Thread by @pmdfoster

So @BorisJohnson heads to meet @JunckerEU filled with optimism about prospects for an 11th-hour deal.

I've tried to do a dispassionate analysis of what deal? Its negotiability in Brussels and its saleability in London? Can he thread the needle? 1/thread
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

@BorisJohnson @JunckerEU DEAL 1 - the 'slice n dice' to abolish backstop.

- Agree all-Ireland SPS, electricity and travel area...and then
- kick the other (customs VAT etc) into transition/trade talks. /2

Negotiability with EU?

- practically zero. Would require massive EU u-turn on 'fully open' border in Ireland, Single market integrity. And to throw Ireland under bus politically.

- A border is a border, even if set back. Tech/exemptions cannot deliver.

Cant see it /3

BUT if he did? Saleable in London?

Maybe? Would 30-40 pro Brexit MPs support such a deal?

Perhaps, but it would open door to Canada Dry (bone dry) FTA for future.

This is MILES from Labour 'worker-friendly' Brexit via Customs Union. AND helps Johnson meet 'do or die' pledge/4

Even for pro-Brexit Leave Lab MPs who want to get the job done...that is a BIG ask.

Viz. To bail out a Tory PM, and one as divisive as @BorisJohnson and consign UK to a Brexit that is gonna cause trade disruption and (Unions know) suppress wages to keep UK competitive. /5

@BorisJohnson DEAL 2: The NI-only.

- Johnson accepts slice n dice won't work. Agrees off shelf NI-only deal, throws DUP under bus. Gets a few sweeteners on consent etc and claims, at least, that he forced EU to reopen withdrawal agreement. /6

@BorisJohnson Negotiability with EU: very high. EU clear it can go back to NI-only that @MichelBarnier devised in 2018 - sorts Ireland problem (at least from EU perspective) and is pre-cooked text so works in timeframe. They'll also chuck in some sweetners/camouflage etc. /7

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier Saleability in London? Seems tough to me, since NI-only opens door to 'buccaneers' Brexit' for GB - so super hard. Johnson loses DUP, but perhaps keeps most Tory Brexiteers.

But this deal creates a HARD border in Irish Sea if UK is determined to diverge via trade deals. /8

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier So same issues for Labour MPs, with added issue of @NicolaSturgeon going ballistic - as she did when NI-only emerged in Dec 2017. "where is our 'best of both worlds' single market Brexit." Full reg/customs border in Irish Sea also disaster for NI economy. Seems hard sell to me/9

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @NicolaSturgeon DEAL 3: go back to the can kicks (time limits to backstop, unilateral exit clauses) that Johnson ruled out in his original statement to House on July 25 /10
gov.uk/government/spe…

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @NicolaSturgeon Negotiability in EU? Well, officially not on cards, but member states still don't rule out. Ireland will hate, as a 'countdown to a border poll' BUT its a tougher conversation for @LeoVaradkar to argue for a 'no deal' if there's a means to kick the can 5-10 down line /11

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @NicolaSturgeon @LeoVaradkar Right now the choice is between 'no deal' (and trade border in Ireland) and the same border at end of transition in 14 months.

But it would, at least, be harder to justify 'no deal' to rest of EU if time horizon had gone way out, creating space for gravity to take over /12

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @NicolaSturgeon @LeoVaradkar But I make no firm predictions on whether EU goes for time-limit or exit mechanism. Need a new mandate and time is now V short and behaviour of UK govt isn't helping inspire confidence on EU side. I think increasingly marginal chances, but not impossible. /13

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @NicolaSturgeon @LeoVaradkar Saleable in London? Well, same issue with Labour MPs delivering Johnson victory; and would depend, per @SKinnock group on Labour getting the Withdrawal Agreemeent add-ons to protect workers. But how to square that with the bone dry FTA that Tories want? Hard. /14

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @NicolaSturgeon @LeoVaradkar @SKinnock This is old issue - the Brexit row is not really over the backstop as such; it's a proxy for what kind of Brexit (hard/soft aligned/free) you want. This doesn't resolve that if Political Declaration is hard over to 'no customs union'. Think when it comes it to it, be tough. /15

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @NicolaSturgeon @LeoVaradkar @SKinnock DEAL 4: Extend transition
- accept slice n dice doesn't fly, but argue that progress on all-Ireland SPS/Agri and other elements has created momentum so Johnson can say he's content that customs/border etc CAN be fixed in trade talks. Backstop still there, but never be needed /16

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @NicolaSturgeon @LeoVaradkar @SKinnock To help the 'sell' EU agrees to tinker with transition period to make clear it's happy to keep trying as long as possible, while putting a near term (aspirational) date on the paperwork...

Pretty thin stuff, I realise. Lipstick on the pig etc...but a deal that cd fly? /17

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @NicolaSturgeon @LeoVaradkar @SKinnock Negotiability with EU: sure, if backstop remains, happy to dress it up any way you like. BUT they did that with @theresa_may and it didn't fly, so as with ALL of the above, Johnson must demonstrate there's a majority in Parliament. No trust otherwise. Can hardly blame them! /18

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @NicolaSturgeon @LeoVaradkar @SKinnock @theresa_may Saleability? well, might work for Labour with those WAB sweeteners, but it wd blow up Tory party & turbocharge @brexitparty_uk betrayal narrative. Seems like a pretty extraordinary switcherooo even from Johnson - even if EU side has touching faith in his powers of persuasion /19

@BorisJohnson @MichelBarnier @NicolaSturgeon @LeoVaradkar @SKinnock @theresa_may @brexitparty_uk Conclusion: genuinely hard to see where a negotiable deal in BXL intersects with a saleable deal in London, no Benn Bill gives Labour something to fall back on.

We are a fair way from squaring #Brexit circle still - even if it its suits both sides not to say so for now 20/ENDS