Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Prof. of Strategy @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute. Visiting Scholar & Assoc. in Research @Harvard @FairbankCenter. Member @CFR_org. Proud Dad.
Daniel Bilar Profile picture bourbakis Profile picture Katherine K Profile picture 3 added to My Authors
13 Jul
#FullText of Press Statement by @SecPompeo @StateDept, “U.S. Position on #Maritime Claims in the #SouthChinaSea,” 13 July 2020:

bit.ly/SecPompeoSCS

"The United States champions a free & open Indo-Pacific. ..."

andrewerickson.com/2020/07/secret…

(Maps from @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks)
"Today we are strengthening U.S. policy in a vital, contentious part of that region — the #SouthChinaSea. We are making clear: #Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them."
"In the #SouthChinaSea, we seek to preserve peace and stability, uphold #freedom of the #seas in a manner consistent with international #law, maintain the unimpeded flow of #commerce, and oppose any attempt to use coercion or force to settle disputes."

bit.ly/SecPompeoSCS
Read 19 tweets
30 Jun
JUST IN—

“Policy Options to Impose Costs on #Beijing’s Coercive Envelopment of #HongKong: Version 1.0”

bit.ly/HongKONG

#NatSecLaw negates #SAR’s judiciary & freedoms

Our #ChinaSignPost™ 洞察中国 report (#102) offers analysis & recommendations

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…
#HongKong’s long-deteriorating situation has come to a head.

Today, just b/f #July1, Beijing imposed a popularly-opposed #NationalSecurityLaw negating the Special Autonomous Region’s judiciary & freedoms.

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…

Dissidents are vulnerable; everyone is at risk.
#Beijing has abruptly abandoned binding commitments & reassurances, which underwrote #HongKong’s handover from Britain in 1997, & its subsequent special treatment by the United States & other nations.

Now, sadly, Hong Kong’s identity & status lies damaged & altered irrevocably.
Read 11 tweets
16 Jun
"Prelim. reports..indicated..the [#Indian] soldiers had not been shot, but had been killed in a brawl involving rocks & wooden clubs that was similar to fights that broke out last month along the border & seriously injured several soldiers on both sides."

nytimes.com/2020/06/16/wor…
"A senior #Indian #Army officer said that >20 Indian #soldiers had also been #captured & many might still be in #Chinese custody.

nytimes.com/2020/06/16/wor…

India seemed caught off guard by the new burst of violence, which the 2 sides blamed on each other."

#Ladakh
#GalwanValley
"The spark for the recent tensions seemed to have been a road to a remote #AirForce #base that the #Indian #Army is building through mountain passes in the #GalwanValley >14,000 feet above sea level"
nytimes.com/2020/06/16/wor…

#India
#China
#border
#tension
#incident
#clash
#Ladakh
Read 8 tweets
16 Jun
"20 Indian soldiers dead after clash w Chinese troops high in the Himalayas, Indian army says washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…
The conflict is the 1st deadly encounter between Indian & Chinese forces in 45 years & marks a severe escalation in tensions betw/ the 2 nuclear-armed neighbors."
"The deaths occurred in the mountainous region of #Ladakh where #India & #China share a disputed...#border. No Indian soldiers have been killed in clashes on the frontier between the 2 countries since 1975, experts say, & no casualties of this magnitude have occurred since 1967."
"#India at first said that 3 #soldiers had died in a 'violent faceoff' that caused '#casualties on both sides.'

Later Tuesday, the #Indian #Army said in a statement that 17 more Indian #troops who were 'critically injured in the line of duty' had “succumbed to their injuries.'"
Read 9 tweets
26 May
As #Beijing prepares to impose a sweeping #NationalSecurityLaw formally invalidating core #1C2S protections, risks are mounting for #HongKongers & their future.

So I’m standing up a #HongKong #WatchFloor:

bit.ly/HongKongWatch

Stay tuned for updates!

andrewerickson.com/2020/05/the-ho…
The clock is ticking toward an unclear, but clearly worrisome, future for #HongKong.

To shine a spotlight on these critical issues, I’m standing up this virtual #WatchFloor.

I’ll improve & update it to the best of my ability, & welcome suggestions via andrewerickson.com/contact.
As #Beijing prepares to impose a sweeping #NationalSecurityLaw that in effect invalidates core #OneCountryTwoSystems-promised protections, risks are mounting for #HongKongers.

