Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Professor @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute. Visiting Prof. @HarvardGovernm1. Assoc. in Research @Harvard @FairbankCenter. Member @CFR_org. Dad.
Daniel Jacob Bilar Profile picture bourbakis🇺🇦 Profile picture Katherine K Profile picture 🇺🇸 WenJE 🇺🇸 Profile picture 4 added to My Authors
Jul 31 7 tweets 11 min read
As #Kissinger shouted at 1969 football game, "On what theory?"
nytimes.com/1970/02/19/arc…

An alternative possibility—the "Ducks in a Row" approach:

Ambitious but failure averse, #Xi faces strong incentives to max forces before attempting one of (recent) history's greatest gambles. "Ducks in a Row" model ≠ theoretical speculation.

#Xi himself has charged #PLA w/ achieving 2027 "Centennial #Military Building Goal" (#建军一百年奋斗目标).

DoD: "this would provide Beijing w/ more credible military options in a #Taiwan contingency."

>>andrewerickson.com/2021/12/prc-pu… ImageImageImageImage
Jun 6 6 tweets 10 min read
Revealing spotlight on #China's emerging #PLA #Naval facility in #Ream, #Cambodia!

Glad to support @nakashimae & @catecadell's exposé @WashPost.

This will be hot topic at #SLD22 where I'm honored to be a delegate. Let's see what officials say! @IISS_org

washingtonpost.com/national-secur… Ships adding up—

"#China’s #navy is already the world’s largest by #s of vessels. The @USNavy has 297 battle-force ships..according to @CRS4Congress, while China has 355 & is projected to have 460 by 2030, according to last year’s @DeptofDefense report."

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Feb 24 7 tweets 13 min read
As tonight’s unfolding #Ukraine tragedy underscores only too starkly—

—the @POTUS @JoeBiden Administration MUST PRESERVE (extended)#DETERRENCE 100% in the forthcoming #Nuclear Posture Review/#NPR.

Must avoid not only “#NoFirstUse/#NFU”—BUT ALSO “#SolePurpose”—road to perdition! Virtue signaling is no substitute for #deterrence signaling!

The #NPR must avoid not only widely-dismissed “#NoFirstUse” (#NFU) language, but also the dangerous concept of “#SolePurpose.”

Text/graphics from @DeptofDefense 2021 #China #Military Power Report show key reasons why. ImageImageImageImage
Feb 11 13 tweets 18 min read
New US #IndoPacific #Strategy!

Read full text here: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

"The #PRC..pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-#Pacific & seeks to become the world’s most influential power. The PRC’s coercion & aggression spans the globe, but..is most acute in..Indo-Pacific." #INDOPACIFIC: The Region by the #s

#POPULATION: Over half the world’s people, including 58% of youth

#ECONOMY: 60% of global GDP

#GROWTH: 2/3 of global economic growth

#GEOGRAPHY: 65% of the world’s oceans &🌊 25% of its land

>#STRATEGY: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
Jan 16 34 tweets 47 min read
Now Out in Paperback! “#China Goes to #Sea: #Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective”

amazon.com/China-Goes-Sea…

@NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime is proud to publish this new version w/ @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks!

Come for the #maps, stay for the #history... Honored to have #JonathanSpence’s endorsement:

“The maritime #history of #China has long been a neglected field..China Goes to Sea bring[s] that knowledge-gap to an end..will be an indispensable companion to those readers seeking to understand where China’s navy may be heading.”
Jan 1 12 tweets 14 min read
#Global #PartyPanopticon:

#PRC "gov't, which has built an extensive digital infrastructure & security apparatus to ctrl dissent on its own platforms, is going to even greater lengths to extend its internet dragnet to unmask & silence those who criticize"

nytimes.com/2021/12/31/bus… ...the #PRC "on @Twitter, @Facebook & other international #SocialMedia.

These new investigations, targeting sites blocked inside #China, are relying on sophisticated technological methods to expand the reach of #Chinese authorities & the list of targets"

nytimes.com/2021/12/31/bus…
Dec 20, 2021 42 tweets 47 min read
#Read this new #Report while there’s still time to act!

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

“US-#China Competition Enters the Decade of Max Danger: #Policy Ideas to Avoid Losing the 2020s”

My latest with Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute!

@RiceUniversity
@RiceUNews
@CES_Baker_Inst
#Xi
#Taiwan As #PRC/#CCP power peaks over this decade, #Xi may seek #Taiwan as historic prize.

