Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
Prof. of Strategy @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute. Visiting Scholar & Assoc. in Research @Harvard @FairbankCenter. Member @CFR_org. Proud Dad.
Daniel Jacob Bilar Profile picture bourbakis Profile picture Katherine K Profile picture 🇺🇸 WenJE 🇺🇸 Profile picture 4 added to My Authors
13 Sep
There’s a gaping (loop)hole in #climate reporting, calculations & countermeasures—#BlueCarbon!

Must finally put #Seabed #CarbonSink on agenda for #COP26...

Here too #China leads world in #carbon damage—by far.

Time for accountability on #RoadToGlasgow!

foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/10/chi…
#Ocean covers 71% of world’s surface..<10% mapped w/ modern sonar.

Salt marshes, mangroves, seagrass beds & ultra-deep abyssal #seabed absorb large quantities of #CO2 from atmosphere & balancing critical #climate systems.

Disrupting risks grave & potentially irreversible harms
.@Nature: “#marine sediments are the largest pool of organic #carbon on the planet.”

Est. vol. ~7 trillion metric tons—>3X cumulative anthropogenic #CO2 emissions since 1750.

Bottom trawl #fishing & #seabed mining—both #PRC-led—risk damaging disruption.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/10/chi…
Read 25 tweets
29 Mar
New @ForeignPolicy article + slide deck:

7 #China #MaritimeMilitia ships ID'ed @ #WhitsunReef/ #UnionBanks in #SouthChinaSea!

Great to publish w/ @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime colleague @rdmartinson88. And always a pleasure to work w/ @BeijingPalmer!

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi…
#BottomLine:

***At the very least, 7 People's #ArmedForces #MaritimeMilitia (#PAFMM) vessels have been operating at the #Spratly Islands’ #UnionBanks, including #WhitsunReef—both during the past month & multiple times over the past year.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi…

@ForeignPolicy
Thanks to research w/ @rdmartinson88, building on @GregPoling's

Spotlight's now on #Taishan #PAFMM vessels #Yuetaiyu 18000, 18111, 18222, 18333, 18555, 18666, 18777, 18888 & 18999—“The Fancheng Nine”—from a #FarSeas Militia #Squadron (#远海民兵大队) that doesn’t actually fish...
Read 14 tweets
24 Mar
Ambassador Huang, allow me to recommend:

The #China #MaritimeMilitia #Bookshelf--

andrewerickson.com/2021/03/the-ch…

Includes multiple official items from your own government on your nation's #ThirdSeaForce.

China is often more transparent in #Chinese :)

Truth best limits "speculation"
And here's #China's own official state media documenting progress of its #MaritimeMilitia... in plain #English!

english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/…

News Channels/China Military News
Maritime militia increases drills, expands in scope
Source: China Daily Editor: Yao Jianing
2016-02-02 17:16
But don't take my word for it, read #ChinaDaily:
"As the People's Liberation Army upgrades its navy, commissioning dozens of new ships under a watchful global eye,a less noticed force,China's maritime militia, is also improving its operational capability."
english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/…
Read 14 tweets
15 Mar
"The greatest danger for the United States in this competition is the erosion of conventional deterrence..Absent a convincing deterrent, the [PRC] will be emboldened to take action to undermine the rules-based international order"

armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…

bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
ADM Davidson:

"In September 2020, #Cambodia razed a #US-built facility on #Ream Naval Base that served as the headquarters for the National Committee on Maritime Security, reportedly in order to make way for a #PRC #naval #base."

armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03…

bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson
Read 15 tweets
14 Mar
New set of major @ModJapan_en/@ModJapan_jp reports brims with exquisitely detailed graphics!

Key images compiled here: bit.ly/J-MOD

#Security Environment Surrounding #Japan [わが国を取り巻く安全保障環境]

andrewerickson.com/2021/03/japan-…

Topics: #China, #NorthKorea & #Russia
Report @ModJapan_en/@ModJapan_jp [1/3]:

#China’s Activities in #EastChinaSea, #Pacific Ocean & Sea of #Japan

[中国情勢(東シナ海・太平洋・日本海)]

mod.go.jp/e/d_act/sec_en…

mod.go.jp/j/approach/sur…

bit.ly/J-MOD

Check out the attached images... just a small sample!
Report @ModJapan_en/@ModJapan_jp [1B/3]:

#China’s Activities in the #SouthChinaSea (China’s development activities on the features & trends in related countries) [南シナ海情勢(中国による地形埋立・関係国の動向)]

mod.go.jp/e/d_act/sec_en…

mod.go.jp/j/approach/sur…

>>See images!
Read 5 tweets
16 Feb
Fmr Director for #Oceania & #IndoPacific #Security Alex Gray:

"As a senior allied government official once noted to me, a map of Imperial #Japan’s #Pacific islands bases in 1941 could almost perfectly overlay #Beijing’s areas of most intense economic & political activity today."
"the 5 #Micronesian states have traditionally been the most skeptical of #Beijing & eager to work w/ #Washington & its partners.

