Thread by @KitTalksSports

As officially endorsed by @bomani_jones, here is my annual thread looking at the PFHOF initial ballot.

The two names most visible with HOF debates lately are Eli Manning and Jason Witten, both of whom I think are borderline at best, but frankly talking about any active player's HOF chances aside from maybe five obvious names is futile; it all depends on who else is on the ballot.

We're dealing with a serious backlog that we may never be fully caught up to. There are 122 names on this years ballot, all of whom at a minimum are multi-time pro bowlers, about a third of whom have a claim to being the best at their position for a year or two.

Getting from 122 to 5 names is impossible. Getting to a finalist list of fifteen is not noticably easier, you are splitting some infinitesimal hairs with some of these names. Some were assumed to be locks when they were active but have been dragged into a quagmire.

The next step, announced sometime in November, is the semi-final ballot, a list of twenty-five, the most orderly we can possibly be. And an easy shortcut from 122 to 25 is to look at each individual position and make an all-star team.

Quarterbacks
(7) – Randall Cunningham, Jake Delhomme, Boomer Esiason, Jeff Garcia, Jeff Hostetler, Dave Krieg, Donovan McNabb

Maybe this is why there are so many Elisha backers, as the QB queue is currently rather thin. But it won't be by the time Eli retires.

McNabb is head and shoulders the best on the list, with Cunningham a cult figure who won't make it.

Those who emphasize Eli's career passing yards figure should note that Krieg was 8th in yards when he retired. Esiason was 9th. Neither of them have ever made the semifinal cut.

Running Backs
(19) – Shaun Alexander, Mike Alstott (FB), Tiki Barber, Earnest Byner, Larry Centers, Corey Dillon, Eddie George, Priest Holmes, *Edgerrin James, Daryl Johnston (FB), Thomas Jones, Maurice Jones-Drew, Eric Metcalf (also WR/KR/PR), Lorenzo Neal (FB), (cont)

Clinton Portis, Fred Taylor, Herschel Walker (also KR), Chris Warren, Ricky Watters

We have a nearly impossible logjam at running back, and it seems that the market forces that de-emphasize halfbacks have spread to the voters, making it hard for any of them to make their case.

There is old conventional wisdom that states that 10,000 yards is a benchmark similar to 3000 hits in baseball. That no longer holds. James is still out in this, his fifth year of eligibility. Longer waits for other 10kers like Dillon, Taylor, Barber, George, Watters.

Two eligible 10kers, Ricky Williams and Jamal Lewis, were flat out left off. No one even thought to bring their name up, which is practically all it takes to get on the initial ballot, having retired between 5 and 25 seasons prior, and a nicely written letter.

Wide Receivers
(12) – *Isaac Bruce, Gary Clark, Donald Driver, Henry Ellard (also PR), Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Derrick Mason, Muhsin Muhammad, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith, Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne

WR used to be a logjam, but it's better now.

The voters cleaned up the Iron Triangle of Andre Reed, Tim Brown, and Cris Carter who all blocked each other for years because no one could agree on which was better. [NUMBER 88] was voted in on time, and T.O. was put in after paying a two year pain in the ass tax, which is fair.

So now Wide Receiver is relatively clean, with a fair amount of people with strong cases, but no overwhelming omissions. Reggie Wayne probably skips to the front of the line. Isaac Bruce is popular with voters but I thought Torry Holt was the more dangerous Ram in those days.

We also see (pay attention, Witten voters) that raw catches is not a convincing case on its own. Bruce and Hines Ward have over 1000 catches and are still on the outside looking in, Ward only getting to the semi-final cut.

Tight Ends
(6) – Dallas Clark, Ben Coates, Keith Jackson, Brent Jones, Jeremy Shockey, Wesley Walls

Another relatively thin spot. Witten would probably best any of these names, but this won't be the ballot when Witten gets his chance. He'll have a tougher road than this.

Offensive Linemen
(19) – Willie Anderson (T), Matt Birk (C), *Tony Boselli (T), Lomas Brown (T), Ray Donaldson (C), *Alan Faneca (G), Kevin Gogan (G/T), Jordan Gross (T), Chris Hinton (G/T), Kent Hull (C), *Steve Hutchinson (G), Lincoln Kennedy (T/G), Olin Kreutz (C), (cont)

Chris Samuels (T), Jeff Saturday (C), Brian Waters (G), Richmond Webb (T), Erik Williams (T), Steve Wisniewski (G)

Interior lineman is probably the toughest grouping to cut through in this ballot, along with MLB and safety.

Last year Kevin Mawae got in, with Faneca and Hutcinson both finalists. Apparently this group of voters is better at dealing with iron triangles at positions than previous ones. One of Faneca or Hutchinson is a good bet to be inducted in 2020, but there's no telling which one.

Boselli at tackle has a lot of backers despite a short career; the PFHOF is much more comfortable with shortened career arcs than baseball is. Center is also unusually stacked: Kreutz and Birk were multiple time all pros.

