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People that should know better are openly speculating that #Epstein was murdered, or that foul play was involved. Here's a short thread explaining precisely why appealing as it may be, this conspiracy theory is both likely wrong, & ultimately harmful (1/n)
To many, Epstein's suicide seems too "convenient" because it might let other powerful people evade justice. So it seems more likely foul play was involved. But straight off the bat, we should note that even in America, suicide is more than twice as likely as murder (2/n) 
But, you might say - Epstein was a prisoner & part of a different population. Sure - but as this article in @TheAtlantic explains today, prisoner suicide in USA a real issue. Note the estimated suicide rate of prisoners is ~10x base rate (3/n) theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Note, author of previous uses "commit" which is discouraged I believe. The reality is that mental health issues are prevalent in all walks of life, & prisoners are disproportionately affected. So what's more likely - a suicide in prison, or a murder? (4/n)
To answer that, we turn to 14th Century monk William of Ockham. Ockham's razor tells us that "entities should not be multiplied without necessity" - or that the explanations requiring the least number of collolary assumptions are usually preferable (5/n)
So our competing hypotheses are (1) suicide (2) murder. (1) requires just one person's actions. (2) requires at least two (victim & perpetrator), plus an ability to commit the crime inside a secure facility etc. Already this is a lot more supposition... (6/n)
Coupled with the probabilistic data, we should reject (2) unless very strong evidence emerges to support it. In the absence of anything else, it is NOT more likely that Epstein was murdered, no matter how convenient it might have been to some others. (7/n)
Now, Epstein was an unsympathetic character, & his death, while a relief to some victims, has denied others justice. It's also potentially let other perpetrators off the hook. But the fact that is serendipitous to others doesn't a priori make murder anymore likely (8/n)
It's understandable that conspiratorial narratives are taking hold - and as in the Atlantic article, decision to stand down Epstein's suicide watch needs to be questioned as a very wrong call was made. These require answers, but conspiratorial supposition isn't warranted (9/n)
So what harm do they do? Well for starters, they feed immensely into alt-right narratives. I don't wish to amplify them, but if you search the tag, you'll see people claiming the Clinton's did it, or that this vindicates pizzagate. And much, much worse (10/n)
These are pretty odious assertions, but alt-right figures thrive on conspiracy theory. We shouldn't feed them. The truth is that conspiratorial narratives foster societal distrust, & blind us to reality. They are far from harmless, & we ought be vigilant (11/n)
I'll wrap it up there for now. But if you're curious, lot's on weird world of conspiracy theory in my upcoming book, "The Irrational Ape", on critical thinking & why we get things wrong - it's out next month - details here (12/12, n=12)