To protect their security & rules-based order, US/Allies must mobilize immediately to deter aggression.

The mission is vital, the stakes are high, & the clock is ticking.

bit.ly/PLA2027 Image
Nov 12, 2021 9 tweets 15 min read
Honored to be interviewed by @GrecianFormula on @DeptofDefense's 2021 #China #Military Power Report!

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

Read my big picture takeaways & recommendations for @POTUS/@SecDef @19_forty_five!

Implications for #NationalSecurity Strategy, #Nuclear Posture Review. #Pentagon's #China #Military Power Report is a 173-page treasure trove!

After my all-nighter 6-page summary—bit.ly/DoD-CMPR—I'm still finding food for thought...

Here are some new reflections from my interview w/ @GrecianFormula @19_forty_five:

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po… Image
Sep 13, 2021 25 tweets 37 min read
There’s a gaping (loop)hole in #climate reporting, calculations & countermeasures—#BlueCarbon!

Must finally put #Seabed #CarbonSink on agenda for #COP26...

Here too #China leads world in #carbon damage—by far.

Time for accountability on #RoadToGlasgow!

foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/10/chi… #Ocean covers 71% of world’s surface..<10% mapped w/ modern sonar.

Salt marshes, mangroves, seagrass beds & ultra-deep abyssal #seabed absorb large quantities of #CO2 from atmosphere & balancing critical #climate systems.

Disrupting risks grave & potentially irreversible harms
Mar 29, 2021 14 tweets 28 min read
New @ForeignPolicy article + slide deck:

7 #China #MaritimeMilitia ships ID'ed @ #WhitsunReef/ #UnionBanks in #SouthChinaSea!

Great to publish w/ @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime colleague @rdmartinson88. And always a pleasure to work w/ @BeijingPalmer!

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi… #BottomLine:

***At the very least, 7 People's #ArmedForces #MaritimeMilitia (#PAFMM) vessels have been operating at the #Spratly Islands’ #UnionBanks, including #WhitsunReef—both during the past month & multiple times over the past year.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi…

@ForeignPolicy
Mar 24, 2021 14 tweets 21 min read
Ambassador Huang, allow me to recommend:

The #China #MaritimeMilitia #Bookshelf--

andrewerickson.com/2021/03/the-ch…

Includes multiple official items from your own government on your nation's #ThirdSeaForce.

China is often more transparent in #Chinese :)

Truth best limits "speculation" And here's #China's own official state media documenting progress of its #MaritimeMilitia... in plain #English!

english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/…

News Channels/China Military News
Maritime militia increases drills, expands in scope
Source: China Daily Editor: Yao Jianing
2016-02-02 17:16
Mar 15, 2021 15 tweets 22 min read
Revealing #testimony from @INDOPACOM Commander #Admiral Phil #Davidson @SASCDems/@SASCGOP @HASCDemocrats/@HASCRepublicans!

Ideally, read 41 pp. “US #IndoPacific Command Posture”:

armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…

No time? See my excerpts: bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson

andrewerickson.com/2021/03/testim… "The greatest danger for the United States in this competition is the erosion of conventional deterrence..Absent a convincing deterrent, the [PRC] will be emboldened to take action to undermine the rules-based international order"

armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…

bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
Mar 14, 2021 5 tweets 13 min read
New set of major @ModJapan_en/@ModJapan_jp reports brims with exquisitely detailed graphics!

Key images compiled here: bit.ly/J-MOD

#Security Environment Surrounding #Japan [わが国を取り巻く安全保障環境]

andrewerickson.com/2021/03/japan-…

Topics: #China, #NorthKorea & #Russia Report @ModJapan_en/@ModJapan_jp [1/3]:

#China’s Activities in #EastChinaSea, #Pacific Ocean & Sea of #Japan

[中国情勢(東シナ海・太平洋・日本海)]

mod.go.jp/e/d_act/sec_en…

mod.go.jp/j/approach/sur…

bit.ly/J-MOD

Check out the attached images... just a small sample!
Feb 16, 2021 5 tweets 8 min read
Fmr Director for #Oceania & #IndoPacific #Security Alex Gray:

"As a senior allied government official once noted to me, a map of Imperial #Japan’s #Pacific islands bases in 1941 could almost perfectly overlay #Beijing’s areas of most intense economic & political activity today." "the 5 #Micronesian states have traditionally been the most skeptical of #Beijing & eager to work w/ #Washington & its partners.