...#Palau, Federated States of #Micronesia, & #MarshallIslands are bound to the US through #CompactsofFreeAssociation"

thehill.com/opinion/intern…

#COFA
"The #Biden administration has an opportunity, working closely with Australia & New Zealand & other interested partners like #Taiwan, Japan, & France, to signal America’s unwavering support for a #PIF that represents the voices of all #Pacific #islanders"

thehill.com/opinion/intern…
Read 5 tweets
8 Jan
Let Law & Justice prevail!

#Washington, DC Metropolitan #Police Dept. @DCPoliceDept

Seeks info on #PersonsOfInterest in Unrest-Related Offenses on 6 January 2021 @ US #Capitol Grounds

mpdc.dc.gov/page/may-2020-…

mpdc.dc.gov/sites/default/…

Call 202-727-9099 or TEXT TIP LINE @ 50411
#PHOTO: PERSONS OF INTEREST 1 of 26

#Washington, #DC Metro #Police Department seeks #info on #POI in Unrest-Related Offenses on 6 January 2021 @ US #Capitol Grounds

Let #Law & #Justice prevail!

If you have info to share, call @DCPoliceDept 202-727-9099 or TEXT TIP LINE @ 50411 Image
#PHOTO: PERSONS OF INTEREST 2 of 26

#Washington, #DC Metro #Police Department seeks #info on #POI in Unrest-Related Offenses on 6 January 2021 @ US #Capitol Grounds

Let #Law & #Justice prevail!

If you have info to share, call @DCPoliceDept 202-727-9099 or TEXT TIP LINE @ 50411 Image
Read 7 tweets
7 Jan
"#FBI #Seeking #Information Related to #Violent #Activity at the U.S Capitol Building

tips.fbi.gov/digitalmedia/a…

The @FBI is seeking information that will assist in identifying individuals who are #actively #instigating #violence in Washington, DC."

1-800-CALL-FBI(1-800-225-5324) Image
"The #FBI is accepting #tips & #digital #media depicting rioting & violence in the U.S. #Capitol Building & surrounding area in #Washington, DC, on January 6, 2021."

tips.fbi.gov/digitalmedia/a…

If file > limit, please call 1-800-CALL-FBI (1-800-225-5324) for additional instructions Image
"If you have witnessed unlawful violent actions, we urge you to submit any information, photos, or videos that could be relevant at fbi.gov/USCapitol."

tips.fbi.gov/digitalmedia/a…

If file exceeds limit, please call 1-800-#CALL-#FBI (1-800-225-5324) for additional instructions Image
Read 7 tweets
5 Jan
Check out new report by @zacharyhaver:

#Sansha City in #China’s #SouthChinaSea Strategy: Building a System of Administrative Control”

bit.ly/SanshaCITY

Great @ChinaMaritime Report #12 continues #CMSI tradition @NavalWarCollege!

andrewerickson.com/2021/01/cmsi-c…

With>20 exhibits ImageImageImageImage
Back in 2017, @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute Director @peter_dutton approved my proposal for a #China #Maritime #Report series & invited @KennedyMaritime & me to contribute the inaugural report.

11 editions later, this series is better than ever!

@zacharyhaver's work = proof. ImageImageImageImage
#China established #SanshaCity in 2012 to administer most of its #territorial & #maritime claims in the #SouthChinaSea.

@zacharyhaver probes nearly a decade's developments there with insights & detail that will amaze & fascinate many.

digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewconten…

#MustRead #MustSee ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
18 Dec 20
With his #JAMS @MC_UPress article on #SinoJapanese #War, it's time to update The #AndrewRhodes #Bookshelf!

bit.ly/AndyRhodes

@NavalWarCollege distinguished grad guides leaders through #IndoPacific w/ Geo-#History, #Strategy & Visual Communications

andrewerickson.com/2020/12/the-an…
And by "#Visual #Communications," I mean #MAPS—beautiful, self-crafted maps. That should have existed already, but didn't.

For fresh perspective from the innovative #cartography @RhodesCartogra1 creates, check out: thinkinginspace.info

Prepare to have your horizons expanded!
My favorite example:

@RhodesCartogra1's pathbreaking piece @NavalWarCollege won 2019 @thejointstaff #Strategic #Essay Competition's Strategic #Research Paper category.

