Alexey Khlebnikov Profile picture
Aug 19, 2019 5 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Reports say #SAA is taking control over #KhanShaykhun. It happens despite #Turkey's attempts to re-enforce militants & deploy more of its own forces to the area. It seems Ankara is late.
TRK might try to fight back if it doesn't have a deal with #Russia which is doubtfulю
Today while in #France #Putin said: We are observing constant raids from #Idlib (incl Khmeymim), & moreover we r seeing militants moving from there to other parts of the world... We support #Syrian_Army efforts to carry out local operations to neutralize terrorist threats.
There are reports about #Syria|n-#Russia|n airstrikes on Maarat an-Numan. It seems after taking over #KhanSheikhoun #SAA w/#Russia's support continue its quest to take M4 & M5 highways under their control. Very likely it is exactly what #Putin & #Erdogan agreed on yesterday.
Eventually, the most likely scenario in #Idlib is that #Russia & #SAA will take over M4 & M5 highways piece by piece within 3-4 months leaving #Turkey limited area in the province. It likely comes in exchange to Moscow's support for Turkish buffer-zone plans east of Euphrates.
If that is the scenario in works, #Russia might benefit:
1. It will get M4 & M5 highways under control which will help to revive #Syria|n econ
2. Lets #Turkey focus militarily on NE & to have an upper hand in talk w/the US
3. It will make #Kurds more flexible in talks w/Damascus

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More from @AleksKhlebnikov

Sep 15, 2019
Tomorrow Sept.16 Ankara to host trilateral #Russia-#Iran-#Turkey summit on #Syria. It is expected to announce quite important decisions on, e.g. finalization of the Constitutional Committee & political process in general, #Idlib, return of #refugees, humanitarian aid. Stay tuned.
#Putin just landed in #Ankara for trilateral #Syria summit. Apart of #Syria related issues #Russia, #Iran & #Turkey will likely to discuss the recent attack on #SaudiArabia oil facilities which led to 19% increase of Brent price & will likely increase regional tensions.
#Putin & #Erdogan just finished bilateral talks. Instead of planned hour-long meeting they spent 2 hrs.
Topics discussed are quite evident judging by #Russia's lineup:
- #Lavrov
- FP aide Ushakov
- energy minister Novak
- defense minister #Shoigu
- #Syria special envoy Lavrentiev
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