Thanks for your interest, @WillRinehart—#China's #rocket & #missile development is a fascinating, important subject!

For a different version of my Cold War history, see:

andrewerickson.com/wp-content/upl…

There are many wonderful experts working in this area these days, so these are just a few initial ideas—hope many others will weigh in...

I'm always looking for more comprehensive works. They're increasingly challenging to write in today's ever-more-specialized world. Tracking China's profusion of programs, activities & achievements can easily become a full-time job!

For China's piloted space program & associated "civilian" efforts, Brian Harvey offers an extremely detailed chronicle in "China in Space: The Great Leap Forward"

link.springer.com/book/10.1007/9…

I know of no one who has painstakingly gathered & curated data on major spacefaring nations' programs the way that Harvey has over the years.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Har… Under Director Dr. Brendan Mulvaney/@B_Mulvaney, the @usairforce/@USSpaceForce's #China #Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) is thriving!

CASI produces & sponsors cutting-edge work on PRC aerospace issues, including this unique @BluePathLabs report on "China's Ballistic Missile Industry" by @PeterWood_PDW & Alex Stone:

airuniversity.af.edu/CASI/Display/A…

For organizational aspects of PRC space activities, @CASI_Research offers some of the very best publications, which they post on their website:

airuniversity.af.edu/CASI/

No! With all due respect, China's not building & training with unique #Shuiqiao-class Bridge Barges "to deliver humanitarian supplies to disaster-struck regions with poor port infrastructure"!

telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202… Make no mistake: #China's new bridge-barges are purpose-built for a #Taiwan invasion scenario. They embody the seriousness with which the PRC under #Xi is pursuing control & absorption of Taiwan by any & all means possible.

The Shuiqiao-185, Shuiqiao-135, Shuiqiao-110—so named for their hull length (bridge stowed), as measured in #OpenSource commercial imagery—are not multirole platforms like aircraft carriers but rather a dedicated platform for landing high volumes of wheeled & tracked military vehicles on beaches.

There are no other such platforms anywhere in the world, because no other country than China is preparing to try to be able to invade Taiwan.

There is no need to resort to such unique platforms for humanitarian assistance & disaster relief, which is not opposed by hostile shore-based forces.

China under Xi would not waste resources of such a specialized, dedicated system if it were not bore-sighted on taking Taiwan by threat, or use, of force.

Full analysis here: andrewerickson.com/2025/03/shuiqi…

Nicholas Eberstadt @AEI just published a seminal future-forecast article @ForeignAffairs.

tl;dr — #Demographics matter because people matter, greatly. #Depopulation propels #China on unprecedented #SCurved slowdown, as Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute & I wrote in 2011: East Asia & Russia face catastrophic aging.

Read this #demographic expose in full—or, at very least, these key excerpts...chinasignpost.com/2011/08/15/chi… "In the decades immediately ahead, East #Asia will experience perhaps the modern world’s most dramatic #demographic shift. All of the region’s main states—#China, #Japan, #SouthKorea, & #Taiwan—are about to enter into an era of #depopulation, in which they will age dramatically & lose millions of people. According to projections from the #Population Division of @UNDESA, China’s & Japan’s populations are set to fall by 8% & 18%, respectively, between 2020 & 2050. South #Korea’s population is poised to shrink by 12%. & Taiwan’s will go down by an estimated 8%. The US population, by contrast, is on track to increase by 12%."

foreignaffairs.com/china/east-asi…

New! #CMSI Note 1: “#Admiral Hu to the Helm: #China’s New #Navy Commander Brings Operational Expertise”



Honored to inaugurate this @NavalWarCollege/@ChinaMaritime series with Director @ChrisHSharman!

Here’s what you need to know now about new #PRC #naval leader #HuZhongming (#胡中明)...bit.ly/HuZhongming


On 25 December 2023, Commander-in-Chief #Xi Jinping, in his capacity as Central #Military Commission Chairman, promoted Vice Admiral #HuZhongming (#胡中明) to Admiral & appointed him Commander of the People’s Liberation Army #Navy (PLAN) (#海军司令员).

bit.ly/HuZhongming

"To spend time in #China at the end of #Xi’s 1st decade is to witness a nation slipping from motion to stagnation &, for the 1st time in a generation, questioning whether a #Communist superpower can escape the contradictions that doomed the #SovietUnion."

newyorker.com/magazine/2023/… "The clips circulate abroad with the mocking caption 'West #NorthKorea,' but at home #censors vigilantly guard #Xi’s honor; a leak from a #Chinese social-media site last year revealed that it blocks no fewer than 564 nicknames for him, including Caesar, the Last Emperor, & 21 variations of Winnie-the-#Pooh."

