Thread by @ShachiKurl

Good Evening everyone! On this Tuesday night, I invite you to follow along as I walk you our newest latest #elxn43 data.

At the halfway point of the campaign, what we're seeing is the widest @CPC_HQ lead since the writs were drawn: #elxn43

@CPC_HQ But while you might think that seven point CPC lead over @liberal_party means @AndrewScheer is @JustinTrudeau's biggest headache... think again, because what's causing this is what we're calling the centre-left scuffle... #elxn43

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau Basically, left-leaning voters in this country are continuing to behave like un-set jello... they jiggle this way, they jiggle that way. They remain uncommitted, esp. @NDP & @CanadianGreens supporters. CPC & Bloc voters are more solid #elxn43

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens Look at this another way... by vote retention... that is, the number of people who voted for a party in 2015 who also say they'll stick with the same party this time around #elxn43

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens So, this inability - so far - for the incumbent @liberal_party to lock in left leaning voters leads to some interesting choices on second vote. Here, the @NDP is the go-to choice among those uncommitteds identifying a back-up plan: #elxn43

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens Could it be that the NDP becomes a safe space for those who can't bring themselves to vote Conservative, but also can't bring themselves to vote Liberal? I'll come back to that, but first, here's a pretty vote intent trendline! #elxn43

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens Now let's go back to digging beyond the toplines and going beyond the horserace... a look at the battlegrounds shows the @CanadianGreens picked up in BC, the @CPC_HQ are up a little in ON, and the @BlocQuebecois had a good week in QC #elxn43

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens @BlocQuebecois Here's a time-lapsed look at the vote picture in Quebec... look at how those @liberal_party and @BlocQuebecois trendlines are inching closer #elxn43

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens @BlocQuebecois Notably, the Liberals who have been doing better with women and not so well with me, have had a bit of a bizarro week, giving up support with women of all ages, picking up some with men of all ages: #elxn43

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens @BlocQuebecois Despite (w/apologies to anti-pipeline folks)😉the oil-on-water spread of the left that no party has managed to consolidate , @JustinTrudeau still leads narrowly on the key question of who would make best PM... because left-leaners still pick him over @AndrewScheer

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens @BlocQuebecois BUT that doesn't mean they 💞💞him... or frankly any main party leader... overall, these favourability numbers are kind of dismal #elxn43

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens @BlocQuebecois That said, if there is one party leader who continues to pick up momentum, it's @theJagmeetSingh ... maybe that's why the party is sitting on an opportunity among uncommitted voters as a universal second choice #elxn43

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens @BlocQuebecois @theJagmeetSingh So that's the latest read of the electorate with a debate tomorrow night and 3 weeks to go in #elxn43. Mull it over with a nice 🍷 or maybe just a ☕️. Share with your friends, 'cuz that's a caring thing to do.

@CPC_HQ @liberal_party @AndrewScheer @JustinTrudeau @NDP @CanadianGreens @BlocQuebecois @theJagmeetSingh You can read the full report, dig into the data tables, review the q'aire, and learn more about the methodology here: angusreid.org/election-2019-…

Hat tip to my fabulous, hardworking wonderful colleagues at @angusreidorg

As always, thank you for following along. Kurl out.

#elxn43