Cogent geo-history-grounded insights for US strategy toward PRC.

Neatly summarized by his map (attached here)
Read 4 tweets
17 Dec 20
#US #TriService #MARITIME #STRATEGY!

Focus on #China & #Russia = 2 most significant geopol threats to global peace & prosperity—

Clear stakes:

"China has implemented a strategy & revisionist approach that aims at the heart of the US’ #maritime power."

media.defense.gov/2020/Dec/17/20…
"... our three #Sea Services have watched with alarm the growing #naval #power of the People’s Republic of #China & the increasingly aggressive behavior of the Russian Federation.

Our globally deployed naval forces interact w/ #Chinese & #Russian #warships & #aircraft daily."
"We witness firsthand their increasing sophistication and growing aggressiveness. ... The People’s Republic of #China represents the most pressing, long-term strategic threat."

media.defense.gov/2020/Dec/17/20…
Read 26 tweets
5 Dec 20
“Remembering the lewd chatter around the dinner table every night, I felt for the first time that the system I had long considered sacred was in fact unbearably absurd.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“My experience with the study outline taught me that the ideas the party sanctimoniously promoted were in fact self-serving tools used to deceive the Chinese people.

I soon learned that they were also a way of making money.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“CCP had >3.6 million grassroots organizations, each of which was expected to buy a copy of a new publication. If the book was priced at ten yuan per copy, that meant a minimum of 36 million yuan in sales revenue—equivalent to more than $5 million today.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
Read 19 tweets
16 Nov 20
My interview w/ @GrecianFormula:

With its continued dev't of #ASBMs & associated targeting architecture, #China continues to work on changing the game in #SCS & beyond—but so too does US w/ its own developments & countermeasures.

bit.ly/DF-26-B

19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas…
The game is afoot, and much is at stake.

But by no means is the game over for @USNavy, in the #SouthChinaSea or anywhere else.

bit.ly/DF-26-B

My #BottomLine: there’s no cause for declinist defeatism.

19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas…
In @Princeton @PUPolitics's PhD program, I had many great colleagues, incl. @ChongJaIan; w/ @osmastro & @AdamPLiff to follow!

I focused my research on #Chinese #Aerospace Development. Historical summary: andrewerickson.com/2014/09/chinas…

#BottomLine: PRC prioritized #ballistic #missiles.
Read 16 tweets
12 Nov 20
Honored to offer #PolicyRecommendations w/ Gabe Collins @RiceUniversity @BakerInstitute

#HoldTheLine through 2035:

A #Strategy to Offset #China’s Revisionist Actions & Sustain a Rules-Based Order in the #AsiaPacific

bit.ly/HoldTheLINE

#USA #PRC

andrewerickson.com/2020/11/hold-t…
Between now & 2035, imposing costs on strategically unacceptable PRC actions + pursuing defense diplomacy offers a sustainable path to influence PRC behavior & position #IndoAsiaPacific for continued prosperity & growth under a #RulesBased regional system.
bakerinstitute.org/media/files/fi…
The United States should resist yielding strategic principles & position to a People’s Republic of China (#PRC) that is facing increasing constraints on its economic potential, national power growth, & prioritization of competition over citizens’ welfare.

bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-…
Read 11 tweets
9 Nov 20
“A # of the leading #Covid19 #vaccines under development will need to be kept at temperatures as low as minus 80 degrees Celsius (minus 112 degrees Fahrenheit) from the moment they are bottled to the time they are ready to be injected into patients’ arms.” nytimes.com/2020/09/18/bus…
“Companies may have to transport tiny glass vials thousands of miles while keeping them as cold as the South Pole in the depths of winter.” nytimes.com/2020/09/18/bus… #Coronavirus #Vaccine #ColdChain #CoolChain #CoolCargo #SupplyChain #SupplyChains #Logistics en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_chain
“That will not be easy. Vaccines may be manufactured on one continent & shipped to another. They will go from logistics hub to logistics hub before ending up at the hospitals & other facilities that will administer them.” nytimes.com/2020/09/18/bus… #ColdChain en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_chain
Read 5 tweets
2 Nov 20
“even many of its supporters have been frustrated by the [World Health] organization’s secrecy, its public praise for China and its quiet concessions. Those decisions have indirectly helped Beijing to whitewash its early failures in handling the outbreak.” nytimes.com/2020/11/02/wor…
.@WHO “pushed misleading and contradictory information about the risk of [#coronavirus] spread from symptomless carriers. ... Top health officials encouraged travel as usual, advice that was based on politics and economics, not science.“ nytimes.com/2020/11/02/wor…
“That was wrong. China’s surveillance system had failed to spot the outbreak, a failure that experts now say allowed its spread to accelerate. Asked to explain the discrepancy, the @WHO referred questions to #China.“ nytimes.com/2020/11/02/wor…
Read 6 tweets
13 Jul 20
#FullText of Press Statement by @SecPompeo @StateDept, “U.S. Position on #Maritime Claims in the #SouthChinaSea,” 13 July 2020:

bit.ly/SecPompeoSCS

"The United States champions a free & open Indo-Pacific. ..."