Under assault: some of their most cherished values & freedoms.

andrewerickson.com/2020/05/the-ho…

#1C2S#1C1S
Read 19 tweets
17 Apr
I saw the movie #Apollo13 with #LunarModule Program Director #JoeGavin. Now it’s time to tell the forgotten story—which that film doesn’t show—of how he & his #Grumman #Team helped rescue the astronauts with a #LMLifeboat while the world watched: andrewerickson.com/2020/04/apollo… #Apollo50
Five decades ago, during the aborted #Apollo13 mission of April 1970, #Grumman Aerospace Corporation’s #LunarModule saved 3 astronauts by becoming a lifeboat-tugboat. Throughout the crisis, #LM Program Director #JoeGavin manned his post @NASA’s #MissionControl Center in #Houston.
Gavin led a multi-hundred-person team in Houston & Bethpage, NY to help coordinate assessment & use of the #LM’s capabilities for emergency #LunarLifeboat role.

Gavin, virtually all of his colleagues + contemporaries & #Grumman itself have subsequently departed from the scene.
Read 35 tweets
31 Mar
Big #ONI reveal:

#China ALREADY has its own 355+ ship #navy, & within a decade will exceed that benchmark by 70 #ships!

At the end of 2020 China will have 360 battle force ships vs. @USNavy’s 297—over 60 more!

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

@ConsWahoo @JerryHendrixII @alessionaval
#ONI: In 2025 #China’s #Navy will have 400 ships. In 2030, China’s Navy will have 425 ships.

Even if @USNavy reaches its current goal of 355+ by 2030, China’s Navy could still have 70 more ships.

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

This math is truly unforgiving!

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…
Given @USNavy’s dispersed global responsibilities vs. #China’s concentrated focus on being able to fight/win regional war over a sovereignty dispute, potentially vs. US & 1+ allies/partners, a sufficiently-sized #USNavy is required to preserve American security & vital interests.
Read 4 tweets
29 Mar
Latest CRS Report—“#China #Naval Modernization: Implications for @USNavy Capabilities”—Has PLAN ship #s projections from Office of Naval #Intelligence!
bit.ly/PLAN-2030

Check out Table 2 for RARE info—PRC battle force ship #s for 2020, 2025 & 2030!
andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…
Table 2 tallies total #China #Navy battle force #ships!

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

2020: 360 (vs. @USNavy total of ~297)

2025: 400 (vs. ?)

2030: 425 (vs. ?)

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…

#PLAN has more small ships; #USN has most advanced, big ships. But #s matter & PLAN progressing!
Wow! See rare public *projections by Office of #Naval #Intelligence: #China #Navy Battle Force #Ships, 2020-25-30

bit.ly/PLAN-2030

SSBN: 4↗6↗8
SSN: 7↗10↗13
SSK: 55→55→55
CV, CG, DDG: 43↗55↗65
FFG, DDC: 102↗120↗135

TOTAL: 360↗400↗425

andrewerickson.com/2020/03/new-ed…
Read 27 tweets
16 Mar
Stuck @ home wondering where China & world are headed? Read #TheChinaQuestions—36 @Harvard @FairbankCenter chs. ed. by Profs. @MichaelSzonyi & Rudolf!

Order: amazon.com/gp/product/067…

English: fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/china-question…

中文: bit.ly/FairbankCenter

한국어: bit.ly/ChinaQuestions
See great chapters by Profs. Elizabeth Perry, Joe Fewsmith, Rod MacFarquhar, Mark Elliott, Ya-Wen Lei, Arunabh Ghosh, Yuhua Wang, Arne Westad, Robert Ross, Ian Johnston, Steve Goldstein, Ezra Vogel, Richard Cooper, Dwight Perkins, Meg Rithmire, Mark Wu, Tony Saich, Nara Dillon...
..Michael McElroy, Karen Thornber, Susan Greenhalgh, James Robson, Leonard W. J. van der Kuijp, Bill Alford, Bill Kirby, Michael Puett, Rowan Flad, Peter Bol, Wai-Yee Li, David Der-wei Wang, Jie Li, Stephen Owen & Paul Cohen!