Honored to be cited by @iandenisjohnson @NewYorker:
newyorker.com/news/persons-o…

"Andrew Erickson, a professor @NavalWarCollege & a visiting professor at @Harvard, said he’s seen no evidence that #China..."

For further background, see: sites.harvard.edu/coexistence/
thewirechina.com/2022/12/04/fix… ...wants to reciprocate, citing #China’s refusal to discuss meaningful arms control. “I don’t see a basis for deep coöperation” with #Xi’s China, Erickson said. “I’m sad to say that.”

newyorker.com/news/persons-o…

KEY: In what areas is the #PRC under Xi willing to accommodate the US?

Some context re. reported speed of #NorthKorean #missile:

All #ballistic #missiles are #hypersonic (faster than Mach 5) at some point in their flight. N.Germany’s V-2, deployed Sept. 1944, was hypersonic during its boost phase. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (#ICBMs)… 1/n

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1577102844729053184

…, first deployed by the US in 1959, are high-hypersonic (Mach 25) throughout their entire flight. Subsequent decades have witnessed the emergence of “#hypersonic” #missile systems that can maneuver instead of following a fixed parabolic trajectory, including #ASBMs, #HGVs… 2/n

As #Kissinger shouted at 1969 football game, "On what theory?"
nytimes.com/1970/02/19/arc…

An alternative possibility—the "Ducks in a Row" approach:

Ambitious but failure averse, #Xi faces strong incentives to max forces before attempting one of (recent) history's greatest gambles.

https://twitter.com/BonnieGlaser/status/1553478583204474880

"Ducks in a Row" model ≠ theoretical speculation.

#Xi himself has charged #PLA w/ achieving 2027 "Centennial #Military Building Goal" (#建军一百年奋斗目标).

DoD: "this would provide Beijing w/ more credible military options in a #Taiwan contingency."

>>andrewerickson.com/2021/12/prc-pu…

Revealing spotlight on #China's emerging #PLA #Naval facility in #Ream, #Cambodia!

Glad to support @nakashimae & @catecadell's exposé @WashPost.

This will be hot topic at #SLD22 where I'm honored to be a delegate. Let's see what officials say! @IISS_org

washingtonpost.com/national-secur… Ships adding up—

"#China’s #navy is already the world’s largest by #s of vessels. The @USNavy has 297 battle-force ships..according to @CRS4Congress, while China has 355 & is projected to have 460 by 2030, according to last year’s @DeptofDefense report."

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

As tonight’s unfolding #Ukraine tragedy underscores only too starkly—

—the @POTUS @JoeBiden Administration MUST PRESERVE (extended)#DETERRENCE 100% in the forthcoming #Nuclear Posture Review/#NPR.

Must avoid not only “#NoFirstUse/#NFU”—BUT ALSO “#SolePurpose”—road to perdition!

https://twitter.com/AndrewSErickson/status/1459198843904528391

Virtue signaling is no substitute for #deterrence signaling!

The #NPR must avoid not only widely-dismissed “#NoFirstUse” (#NFU) language, but also the dangerous concept of “#SolePurpose.”

Text/graphics from @DeptofDefense 2021 #China #Military Power Report show key reasons why.

New US #IndoPacific #Strategy!

Read full text here: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

"The #PRC..pursues a sphere of influence in the Indo-#Pacific & seeks to become the world’s most influential power. The PRC’s coercion & aggression spans the globe, but..is most acute in..Indo-Pacific." #INDOPACIFIC: The Region by the #s

♦ #POPULATION: Over half the world’s people, including 58% of youth

♦ #ECONOMY: 60% of global GDP

♦ #GROWTH: 2/3 of global economic growth

♦ #GEOGRAPHY: 65% of the world’s oceans &🌊 25% of its land

>#STRATEGY: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

Now Out in Paperback! “#China Goes to #Sea: #Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective”

amazon.com/China-Goes-Sea…

@NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime is proud to publish this new version w/ @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks!

Come for the #maps, stay for the #history... Honored to have #JonathanSpence’s endorsement:

“The maritime #history of #China has long been a neglected field..China Goes to Sea bring[s] that knowledge-gap to an end..will be an indispensable companion to those readers seeking to understand where China’s navy may be heading.”

#Global #PartyPanopticon:

#PRC "gov't, which has built an extensive digital infrastructure & security apparatus to ctrl dissent on its own platforms, is going to even greater lengths to extend its internet dragnet to unmask & silence those who criticize"

nytimes.com/2021/12/31/bus… ...the #PRC "on @Twitter, @Facebook & other international #SocialMedia.

These new investigations, targeting sites blocked inside #China, are relying on sophisticated technological methods to expand the reach of #Chinese authorities & the list of targets"

nytimes.com/2021/12/31/bus…

#Read this new #Report while there’s still time to act!

bakerinstitute.org/research/us-ch…

“US-#China Competition Enters the Decade of Max Danger: #Policy Ideas to Avoid Losing the 2020s”

My latest with Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute!