Defensive Linemen
(11) – John Abraham (DE also LB), La’Roi Glover (DT/NT), Casey Hampton (DT/NT), Chester McGlockton (DT), Leslie O’Neal (DE), Simeon Rice (DE), *Richard Seymour (DT),
Justin Smith (DE), Neil Smith (DE), Greg Townsend (DT/NT), Bryant Young (DT)

Pass rusher used to be lousy with overqualified nominees like Richard Dent, Charles Haley, Chris Doleman, Kevin Greene, but that's been cleaned up over the last decade. Which isn't to say that these candidates aren't strong, but it's tough to unite behind one or two.

How do you tell the difference between John Abraham and Leslie O'Neal when the difference is literally one sack? How do you differentiate between Simeon Rice and Neil Smith, who both have 100+ sacks and won titles after finding a new team in free agency?

What name stikes more fear into your heart: Simeon Rice or Eli Manning? Do you think people devoted more time in walkthroughs to stopping Richard Seymour, or Jason Witten?

Greg Townsend leads the Raiders in career sacks and he isn't even the fifth or sixth best name in his positional grouping. To repeat myself, this is really, really, hard!

Linebackers
(17) – Carl Banks, Cornelius Bennett, Lance Briggs, Tedy Bruschi, James Farrior, London Fletcher, Seth Joyner, Wilber Marshall, Clay Matthews, Willie McGinest (also DE), Sam Mills, Chris Spielman, Takeo Spikes, Darryl Talley, Zach Thomas, (cont)

Jessie Tuggle, Patrick Willis

At inside linebacker in particular, this is an incredibly difficult listing to work through. I don't see any daylight between London Fletcher, Tedy Bruschi, or Sam Mills.

and that breaks my heart because I started doing this as a way of talking up Sam Mills as a historical force. The voters waited too long to pull the trigger, and now he's trapped as history speeds by him. And here comes Patrick Willis to make that even harder.

Defensive Backs
(15) – Eric Allen (CB), *Steve Atwater (S), Ronde Barber (CB/S), LeRoy Butler (S),
Nick Collins (S), Merton Hanks (S), Rodney Harrison (S), Albert Lewis (CB), *John Lynch (S), Terry McDaniel (CB), Tim McDonald (S), Troy Polamalu (SS), Bob Sanders (S),
(cont)

Troy Vincent (CB), Darren Woodson (S)

Safety is also hopelessly weighed down, with some very deserving names probably pinning their hopes on the seniors ballot by now.

Atwater and Butler are the starting safeties on the 1990s all-decade team. Lynch was a key part of a signature defense of the early 2000s, Woodson was constantly talked about as a future Hall of Famer while he was active. Bob Sanders would've gotten there if his career was longer

But a crowded room gets even more crowded, because here comes Troy Polomalu, jumping over the line the same way he jumped over centers with his perfectly timed rushes. This is hard, man. It breaks my heart.

Punters/Kickers
(11) – David Akers (K), Gary Anderson (K), Jason Elam (K), Jeff Feagles (P),
Jason Hanson (K), Sean Landeta (P), Ryan Longwell (K), Nick Lowery (K), Reggie Roby (P), Rohn Stark (P), Matt Turk (P)

I generally don't think specialists should make it in, but this is instructive to look at: on that list is almost every kicker and punter that's worth remembering from the past thirty-five years.

Special Teams
(5) – Johnny Bailey (PR/KR also RB), Josh Cribbs (KR/PR also WR), Mel Gray (PR/KR also WR), Brian Mitchell (KR/PR also RB), Steve Tasker (ST also WR)

I don't know how good a return specialist would have to be to truly test the Hall. I suppose we'll find out when Devin Hester retires.

Usually I round out my semi-cut with three coaches, but this year coaches will be considered in a separate category. I think this is smart and I hope it's a permanent decision, trying to measure Don Coryell vs. Richard Seymour makes hard choices even harder.

so here's my 2020 HOF Ballot All-star team:

QB Donovan McNabb
RB: Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis
WR (3, no TE): Reggie Wayne, Torry Holt, Chad Ochocinco
T: Tony Boselli, Chris Samuels
G: Alan Faneca, Steve Hutchinson
C: Matt Birk

DE: John Abraham, Neil Smith
DT: Richard Seymour
OLB: Lance Briggs, Willie McGinest
ILB: Zach Thomas, Sam Mills
CB: Troy Vincent, Ronde Barber
S: Troy Polomalu, LeRoy Butler
Three More Guys: Bryant Young, Tedy Bruschi, Priest Holmes.

All of those guys are worthy, as are about 15 more that I couldn't shoehorn in. You want Eli in? You want Witten in? Hell, you want someone with a strong case like Kam Chancellor or Frank Gore in? Get in line, it goes around the block twice.

@threadreaderapp
unroll, i need to save this in word