Again. Something concrete that he can point to, to argue that the Phase Two dynamic will be different. That AA will have to be made to work /9
Then the choice facing Dublin is between 'no deal' chaos now (and guaranteed economic damage) - or a concession that leads to a prolonged hunt for alternative arrangements, and the much more distant risk of a 'no deal' /11
a) 4% GDP loss in year one, per Irish Central Bank
b) a return to a border in Ireland, assuming Dublin wont want checks with EU26. /12
Particularly if a Johnson administration could show a majority for WA with a 'time-limit', and the 'fix' could be sold as a great 'win' and act of statesmanship by @LeoVaradkar to save the day.
1) Leo has politics too! Polls show 8/10 Irish votes want him to stand firm on the backstop.
If British pressure goes on with veiled economic threats, you could see that figure going to 10/10!
In short, bullying will likely backfire. /15
So while an flex is always 'Ireland decision' - it is not limitless. /16
If they sit tight and refuse to budge, then they get either
a) A general election, new maths/government
b) a no deal, but with the EU doing the arm-twisting. /18
For now, Brexiteers remain firmly wedded to the belief they can leave EU single market & customs union and deliver a tech border in pretty short order. /21
Because, for the reasons outlined above, I'm not betting yet on Ireland, or the Irish border communities folding and accepting half-measures./22 ENDS