@RiceUniversity
@RiceUNews
@CES_Baker_Inst
#Xi
#Taiwan As #PRC/#CCP power peaks over this decade, #Xi may seek #Taiwan as historic prize.

To protect their security & rules-based order, US/Allies must mobilize immediately to deter aggression.

The mission is vital, the stakes are high, & the clock is ticking.

bit.ly/PLA2027

Honored to be interviewed by @GrecianFormula on @DeptofDefense's 2021 #China #Military Power Report!

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

Read my big picture takeaways & recommendations for @POTUS/@SecDef @19_forty_five!

Implications for #NationalSecurity Strategy, #Nuclear Posture Review. #Pentagon's #China #Military Power Report is a 173-page treasure trove!

After my all-nighter 6-page summary—bit.ly/DoD-CMPR—I'm still finding food for thought...

Here are some new reflections from my interview w/ @GrecianFormula @19_forty_five:

19fortyfive.com/2021/11/how-po…

There’s a gaping (loop)hole in #climate reporting, calculations & countermeasures—#BlueCarbon!

Must finally put #Seabed #CarbonSink on agenda for #COP26...

Here too #China leads world in #carbon damage—by far.

Time for accountability on #RoadToGlasgow!

foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/10/chi… #Ocean covers 71% of world’s surface..<10% mapped w/ modern sonar.

Salt marshes, mangroves, seagrass beds & ultra-deep abyssal #seabed absorb large quantities of #CO2 from atmosphere & balancing critical #climate systems.

Disrupting risks grave & potentially irreversible harms

New @ForeignPolicy article + slide deck:

7 #China #MaritimeMilitia ships ID'ed @ #WhitsunReef/ #UnionBanks in #SouthChinaSea!

Great to publish w/ @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime colleague @rdmartinson88. And always a pleasure to work w/ @BeijingPalmer!

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi… #BottomLine:

***At the very least, 7 People's #ArmedForces #MaritimeMilitia (#PAFMM) vessels have been operating at the #Spratly Islands’ #UnionBanks, including #WhitsunReef—both during the past month & multiple times over the past year.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/29/chi…

@ForeignPolicy

Ambassador Huang, allow me to recommend:

The #China #MaritimeMilitia #Bookshelf--

andrewerickson.com/2021/03/the-ch…

Includes multiple official items from your own government on your nation's #ThirdSeaForce.

China is often more transparent in #Chinese :)

Truth best limits "speculation"

https://twitter.com/cnnphilippines/status/1374572994589126659

And here's #China's own official state media documenting progress of its #MaritimeMilitia... in plain #English!

english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/…

News Channels/China Military News
Maritime militia increases drills, expands in scope
Source: China Daily Editor: Yao Jianing
2016-02-02 17:16

Revealing #testimony from @INDOPACOM Commander #Admiral Phil #Davidson @SASCDems/@SASCGOP @HASCDemocrats/@HASCRepublicans!

Ideally, read 41 pp. “US #IndoPacific Command Posture”:

armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…

No time? See my excerpts: bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson

andrewerickson.com/2021/03/testim… "The greatest danger for the United States in this competition is the erosion of conventional deterrence..Absent a convincing deterrent, the [PRC] will be emboldened to take action to undermine the rules-based international order"

armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…

bit.ly/AdmiralDavidson

New set of major @ModJapan_en/@ModJapan_jp reports brims with exquisitely detailed graphics!

Key images compiled here: bit.ly/J-MOD

#Security Environment Surrounding #Japan [わが国を取り巻く安全保障環境]

andrewerickson.com/2021/03/japan-…

Topics: #China, #NorthKorea & #Russia Report @ModJapan_en/@ModJapan_jp [1/3]:

#China’s Activities in #EastChinaSea, #Pacific Ocean & Sea of #Japan

[中国情勢（東シナ海・太平洋・日本海）]

mod.go.jp/e/d_act/sec_en…

mod.go.jp/j/approach/sur…

bit.ly/J-MOD

Check out the attached images... just a small sample!

Fmr Director for #Oceania & #IndoPacific #Security Alex Gray:

"As a senior allied government official once noted to me, a map of Imperial #Japan’s #Pacific islands bases in 1941 could almost perfectly overlay #Beijing’s areas of most intense economic & political activity today." "the 5 #Micronesian states have traditionally been the most skeptical of #Beijing & eager to work w/ #Washington & its partners.

...#Palau, Federated States of #Micronesia, & #MarshallIslands are bound to the US through #CompactsofFreeAssociation"

thehill.com/opinion/intern…

#COFA