Thread by @pietercleppe

My latest @Telegraph comment: The EU risks squandering its last chance to do a deal with Britain
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/… #Brexit @BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier

Parliament can’t really agree on much:

There is no support, at least not yet, for any of the alternatives: a Brexit deal, allowing “no deal”, revoking article 50, an early election or a second referendum

Given that Boris Johnson may adopt a much more radical position on Brexit in the event of an election, in order to gain votes from the Brexit party, the EU would do well to realise a deal with him now is likely to be much easier rather than one later. Betting on Labour is risky.

The key difference between Boris Johnson and Theresa May is that the former is much keener for the UK to have an independent trade policy

Bojo still wants to preserve the Good Friday Agreement but by minimising border checks instead of avoiding them altogether, leading to EU accusations he was no longer committed to the "frictionless" trade May signed up to but only to trade that was "as frictionless as possible".

The backstop is intended to protect the “Good Friday Agreement” and because of this, many equate it with this important peace accord, but as a new @OpenEurope briefing highlights, this is fundamentally mistaken:
openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/bre…

The backstop does not meet the same tests for cross-community consent as the Good Friday Agreement. Nationalists support it but most unionists oppose it.

There is, however, cause for optimism, as the EU has been moving too, even though one needs a microscope to see it. For a start, there was the EU’s willingness to grant Ireland some slack on border checks in case of "no deal”, at least for a while.

Secondly, given how leaky the EU’s external border is, it would be weird if Ireland were to come under intense pressure to deliver a perfectly protected border from those countries that fail in exactly that.

On this, we can spot some movement, as there were some rumours about tolerating the same lacklustre VAT collection in Northern Ireland as elsewhere in the EU.

But apart from this glimmer of hope, nothing is moving on the EU side. EU negotiators have dismissed most UK demands for flexibility (e.g. exempting small traders) which ultimately come down to tolerating a few extra holes in the external border, for the sake of peace

Even if Ireland would move on the backstop, flexibility from Ireland’s EU partners in tolerating a border that is at least as leaky as the EU’s external border elsewhere will be absolutely crucial in order to come to a deal

But apart from this glimmer of hope, nothing is moving on the EU side. EU negotiators have dismissed most UK demands for flexibility (e.g. exempting small traders), which ultimately come down to tolerating a few extra holes in the external border, for the sake of peace.

Even if Ireland would move on the backstop, flexibility from Ireland’s EU partners in tolerating a border that is at least as leaky as the EU’s external border elsewhere will be absolutely crucial in order to come to a deal.

Also published in full here: cleppe0.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-eu…