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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Bernie is the 3rd most likely candidate to win the nomination IMO.

But I don't think he's in Warren's (or Biden's) tier. Here's why.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/there…
Warren is now ~4 points ahead of Bernie in post-debate national polls. But that's not the only reason she's more likely to win the nomination. Her polling is much more robust than his overall, including stronger numbers in Iowa, more momentum, and better net favorability ratings.
And from any sort of non-polling/"Party Decides" perspective, she's a MUCH more plausible nominee. Running against your own party, like Sanders, is a REALLY hard way to be nominated. Sanders fans won't like this, but those friendly relationships with the D establishment help her.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Dorky poker analogy for those of you who like that stuff:

In poker, there's a big difference between a marginally weak hand (say, 7♣6♣) and a VERY weak hand (7♣2❤️). Likewise, there's a big difference between a somewhat strong hand (K♠J❤️) and a VERY strong hand (K♠K❤️).
With the marginal hand (7♣6♣), you'll lose money if forced to go all-in. But you'll do fine in the context of an actual poker game, especially against hands like K♠J❤️. It has a lot of "playability": you can bluff, plus sometimes you do hit cards to make a flush, straight etc.
With the very weak hand (7♣2❤️), by contrast, you're totally hamstrung. You rarely make a real hand, and you tend to be forced to bluff too often in ways that are pretty obvious. And almost every additional decision you have to make with the hand will compound your problems.
Read 6 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
These GOP defenses of Trump's actions on Ukraine are very thin, and it's hard to see how they convince everyone except for Trump True Believers.
p.s.: I feel like I'm living on another planet from people who are like "The facts on [Mueller / Trump scandal X] were just as bad if Dems as Ukraine if had taken time to explain them". I don't buy really that at all.
Most of the key facts on Ukraine so far are 1) quite simple 2) are viewed as prima facie bad by voters (i.e. with or without a "quid pro quo") and 3) were *admitted to in the WH "transcript"*. All of that matters! It makes the White House's position extremely hard to defend.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Folks, the margins of error in individual state & national primary polls on support among black voters, or Hispanics, are often very high (e.g. around +/- 10%). That why a candidate can be at 19% in one poll and 5% in another or whatever. People can make too much of these swings.
And that's assuming that small sample sizes are the only problem with estimating support among black or Hispanic Democrats, which they aren't. Getting truly representative samples of black or Hispanic voters can be a challenging problem.
If you aggregate across a range of polls, then so far, no candidate apart from Biden *really* seems to have made a lot of headway among African-Americans. And that's reflected in his fairly clear and consistent lead in SC, where sample sizes among black voters are a lot larger.
Read 3 tweets

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Matt Delmont
@mattdelmont
"Biden takes flak on race and busing. But his views may still mirror America’s" by @isaacstanbecker. This is a good piece that quotes historian Brett Gadsden, whose book "Between North and South" is the best place to start to understand Biden and "busing" washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/06…
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
So we seem to have stopped discussing electability when #Bernie started slipping below #Warren and #Harris's favorables topped #Biden's.
Huh.
Maybe women ARE the ticket for 2020.
#Campaign2020
A month from now when the main debate stage is Biden, Bernie, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Beto, Klobuchar, Booker, Inslee, Castro and maybe Yang & Williamson, there will be more shifts in the polls.
One issue that will be raised is age.
No one will need to say it--we'll see it.
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Victoria Brownworth #EqualityActNow
@VABVOX
Calling Pennsylvania "#Biden's home state" as an excuse for why his base of operations isn't Delaware, where he was senator for THREE DECADES, ignores that he's trying to deflect from what Delaware stands for and what he did there when #Warren is going to hammer him on it.
#Biden never lived in #Philadelphia, ever.
He was born in Scranton, a white town upstate that is diametrically oppositional from Philadelphia which is majority black and the poorest big city in America.
Biden moved to Delaware from Scranton, PA when he was TEN.
It's fine to decide to distance yourself from the place--DELAWARE, not PA-- you lived for SIXTY SIX YEARS & where you grew up, got married, raised your kids & grandkids. But don't pretend it's because you are FROM Philadelphia when you just want our votes & your state is tiny.
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Toly Rinberg
@tolyrinberg
Here's your reminder that, 2 years under Trump, state-sponsored censorship of climate info is still ongoing and pervasive across fed agencies (@EPA, @StateDept, @Interior, @USDOT, …)

Check out @andmbergman & my @NYTopinion piece and examples in THREAD: nytimes.com/2017/11/22/opi…
In Oct 2018, @USDOT, which oversees transportation, one of the largest sectors contributing to anthropogenic U.S. GHG emissions, obfuscated climate info by removing its "Climate Change Clearinghouse" page, among several others

@CNN's @Rene_MarshCNN broke: cnn.com/2018/12/14/pol…
.@EPA's removal of epa.gov/climatechange is still the largest case of online climate change censorship by a fed agency

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Jane Coaston
@cjane87
Here’s a subject upon which I have been thinking and discussing with conservatives: how abortion is a weirdly complex intra-party issue for the GOP, way more than you might think.

@538politics wrote a fascinating piece on the subject: fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-a…
@538politics Now, these numbers aren’t big. But they aren’t small, and might be why @WSJ has written “reassuring” op-eds on why Kavanaugh doesn’t put Roe in jeopardy, and why a few conservative sites have been discussing this issue in a different way than you might expect.
@538politics @WSJ Via @LoConservative
Read 4 tweets
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
1⃣Last night I gave my first public lecture on extreme weather since being "investigated" by Rep. Raul Grijalva in 2015. In the lecture I tell a story and present updated, consensus science on extreme weather. Let's get started ...
2⃣I started with a disclosure of everyone I've voted for in presidential elections since 1988. I also included who I supported in 1980 (John Anderson, of course), the first election I can remember actually following, when I was 12 and in 7th grade.
3⃣I start with the Wikileaks releases of John Podesta's emails in 2016.
I turned up in them. I know. It's nuts.
In them a staffer at the Center for American Progress emailed Podesta and billionaire Tom Steyer to brag about getting me removed as a writer for Nate Silver's 538.
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