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When a complex system breaks, it never goes back to its original state. Never. Yes, it seeks out some state of equilibrium, some stable state, but it moves forward from its broken state, so it could be something completely different from what it was originally. 1
When complex systems break, they become far less manageable than they were when they were stable. Because everything is connected to everything, everything is pushed towards instability. 2
IE: airplanes with 2 engines are regarded as safer than those with just 1. But pilots have a saying, “All the second engine does is fly you to the scene of the crash.” The point is that an airplane stable with 2 engines is unstable with only 1, and therefore much harder to fly. 3
Culture is a complex system. American culture is changing, and it will never return to the same state it was in in the 1950s, or 70s, or 90s, or even to last year. We will morph into something new and different. Good? Bad? Who knows. 4
Here at the Ranch, we are trying to reinstitute a grazing method that more closely mimics the way ruminants lived before humans were around. It’s a dramatic change from the conventional western grazing that has dominated here for a century or more. 5
Our pastures are complex systems. Because we changed the way they are grazed, they are changing in response. But as they seek equilibrium, we see plant species come and go. Each plant takes a shot at survival, but it changes the system and the system changes in response. 6
Before western grazing, there were more perennial and fewer annual grasses. We are moving in that direction now, but not with the same mix of perennials and annuals, not even with the same species. Many aliens are doing quite well in their niches. 7
But, as our little chunk of dirt evolves, the climate is changing, so each year the plants get different amounts of water, sun, moisture, wind, and wildlife. What worked last year won’t work next year. 8
And the trees! The trees are so important to the ecosystem, but their lifespans are often longer than the anthropocene! Certainly true of forests if not for individual trees. 9
For trees, it’s like being born on Mars and finding themselves on Venus at dinnertime. So I expect all of the trees to die within the next 50 years. They will be replaced by other species, but which ones? 10
And don’t forget that software is a complex system. It has a life of its own. It morphs and changes the world around it, and that world in turn changes the software. And the people who make the software are changed, too. 11