...#Palau, Federated States of #Micronesia, & #MarshallIslands are bound to the US through #CompactsofFreeAssociation"

thehill.com/opinion/intern…

#COFA
Jan 8, 2021 7 tweets 16 min read
Let Law & Justice prevail!

#Washington, DC Metropolitan #Police Dept. @DCPoliceDept

Seeks info on #PersonsOfInterest in Unrest-Related Offenses on 6 January 2021 @ US #Capitol Grounds

mpdc.dc.gov/page/may-2020-…

mpdc.dc.gov/sites/default/…

Call 202-727-9099 or TEXT TIP LINE @ 50411 #PHOTO: PERSONS OF INTEREST 1 of 26

#Washington, #DC Metro #Police Department seeks #info on #POI in Unrest-Related Offenses on 6 January 2021 @ US #Capitol Grounds

Let #Law & #Justice prevail!

If you have info to share, call @DCPoliceDept 202-727-9099 or TEXT TIP LINE @ 50411 Image
Jan 7, 2021 7 tweets 14 min read
"#FBI #Seeking #Information Related to #Violent #Activity at the U.S Capitol Building

tips.fbi.gov/digitalmedia/a…

The @FBI is seeking information that will assist in identifying individuals who are #actively #instigating #violence in Washington, DC."

1-800-CALL-FBI(1-800-225-5324) Image "The #FBI is accepting #tips & #digital #media depicting rioting & violence in the U.S. #Capitol Building & surrounding area in #Washington, DC, on January 6, 2021."

tips.fbi.gov/digitalmedia/a…

If file > limit, please call 1-800-CALL-FBI (1-800-225-5324) for additional instructions Image
Jan 5, 2021 5 tweets 12 min read
Check out new report by @zacharyhaver:

#Sansha City in #China’s #SouthChinaSea Strategy: Building a System of Administrative Control”

bit.ly/SanshaCITY

Great @ChinaMaritime Report #12 continues #CMSI tradition @NavalWarCollege!

andrewerickson.com/2021/01/cmsi-c…

With>20 exhibits ImageImageImageImage Back in 2017, @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute Director @peter_dutton approved my proposal for a #China #Maritime #Report series & invited @KennedyMaritime & me to contribute the inaugural report.

11 editions later, this series is better than ever!

@zacharyhaver's work = proof. ImageImageImageImage
Dec 18, 2020 4 tweets 9 min read
With his #JAMS @MC_UPress article on #SinoJapanese #War, it's time to update The #AndrewRhodes #Bookshelf!

bit.ly/AndyRhodes

@NavalWarCollege distinguished grad guides leaders through #IndoPacific w/ Geo-#History, #Strategy & Visual Communications

andrewerickson.com/2020/12/the-an… And by "#Visual #Communications," I mean #MAPS—beautiful, self-crafted maps. That should have existed already, but didn't.

For fresh perspective from the innovative #cartography @RhodesCartogra1 creates, check out: thinkinginspace.info

Prepare to have your horizons expanded!
Dec 17, 2020 26 tweets 38 min read
#US #TriService #MARITIME #STRATEGY!

Focus on #China & #Russia = 2 most significant geopol threats to global peace & prosperity—

Clear stakes:

"China has implemented a strategy & revisionist approach that aims at the heart of the US’ #maritime power."

media.defense.gov/2020/Dec/17/20… "... our three #Sea Services have watched with alarm the growing #naval #power of the People’s Republic of #China & the increasingly aggressive behavior of the Russian Federation.

Our globally deployed naval forces interact w/ #Chinese & #Russian #warships & #aircraft daily."
Dec 5, 2020 19 tweets 9 min read
“Remembering the lewd chatter around the dinner table every night, I felt for the first time that the system I had long considered sacred was in fact unbearably absurd.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china… “My experience with the study outline taught me that the ideas the party sanctimoniously promoted were in fact self-serving tools used to deceive the Chinese people.

I soon learned that they were also a way of making money.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
Nov 16, 2020 16 tweets 24 min read
My interview w/ @GrecianFormula:

With its continued dev't of #ASBMs & associated targeting architecture, #China continues to work on changing the game in #SCS & beyond—but so too does US w/ its own developments & countermeasures.

bit.ly/DF-26-B

19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas… The game is afoot, and much is at stake.

But by no means is the game over for @USNavy, in the #SouthChinaSea or anywhere else.

bit.ly/DF-26-B

My #BottomLine: there’s no cause for declinist defeatism.

19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas…