Thread by @nicholadrummond

TANK THREAD
I've been away for Easter, so have mostly missed the discussion on MBTs. But, as the person who contributed the analysis of global tank numbers to the Times article, I'd like to make a few points, but will address this topic in more detail over coming weeks.
1/15

The tank is not dead. Nothing else has the brute force needed to tough it out against determined enemies in head-on clashes. Period.
2/15

The best way of defeating a tank is still another tank. As Active Protection Systems reduce the effectiveness of anti-tank guided missiles, we will increasingly rely on the long-rod penetrators of 120 mm guns to defeat the tanks of potential adversaries.
3/15

With 53,000 tanks in service across the globe and with 35,000 of those belonging to Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran and other threats, the bottom line is we still need MBTs. Lots of them.
4/15

That said, weight growth has made MBT deployability an issue. Few bridges in Europe can support a 70-tonne mass. So there is a genuine risk of an MBT force not being able to respond quickly enough to get to where it is needed to influence the outcome of a battle.
5/15

For the above reason, wheeled armoured vehicles have become popular. The 8x8 phenomena has swept through the armies of NATO and potential adversaries. The USA, Russia, China, France, Italy, Poland and Germany have all successfully deployed 8x8 wheeled forces.
6/15

While 8x8 formations excel in rapid response roles, across low-intensity scenarios against non-peer threats, they lack the organic firepower and protection to have resilience against peer enemies in high-intensity conflicts.
7/15

So, what we're seeing across NATO is armies refocussing, rebalancing and restructuring around three unit types:
1. Heavy tracked with MBTs, IFVs & SPGs
2. Medium wheeled with 8x8 Tank Destroyers, ICVs & SPGs
3. Light or air mobile infantry with helicopters and 4x4 jeeps
8/15

The British Army future structure will echo this evolution with 2x Heavy Armoured. Brigades, 2x Medium Strike Brigades and 1x Air Mobile Brigade. In reality, it ought to have 3x AI Brigades, 3x Strike Brigades and 1x Air Mobile Bed, so that we have 2 deployable divisions.
9/15

The reduction of British Army tank numbers has NOTHING to do with a misconception about its futures roles. It has EVERYTHING to do with the Government's reluctance to allocate sufficient resources to rebuild the Army after gutting it in 2010.
10/15

Under current plans, the UK will have just three MBT regiments. Two regular and one reserve. Instead of having 56 tanks, they will only have 44. This means a reduction from 227 to just 148 tanks.
11/15

In order to support our NATO allies, we ought to be able to contribute a full armoured division with three brigades. This would require three regular MBT regiments plus one reserve or the 227 tanks we have today.
12/15

If the UK had two deployable divisions, as was planned in 1998, before Iraq and Afghanistan, at a time when we weren't involved in other conflicts so could objectively decide what we needed, then we'd still have 7 tank regiments or 396 tanks in total. This would be enough.
14/15

We could get by with 148 tanks, if we could successfully fit a 120 mm smoothbore gun to 148 of our planned fleet of Boxer 8x8 vehicles to generate a tank destroyer capability. While this would be highly mobile and potent, it wouldn't be as well protected as a proper MBT.
15/15