And, unfortunately, we're not.

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Due to where it falls on tomorrow's stage, I can't see this climb animating much action. Instead it's going to be ridden quite defensively with the majority of the GC big boys using it to eye up their rivals and assess their post-Pyrenees climbing form.

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It's worth also noting the elevation on the Col de Vars. It might be the lowest of the three major climbs tomorrow, but 2,109m is still pretty damn high - almost the same as the Tourmalet!

This is going to have an effect on some riders. If you spy anyone...

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...seemingly suffering from the altitude here, the chances are they're going to be in pieces and well over an hour down by the time we reach the finish in Valloire.

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Now, onto the descent!

It's actually quite nice this one, long and straight in the first half before a short section of flat and then another, steeper, faster section of downhill.

This second, steeper half is a lot more twisty, with several hairpins to negotiate.

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Thankfully, however, they're nice hairpins. Wide and sweeping. They shouldn't cause much trouble for the riders tomorrow.

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After the descent we then join yet another valley road and follow it for 15km, right to the base of the next climb of the day - the Col d'Iozard.

This is a relatively short section and doesn't offer much time for domestiques distanced on the previous climb...

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...to catch up, which could prove detrimental for some big GC names - looking at you Jalaphilippe 👀.

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After this 15km section the Col d'Iozard then arrives.

This is a beast of a climb. 14.2km long at an average gradient of 7%. This is a proper 'chewing your handlebar tape' kind of climb.

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That 7% average gradient is hella deceptive. This climb is actually littered with countless double digit ramps - the steepest climbing up to a leg-breaking 13.5% gradient.

This constant change in gradient is sure to cause carnage in the group. If one team doesn't...

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...attempt to keep a lid on things and manage the pace at the front, all hell could break loose.

Fun for us, not so much for the riders in the race.

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The first half of the climb is relatively straightforward as we head through the several villages that line this Alpine valley

This is the place where the GC teams will want to demand some control and set a strong but manageable tempo - theres still a long way to go!

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Once we pass the village of Brunissard, that crudely marks the climb's halfway point, we start the gruelling hairpin section.

This is the ideal place for a long ranged attack, expect the mountain goats to come to the fore and tease us on these ramps!

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Aside from an impromptu downhill section near the top of the climb, the gradients rarely dip below 10% for the final 7km of the climb.

This will be music to the ears of the mountain goats tomorrow.

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I've marked the final kilometre of this climb as tomorrow's 'Goldilock's Kilometre'.

It's a gruelling final 1000m that will feel like an absolute eternity fo the riders. Attack here and drive the knife into those GC guys behind! This is where a few may crack.

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This is a horrible place to crack and despite it being only 1km to the top, you can lose a load of time, especially since the gradients are so damn steep - around 10-12%.

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Again, altitude is going to be a massive factor. The Iozard tops out at 2,360m and is really going to cripple those riders who haven't been putting in the hard miles at altitude training camps.

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The descent from the Iozard is very spicy right from the start - which gives riders even more incentive to attack in this final kilometre and carry a gap into it.

It's twisty from the off, and remains so for the first 5km of the 18km-long descent.

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The hairpins aren't too tight, but they're not as wide and forgiving as those ones we saw on the Vars.

Due to this descents positioning on the race as well some riders may just want to take a few more risks and push the pace. Which makes it all that more difficult.

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This is a descent where the specialists could really gain some time - as long as they're willing to take those race-winning risks!

After the technical first 5km, we've then got 13km of long straight downhill intersperesed with smaller sections of flat.

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It finally brings us out into Briancon, which has hosted numerous stage finishes in the past.

Sadly, we're not finishing here tomorrow, no matter how much the riders beg!

It's onwards to the Galibier from here - just 10km before we hit the foot of the beast.

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The colossal Col du Galibier is the hardest, highest and most harrowing climb on tomorrow's route.

A real demon.

It's 24km-long and climbs at an average gradient of 5%, gaining 1,200m of altitude from top to bottom!

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Time to deploy the oxygen masks guys, we climb to 2642m here!

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The riders will be thankful that we have a long and gradual introduction to this climb.

For the first 10km it slowly ramps up from around 4% to 6%. If the GC riders have any domestiques left, this is the best place to put them to work.

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After the first 10km, the gradients ramp up to around 7.5% and remain at that gradient until the final kilometre.

There are no double digit ramps for the pure climbers to dance away on, this climb is more a test of survival, then a test of climbing talent.

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The strongest climbers will obviously excel here, but they don't necessarily need to attack. Just slowly ramp up the pace at the front and wave goodbye to all the GC guys that crack behind you.

It's like torture, long and slow. Who'll be the torturer tomorrow?

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Like I did on the Iozard, I've earmarked the final kilometre of the Galibier as the perfect launchpad for a last ditch attack.

This is where the steepest gradients can be found and it's just far enough from the summit to create a small gap going into the descent.

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The gradients ramp up to around 16% here, just past the entrance to the Galibier tunnel.

Lungs are going to be at breaking point here, not only from the steep gradients, but from the altitude too.

This is it. The final chance to attack and gain...

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...some significant time.

If you haven't attacked by this point, there's very little chance you're going to make any time on your rivals by the finish.

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Oh, and there's bonus seconds at the top of this climb! No doubt put there to coax out the big GC players, which I think it definitely will!

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So, onto the final descent!

This is the perfect descent to cause some real carnage on - just look how twisty it is for the first 8km!

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These corners are quite technical to negotiate at the best of times, but combined with the cold temperatures and the fact that the riders are going to be delirious from the effort they've expended on the Galibier, they're going to be extra difficult!

