Thread by @TeleFitz

Final written submissions for the Muskrat Falls Inquiry have been posted. Now just need to get them read before oral submissions start tomorrow... muskratfallsinquiry.ca/submissions/

"...decisions taken in the sanctioning, execution and
oversight of the project before December 14, 2015 sometimes forced the Ball Government, like
Odysseus sailing between Scylla and Charybdis, to have to choose the lesser of two evils..." =It's gonna be a long night.

Submission from Premier Dwight Ball and Siobhan Coady addresses wetland capping. "The error resulted from a miscommunication and while it was
unfortunate the evidence indicates that implementing the measure would have only had an intangible
impact..."

Who specifically was involved in the miscommunication? "...a miscommunication between the Department of Municipal Affairs and
Environment and the Cabinet about the possible time frame for scheduling the work..."

Who to next... How about Former Provincial Government Officials (2003-2015) (Aka former PC leadership sans Kathy Dunderdale). They open on "the minds of Newfoundlander’s and Labradorean’s" ... Labradoreans? Labradorians?

Tom Williams emphasizes need to recognize hindsight. "For purposes of clarity
hindsight is defined as the perception of the nature of an event after it has
happened."

"The evidence (...) substantiates that there exists an objective and historical factual basis for the notion
that an agreement with Quebec on elements of the Project was not likely achievable." -Former govt officials 03-15

Ok, this is fascinating. Williams challenges the existence of optimism bias and poltiical bias as referenced by expert witness @BentFlyvbjerg. "Such considerations are grounded in behavioural science and as such are subject to contrary opinion."

Study referenced (open access, whee!): sciencedirect.com/science/articl… // "A primary issue at hand is that Dr. Flyvbjerg’s evidence and perspective was presented in
isolation and no contrary or alternative opinions were canvassed by Commission Counsel."

T Williams: "It is noted that Dr. Flyvbjerg did supply the Inquiry with independent, objective evidence in
regard to the past experience of various mega projects as they relate to both cost and scheduling overruns." thetelegram.com/news/local/hyd…

T Williams: "the relevant members of Group 2003-
2015 submit that they were not fully informed and made aware of some of the risks anticipated with the Muskrat Falls Project to inform the sanction decision."

Mention of contingency level... Submission says Min Finance, Nat Resources not involved+ "..Nalcor was unilaterally deciding how much risk they were
willing to take on, a decision which should have involved GNL." (Govt Newfoundland and Labrador)

"Evidence at the Commission of Inquiry has established that GNL was not informed that Nalcor did not include a contingency allocation for strategic risk in their base estimate."

"First, as it relates to the Nunatsiavut Government, Mr. Gover noted that the only ongoing concern he was aware of was that of methylmercury. GNL was well aware of this concern and an independent expert advisory committee was struck to address the mitigation of methylmercury.."

Former PCs point to IEAC. And that's... I'm just going to try to get through the rest of this.

1/2: "As construction on the Project has progressed, additional environmental concerns have
arisen such as the stability of the North Spur and wetland capping. These issues were
considered by previous governments, including members of Group 2003-2015..."

2/2: "However, the final decision on these issues fell to the subsequent Administration and have been addressed in their testimony."

In discussion of testimony by former premier Danny Williams, his lawyer submits: "The suggestion that the Muskrat Falls Project was a fait accompli from the outset of the Williams administration is simply put, a falsehood."

There's a list of pre-sanction studies...

And now "to the relationship as between Nalcor and GNL (...) GNL relied on Nalcor to a great extent to provide accurate and detailed information, as well as updates with respect to various crucial elements of the Project including risk assessments, costing and scheduling"

Makes point Danny Williams still believes it was the right decision, as per his testimony.

"It is difficult to reconcile the arguments being put forth by some critics given that at the time (2011) they were requesting to have the matter referred to the PUB and then at the time of the Inquiry, criticism was levied that the reference was too early with only DG2 # s.."

On Paul Davis: "Mr. Davis’ evidence was of limited purpose given that, although he was Premier for a 15 month period during construction of the Project, the most significant terms and milestones had long since passed and his administration was primarily in a guidance role..."

On oversight committee: "The structure and composition of the Committee was determined with the assistance of
the Clerk of the Executive Council Julia Mullaley who made a recommendation to Cabinet in March of 2014 that was accepted"

The former government officials dont think enough was said about economic spinoffs of the project. + " While it will take time to pay off this asset, clearly it will be a very valuable revenue generating asset for decades to come."

On civil servants feeling free to speak truth to power: "Group 2003-2015 submits that Judge (Donovan) Molloy’s evidence is not reflective of the numerous current and former civil servants called to provide evidence at the Inquiry (...) none of whom spoke to such a concern."

Former government members: "An area for review moving forward should involve the level and manner of communication between crown corporations and Government officials (elected and non-elected)."

"While the Commissioner is
mandated to address the Terms of Reference as drafted and report as required, it should be
noted that the full story of the Muskrat Falls Project has not yet be written."

Where to next? Going with Kathy Dunderdale.

"Decisions of such magnitude are beyond the authority of any one individual, including the Premier, and were made by the consensus of Cabinet based on the best information that was sought and provided."

Kathy "Dunderdale’s resignation was unrelated to the MFP. In fact, Dunderdale believed at that time, based on the information provided to her, that the MFP was well on track."

"If such information had been provided to her, Dunderdale would not have participated in the sanction or
financial close of the MFP."

It's pointed out- different people in Consumer Advocate role, different positions on the project. Dunderdale arguing criticisms on part of current Consumer Advocate, Dennis Browne, show hindsight bias.

Per Dunderdale's submission: "While the capacity did not exist [in government] to prepare a second full project estimate, the Departments of Natural Resources and Finance were intimately engaged in reviewing the work completed by Nalcor."

"At no time during her tenure as Premier was Dunderdale presented with nominees credentialed in hydro-electric mega-project construction and willing to serve on the Board of Nalcor whom Dunderdale failed to appoint."

On the project schedule (and plan for power in 2017): "At no time prior to sanction or financial close was Dunderdale alerted to any significant risk with the project schedule which would make completing the MFP on time an improbability."

Moving on to... Ed Martin.

"Unforeseen events have befallen the Project."

"In practical terms, when Nalcor went to the market and sought bids on its proposed scope of work, and bids were received, there was expressly no formal obligation on Nalcor to bring the resultant contracts to GNL for review or approval, by legislative design."

" In August 2011, GNL (as distinct from Nalcor) declined to follow the recommendation of the Joint Review Panel to the effect that GNL should seek a full review of the cash flow benefits of the Project, before sanctioning it."

That's it. Calling it a night. And if you hated all that, well me too. But if I didn't tweet it, would it be real?