Honored to join them in this @FairbankCenter project!
Read 51 tweets
11 Mar
"UK, France & Germany on same virus trajectory as Italy...@FT data analysis shows that many countries grappling with rising #coronavirus cases are on a similar trajectory—& potentially facing the same challenge—as Italy." ft.com/content/986b53… See the careful work @jburnmurdoch
"In most western countries case #s have been increasing by around 33% a day. This is as true of the UK, France & Germany as it is of #Italy. The latter is simply further down the path. In the city-states of #HongKong & #Singapore the rates of increase appear to have been been..."
"relatively well contained through the quick introduction of strict control measures. #Japan has also reported a flatter case trajectory than western countries, though views differ over whether this is the result of measures such as school closures or simply due to the low #s..."
Read 4 tweets
27 Jan
"It is increasingly clear that much of the blame for the seriousness of the #coronavirus’s spread can be placed on the culture of lying & covering up bred by #China’s deeply flawed & highly corrupted Marxist-Leninist system 'with Chinese characteristics.'"
ucanews.com/news/chinas-wa…
"Yet it’s also worth reflecting on the limited tools that the #Chinese government has to deal with the situation due to its parallel wars on both #religion & #civil society. The two are closely related as across the world the Catholic Church, Protestant denominations, Islam..."
"Buddhism, Hinduism, Judaism & most other organized religions play an outsized role in civil society through religion-backed organizations & charities devoted to humanitarian services. The Catholic Church has traditionally been very active in providing such services..."
Read 13 tweets
26 Jan
"Commenters have especially condemned the perceived absence of the local, provincial &even nat'l authorities in the heart of the outbreak..Xi had made few public remarks about the disease bf Sat, when he called for officials to “stand @ the front line to safeguard social stablty”
"'Where is that person? He is not on the front line,' 1 user wrote on #Weibo, a Twitterlike platform, an apparent reference to Mr Xi. The posts were quickly deleted."
nytimes.com/2020/01/25/wor…

"Beijing’s response highlights longstanding tensions between national & local officials"
"A professor of infectious diseases in #HongKong who helped identify #SARS, Guan Yi, has accused #Chinese authorities of delaying action & of obstructing his efforts to investigate the #outbreak."

nytimes.com/2020/01/25/wor…

#Wuhan
#coronavirus
#CoronaOutbreak
#coronoavirusoutbreak
Read 6 tweets
26 Jan
"Today, #China faces the spread of another mysterious disease, a #coronavirus, which so far has killed 17 [+] people & infected > 540 [++]. And while Beijing’s response has improved in some ways, it has #regressed in others. It is #censoring criticism."

nytimes.com/2020/01/22/bus…
"It is detaining people for spreading what it calls 'rumors.' It is suppressing info it deems alarming. Though China’s censors are busily scrubbing the Chinese internet, the... online community is registering its disappointment & alarm over Beijing’s handling of the new virus..."
CCP "has tightened its grip on the internet..media & civil society. It has deeper pockets & a greater ability to control the flow of info.[Thus], many of the media outlets, advocacy groups, activists &others who held the gov't accountable in 2003 have been silenced or sidelined."
Read 25 tweets
16 Nov 19
"Uighurs make up close to 90 percent of the population in the south, compared to just under half in #Xinjiang over all, and Mr. Xi set a long-term goal of attracting more Han Chinese settlers."

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
"[#Xi] & other party leaders ordered a quasi-#military organization, the #Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps [#XPCC], to accelerate efforts to settle the area with more #HanChinese, the docs show."
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Here's my history of XPCC: andrewerickson.com/2009/08/people…
I offer a history of #Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps [#XPCC] in the #Encyclopedia of Modern #China:
amazon.com/gp/product/068…

Here are the key excerpts from “People’s Liberation Army: #Military Enterprises & Industry Since 1949” (pp. 112-115): andrewerickson.com/2009/08/people…
Read 15 tweets
30 Oct 19
Honored to publish @WarOnTheRocks!

Make #China Great Again: #Xi’s Truly #GrandStrategy

bit.ly/XiGrandStrategy

PRC strategy has broadly-defined arc that US should address w/ strategy of “#CompetitiveCoexistence” to safeguard interests sustainably amid increasing assertiveness.
@WarOnTheRocks With the grandest & most strategic vision of any great power, Xi & his Party have staked their persistence in power on the proposition that they alone can make China great again, in part by achieving hierarchically prioritized national security interests.

warontherocks.com/2019/10/make-c…
@WarOnTheRocks Realizing this “#ChinaDream,” as #Xi defines it, by 2049 or even earlier requires subordinating #HongKong to Beijing’s unchallenged control, incorporating #Taiwan formally into the PRC, and realizing a variety of disputed #NearSeas sovereignty claims.

warontherocks.com/2019/10/make-c…
Read 12 tweets
16 Oct 19
"Under a secretive deal signed last month with a provincial government in the [#SolomonIslands], a Beijing-based company with close ties to the CCP has secured exclusive development rights for the entire island [of #Tulagi] & its surroundings."

nytimes.com/2019/10/16/wor…
"The island of #Tulagi served as a South Pacific headquarters for Britain then Japan, and during #WorldWarII, its natural deepwater harbor made it a military gem. Now, #China is moving in with plans to effectively take control."

nytimes.com/2019/10/16/wor…
"Even compared to previous #Chinese development deals in nearby countries — including a wharf in #Vanuatu, whose terms were not publicly released for years — the #Tulagi agreement is remarkable for both its scope and lack of public input."

nytimes.com/2019/10/16/wor…
Read 7 tweets
2 Aug 19
ADM #HarryHarris:
#PLARF "controls the 'largest & most diverse #missile force in the world, with an inventory of more than 2,000 ballistic & cruise missiles.'

