Thread by @nicholadrummond

Royal Navy ships have never been more capable than they are today. Type 45 Destroyers and Type 23 Frigates are undoubtedly world class. The Type 26 Frigate / Global Combat Ship will raise the bar even higher. The trouble is these ships are approaching £1 billion each.
1/10

The cost of modern warships has reduced the total we can afford. It’s why we only have 19 surface combatants versus the 48 we had in 1989. But, when you look at how much more capable contemporary warships are versus their predecessors, perhaps this justifies having fewer?
2/10

But how low can we go? The realisation that even the best ship cannot be in two places at the same time means that absolute numbers do matter. So what is the minimum quantity of surface combatants needed by the RN to achieve a critical mass across its most important roles?
3/10

Typically, the RN has 1/3rd of the fleet on patrol, 1/3rd preparing for patrol, and 1/3rd in port for refit following a patrol. With a fleet of 19 that means only 6 vessels available at any one time. You can see why people think we 're below an acceptable critical mass.
4/10

If we're playing a numbers game, then there's a strong case for a low-cost warship such as the Type 31. But the question is still what should be the minimum fleet size?
5/10

A total of 36 vessels would ensure that we had 12 ready for deployment at any one time. With 6 destroyers and 8 frigates, we might want 12-18 Type 31s instead of just 5? Given the desire for increased ship numbers, Type 31 unit cost will be vital.
6/10

The original budget was £250 million each, but a more realistic target cost seems to be closer £350 million. Even if it increases by this much, it is still half the price of a Type 26 frigate.
7/10

The key factor driving the Type 31 requirement is the cost of Type 26, or to be specific the cost of Type 26 anti-submarine warfare equipment. it means that Type 31s will be fitted for but not with ASW kit. Given the importance of ASW, maybe this is an oversight?
8/10

Anti-submarine warfare remains a critical RN role. Have we decided that 8 Type 26 frigates is sufficient for our ASW needs because this is what we can afford or because we genuinely think this is enough ships for the task?
9/10

I believe the key to increased RN warship numbers, without sacrificing capability, is to develop less expensive but effective means of detecting submarines. We must invest in drone vessels, advanced sonar equipment, towed arrays and drone helicopter systems.
10/10