andrewerickson.com/2020/07/secret…

(Maps from @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks)
"Today we are strengthening U.S. policy in a vital, contentious part of that region — the #SouthChinaSea. We are making clear: #Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them."
"In the #SouthChinaSea, we seek to preserve peace and stability, uphold #freedom of the #seas in a manner consistent with international #law, maintain the unimpeded flow of #commerce, and oppose any attempt to use coercion or force to settle disputes."

bit.ly/SecPompeoSCS
Read 19 tweets
30 Jun 20
JUST IN—

“Policy Options to Impose Costs on #Beijing’s Coercive Envelopment of #HongKong: Version 1.0”

bit.ly/HongKONG

#NatSecLaw negates #SAR’s judiciary & freedoms

Our #ChinaSignPost™ 洞察中国 report (#102) offers analysis & recommendations

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…
#HongKong’s long-deteriorating situation has come to a head.

Today, just b/f #July1, Beijing imposed a popularly-opposed #NationalSecurityLaw negating the Special Autonomous Region’s judiciary & freedoms.

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…

Dissidents are vulnerable; everyone is at risk.
#Beijing has abruptly abandoned binding commitments & reassurances, which underwrote #HongKong’s handover from Britain in 1997, & its subsequent special treatment by the United States & other nations.

Now, sadly, Hong Kong’s identity & status lies damaged & altered irrevocably.
Read 11 tweets
16 Jun 20
"Prelim. reports..indicated..the [#Indian] soldiers had not been shot, but had been killed in a brawl involving rocks & wooden clubs that was similar to fights that broke out last month along the border & seriously injured several soldiers on both sides."

nytimes.com/2020/06/16/wor…
"A senior #Indian #Army officer said that >20 Indian #soldiers had also been #captured & many might still be in #Chinese custody.

nytimes.com/2020/06/16/wor…

India seemed caught off guard by the new burst of violence, which the 2 sides blamed on each other."

#Ladakh
#GalwanValley
"The spark for the recent tensions seemed to have been a road to a remote #AirForce #base that the #Indian #Army is building through mountain passes in the #GalwanValley >14,000 feet above sea level"
nytimes.com/2020/06/16/wor…

#India
#China
#border
#tension
#incident
#clash
#Ladakh
Read 8 tweets
16 Jun 20
"20 Indian soldiers dead after clash w Chinese troops high in the Himalayas, Indian army says washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…
The conflict is the 1st deadly encounter between Indian & Chinese forces in 45 years & marks a severe escalation in tensions betw/ the 2 nuclear-armed neighbors."
"The deaths occurred in the mountainous region of #Ladakh where #India & #China share a disputed...#border. No Indian soldiers have been killed in clashes on the frontier between the 2 countries since 1975, experts say, & no casualties of this magnitude have occurred since 1967."
"#India at first said that 3 #soldiers had died in a 'violent faceoff' that caused '#casualties on both sides.'

Later Tuesday, the #Indian #Army said in a statement that 17 more Indian #troops who were 'critically injured in the line of duty' had “succumbed to their injuries.'"
Read 9 tweets
26 May 20
As #Beijing prepares to impose a sweeping #NationalSecurityLaw formally invalidating core #1C2S protections, risks are mounting for #HongKongers & their future.

So I’m standing up a #HongKong #WatchFloor:

bit.ly/HongKongWatch

Stay tuned for updates!

andrewerickson.com/2020/05/the-ho…
The clock is ticking toward an unclear, but clearly worrisome, future for #HongKong.

To shine a spotlight on these critical issues, I’m standing up this virtual #WatchFloor.

I’ll improve & update it to the best of my ability, & welcome suggestions via andrewerickson.com/contact.
As #Beijing prepares to impose a sweeping #NationalSecurityLaw that in effect invalidates core #OneCountryTwoSystems-promised protections, risks are mounting for #HongKongers.

Under assault: some of their most cherished values & freedoms.

andrewerickson.com/2020/05/the-ho…

#1C2S#1C1S
Read 19 tweets