Thread by @pmdfoster

So Q I hear being posed in Brussels and Whitehall: as @BorisJohnson enters the Westminster firestorm, does he still have credibility to do a #Brexit deal ahead of Oct 31?

In short, it looks very hard, as I argue here after asking around.

1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

@BorisJohnson "Technical talks" continue in Brussels today, but not even, we are told, at the level of David Frost, the PM's sherpa.

Throughout #Brexit technical talks have always been a byword for marking time in the hope that something better shows up. See negotiations passim. /2

@BorisJohnson On substance the two sides really are comparing apples and oranges.

In a sentence, the UK wants a trade border in Ireland to resolve the #Brexit trilemma. The Irish do not. /3

@BorisJohnson The Johnson strategy (if you can call it that) was essentially to resubmit the UK's failed papers on a technological 'max fac' solution to the border, and hope that a 'no deal' threat would win them a re-mark, and a grudging pass.

But that fox now been shot /4

@BorisJohnson First the Benn Act killed the 'do or die' pledge by essentially making it illegal.

So Downing Street changed up by hinting they might go illegal in that case.

But Lady Hale's ruling snuffed that out too.

The Emperor was already down to his undies. And he lost those y'day. /5

So. If the hardball strategy is now spent, what then?

Can Johnson - as Dublin and Brussels and some in UK system hoped he might - pivot towards a more realistic 'landing zone'? Is that still on the cards? /6

Well this is where the credibility question comes in.

Credibility of @BorisJohnson as an interlocutor given prorogation fiasco; credibility of his political position in London to deliver any deal involving a huge climbdown. /7

The talk is all around some kind of deeper "Northern Ireland specific" arrangement, but from an EU perspective that means keeping NI in the customs territory of the EU.

Can Johnson really go there? And if he did? Would Labour vote for it? /8

EU contacts are deeply sceptical they would.

Why would Labour bail out @BorisJohnson when they have a chance make him break his 'do or die' pledge?

Downing St talks of 30,40,50 Labour MPs. Mmm...asked one Leave constituency Lab PM last night on that? He said "Less than 10". /9

@BorisJohnson Yes, there's talk from @SKinnock crew, but look at what they want? All those goodies attached to an WAB protecting workers rights etc. While Johnson wants a hard Canada-minus FTA that will hit jobs, supply chains and wages. Can Labour vote for that? /10

@BorisJohnson @SKinnock Having been failed three times by @theresa_may the EU side isn't going to take word of Johnson that he can get a deal through...indeed presumption, asking around, is that he'll not risk diluting his #Brexiteer credentials ahead of election that will be fought on the barricades/11

@BorisJohnson @SKinnock @theresa_may The appointment of Cummings;

The decision to rebuff EU overtures (which were made in July) to keep deal space open and go full "abolish the backstop".

The prorogation.

The continued threats a la @SteveBarclay last week in Madrid.

What does that all add up to? /12

@BorisJohnson @SKinnock @theresa_may @SteveBarclay Well, for many EU contacts it seems pretty clear that its a government more committed to campaigning than governing or deal-making, given the compromises that would involve.

And in current world compromise not been much of a 'sell' at the polls. /13

@BorisJohnson @SKinnock @theresa_may @SteveBarclay So plenty on EU side braced for Johnson going hard at #EUCO on Oct 17....maybe a walkout, or, as one source put it, "calling Macron and Merkel all manner of names" and then returning defiant to London. Some even see the Hale ruling as giving Johnson cover for extension request/14

@BorisJohnson @SKinnock @theresa_may @SteveBarclay The only way I can see that dynamic changing is if Johnson does huge pivot; brings Labour on board and demonstrates that he can get quorum in Parliament for a 'realistic' deal - that would reset negotiations. But how likely do we think that is on a scale of 1-100? /15

@BorisJohnson @SKinnock @theresa_may @SteveBarclay There might have been a world where those Labour MPs were seriously in play, had Johnson taken a more middle road?

But after all that's happened? After prorogation - with the emphasis, on Labour benches, on the 'rogue'. /16

All of which creates massive inertia on the EU side.

Benn Act gives everyone an 'out shot'. So the EU talks patiently but without compromising, they wait, watch and then hope a General Election brings some clarity - and a government with credibility to do a deal /17 ENDS