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A twisty, fast descent and a loss of rider concentration are a recipe for one thing - disaster!

Fingers crossed that everyone stays on their bikes tomorrow. And someone please warn Steven of these snow banks!

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After this technical 8km section of the descent, we then enter a much easier 10km section that takes us right towards the finish in Valloire.

It's essentially arrow straight, very simple and shouldn't cause any trouble - hopefully...

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The roads are still quite fast however, and if a rider or group is charging ahead up front with a gap, it's going to be incredibly tough to catch them.

The final 900m into Valloire head steadily uphill, around 4%, before a flat 100m long finishing straight.

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And that, my dear friends, is tomorrow's route.

A real belter, right?

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Now, before we discuss how tomorrow's stage might pan out, let's have a quick #WeatherWatch!

It starts off quite warm tomorrow and stays so for most of the day - around 28 degrees.

But it's not heat that the riders will fear tomorrow, it's the rain!

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We're forecasted quite a lot, but not until around 14:00 CET. This means it'll hit the riders as they're climbing the Col d'Iozard and just getting onto the descent - very bad news.

Riders will need to prepare for this long before hand! Rain capes on lads.

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The rain is going to persist throughout the rest of the day - even more bad news, especially for those not so comfortable descending massive mountain passes.

To put a slight positive spin on things, it's going to make for a phenomenal watch on TV, a real grisly epic!

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Wind? I hear you all whisper...

Not much really, but there is a nice 4mph tailwind for the riders as they climb the Galibier.

Not that they'll feel much benefit from it, they're legs are going to feel like lead at this point!

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So, how is tomorrow's stage going to pan out?

It's a long one (208km) and the first of the three big mountain stages, so there's a chance it could be ridden quite defensively. The riders are going to nervous and cagey, but some will want to wait for others to...

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...launch the first move. Which could amount to one big game of cat and mouse before we get to the final climb.

But, with the gaps so tight in GC and no dominant team in sight, I think we're going to see something completely different tomorrow.

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Pinot is without a doubt the strongest climber in this race. He'll be the guy most looking forward to the next three stages. But he still needs to pull back 1:50 on Alaphilippe, and 1:35 on Thomas - which are quite sizeable gaps.

So, with that in mind, I think...

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...we'll see FDJ ride a very aggressive race tomorrow, potentially. even teeing Pinot up for an attack on the Izoard and if not there, halfway up the Galibier.

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Jumbo are also going to ride aggressively again to try and push Kruijswijk even further up the GC. Steven has the luxury of two super domestiques in De Plus and Bennett who should both survive with him to the bottom of the Galibier.

Having two domestiques here...

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...puts you in a fantastic position and hands you control of the race, essentially.

I also think we'll see Movistar try their usual, aggressive antics tomorrow. Mobbing the break before sending Landa out on a long range solo mission on the Izoard.

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Quickstep and INEOS are going to be the two teams riding quite defensively, I think.

Quickstep can't really do anything else but that, tomorrow is all about trying to survive for as long as possible. Unfortunately I can't see any of their guys getting over the...

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...Izoard with the front group and it's probably here where Alaphilippe will be isolated.

This is bad. Very bad. Any mechanicals or crashes on the descent, even going back to get a bottle on the flat, could result in disaster for him.

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INEOS know this, and I think that's why they'll just sit and lie in wait tomorrow, saving their real strength for the last two stages.

They know Jumbo and FDJ are eager to attack this one, so best leave them to it - let them be the ones to crack Alaphilippe.

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They can then swoop in on stage 19 and stage 20 to steal all the spoils!

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So, that's the main aim of the day for most teams - push Quickstep to breaking point, isolate Alaphilippe on the Izoard and then well and truly break him on the Galibier.

That's how I see it going down tomorrow.

Sorry Ala, it's been a good run lad. 👍

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Breakaway chances tomorrow?

They've got a solid chance, but there needs to a BIG group if they're going to make it. The pace at the front of the race is going to be hot all day, you won't survive in a group of less than 10 riders.

The break is going to be jam...

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...packed with super domestiques and pure climbers from those teams who are yet to take anything from this race.

It could also have a few GC outsiders in it that want to crawl their way up towards the top 10 on GC.

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So, with those things in mind, here are some names I'm cashing in for the breakaway lottery tomorrow:

Kreuziger
Mollema
Martin
Molard
Yates bros
Ciccone
Konrad
Soler
Bilbao
Erviti

All strong climbers, some super doms and some stage hunters. Bosh.

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Now, before we wrap this up, let me just fire some big GC predictions at you!

1. Alaphilippe cracks on the Galibier.
2. Pinot goes into yellow after a heroic do-or-die solo attack.
3. Thomas and Kruijswijk survive and hold him within a minute on GC.

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4. Buchmann stealithly rides home with Thomas and Kruijswijk and hold his place in the GC.
5. Bernal cracks working for Thomas.
6. #FreeLanda works, but he attacks too early and gets caught on the Galibier.

Hit me with your predictions!

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This #PreviewTime is getting hella long now and I've still not had my tea! So, let's wrap this baby up.

My stage winner tomorrow?

I'm a romantic, so...

Thibaut Pinot.

He's going to conquer his descending fears and outclass everyone else tomorrow.

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Well bloody done for making it to the end of this thread, it was like a long mountain stage in itself!

As ever, shoot your questions my way, let's keep up the GC discussion in the comments 🤓.

Oh, and RTs are massively appreciated - virtual high-5 from me! 👏

A demain bros.