...if #China were a signatory [to #INF #Treaty], 95% of its #missiles would be in violation"

andrewerickson.com/2019/08/u-s-en…
My take: #Russia wouldn’t fully honor #INF. #China wouldn’t join INF. Unilateral constraint was a losing proposition: China developed the world’s foremost force of #missiles precisely within the ranges that INF would prohibit. So this increasingly antiquated treaty had no future.
1 post-INF option for US—reach agreements w allies/partners to allow rapid introduction of missiles in various contingencies to support their defense. Even if peacetime politics precluded permanent deployment, more concerning scenarios could tip balance in favor of local support.
Read 4 tweets
29 Apr 19
“Andrew Erickson, a maritime militia expert @NavalWarCollege, recently called for the US to “deal with China’s sea forces holistically” & state clearly that it expected China’s #Navy, #CoastGuard & #MaritimeMilitia to follow international rules.” ft.com/content/ab4b16… #PAFMM
“He added that the US had to ‘accept some friction and force Beijing to choose between de-escalating — the preferred US outcome — or to move up against a US red line that China would prefer to avoid’.” amp.ft.com/content/ab4b16…
"The US navy has been conducting FONOPS..sends warships through disputed waters to prevent a claimant from denying others access in violation of int'l law. Analysts have long pushed for a more effective US response to counter China’s mix of mil, paramil & econ coercive measures."
Read 16 tweets
9 Feb 19
Mark Valencia—Adjunct Senior Scholar, National Institute for #SouthChinaSea Studies, Haikou, China—uses Xinhua-like language to accuse @GregPoling @CSIS @AsiaMTI of "Beating the drum for the narrative of the Chinese '#MaritimeMilitia' threat" in #IPPReview
ippreview.com/index.php/Blog…
Valencia cited my piece with @KennedyMaritime in @ForeignAffairs, but that's a 2016 publication.

The latest is here: andrewerickson.com/2019/01/the-ch… & apdf-magazine.com/maritime-numbe….

Instead of piling on @GregPoling, let's "Seek Truth from (Many) Facts" regarding #China's #MaritimeMilitia.
And while we're at it, can those in the know give us the full scoop on #IPPReview?

"operated by International Public Policy Pte. Ltd., a Singapore-registered company which is independent of any organization"

ippreview.com/index.php/Inde…

Wording sounds rather abstract & mysterious..
Read 12 tweets
25 Jan 19
"I want to warn the world about an unprecedented danger that’s threatening the very survival of open societies.

…I’ll focus on #China, where President #XiJinping wants a one-party state to reign supreme."

project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…
"Xi is trying to consolidate all the available info about a person into a centralized database to create a 'social credit system'..people will be evaluated by algorithms that will determine whether they pose a threat to the 1-party state. People will then be treated accordingly."
"#China is not the only #authoritarian regime in the world, but it is undoubtedly the #wealthiest, #strongest & most developed in machine learning & #AI.

This makes #Xi the #most #dangerous #opponent of those who believe in the concept of #OpenSociety."

project-syndicate.org/onpoint/the-ai…
Read 22 tweets
21 Dec 18
#MustRead @NewYorker: China’s Bizarre Program to Keep Activists in Check

newyorker.com/magazine/2018/…

People the state considers troublemakers may be sent to jail—or sent on vacation.

bei lüyou—“to be touristed”—joins passive voice phrases describing things PRC gov’t does to people
Chinese #netizen slang: "whenever law enforcement frames people, or otherwise conscripts them into an activity, the prefix bei is used to indicate the passive tense. Hence: bei loushui (to be tax-evaded), bei zisha (to be suicided), bei piaochang (to be johned), and so on."
"In a joke [Chinese liberals—educated urbanites] liked about the 2016 U.S. election, a bunch of eunuchs are so appalled by the bawdy quarrels among the married folk that they congratulate themselves: 'How fortunate we are to be castrated!'"

newyorker.com/magazine/2018/…
Read 16 tweets