Thread by @ShachiKurl

Good Day! Do follow along and I walk you through @angusreidorg's first look at #elxn43 vote intent since the #TrudeauBlackface scandal

@angusreidorg So we are literally just out of field. Here's the link to the full report: angusreid.org/election-2019-… #elxn43

@angusreidorg Here's the vote universe on Sept 23. no doubt Trudeau's
blackface shame has darkened Liberal prospects, but CPC support remains static: #elxn43

@angusreidorg Where has the Liberal vote gone? Both the NDP and Greens see a slight uptick in support at the expense of the LPC #elxn43

@angusreidorg At first glance it doesn't look like much right? Libs 3 points off where they were. But it's where those votes are being lost, and with whom, that bears further digging...

@angusreidorg Here's the regional picture. Liberal declines happening in one place where it really matters, (QC -6) and one place where it doesn't matter at all (AB-8). Battleground ON, BC, no significant movement. #elxn43

@angusreidorg Now let's look at this another way: by key age and gender demos. The Liberals under #PMJT have traditionally done well with younger voters but they are MAD at him/LPC #elxn43

@angusreidorg Something that really stands out- the events of the last week have re-coalesced vote retention for @NDP and @CanadianGreens #elxn43

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens Now to questions of momentum. A Momentum score is the # of ppl whose view of the leader has improved less worsened. Just look at where @JustinTrudeau is relative to @AndrewScheer, @theJagmeetSingh etc. #elxn43

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens @JustinTrudeau @AndrewScheer @theJagmeetSingh You'll note that @theJagmeetSingh is the only national party leader with positive momentum. Again, it comes down to those young voters who aren't only mad at @JustinTrudeau but giving props to NDP leader. #elxn43

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens @JustinTrudeau @AndrewScheer @theJagmeetSingh OK, so that's the BAD news for @JustinTrudeau and the @liberal_party. But there are plenty of indicators they could survive this.... #elxn43 ...

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens @JustinTrudeau @AndrewScheer @theJagmeetSingh @liberal_party First, as noted, the @CPC_HQ and @AndrewScheer have seen NO bump as a result of the scandal and ensuing chaos. Remember, from the beginning of this campaign, it has been a contest between two parties - them and the LPC. #elxn43

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens @JustinTrudeau @AndrewScheer @theJagmeetSingh @liberal_party @CPC_HQ Also, it's not really anything to cheer about, but @JustinTrudeau's approval numbers, already pretty bad, have not deteriorated further:

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens @JustinTrudeau @AndrewScheer @theJagmeetSingh @liberal_party @CPC_HQ Here's another telling indicator as to why, despite Trudeau severely damaging his brand as a tolerant, inclusive, respectful politician, he's not cooked yet. On the head-to-head q of who would make best PM, @JustinTrudeau & @AndrewScheer remain statistically tied #elxn43

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens @JustinTrudeau @AndrewScheer @theJagmeetSingh @liberal_party @CPC_HQ Now I want to talk about another factor in this scandal, I am going to get just a wee bit personal here...

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens @JustinTrudeau @AndrewScheer @theJagmeetSingh @liberal_party @CPC_HQ In the hours after the #TrudeauBlackface scandal broke, some reporters wanted me to weigh in on how visible minorities were reacting...

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens @JustinTrudeau @AndrewScheer @theJagmeetSingh @liberal_party @CPC_HQ So, yes, I am a person of colour, but I am a data person first. My response was that a) minority groups aren't monoliths, they aren't all going to react the same way and b) let's wait for the data. Now we have the data!

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens @JustinTrudeau @AndrewScheer @theJagmeetSingh @liberal_party @CPC_HQ Here's a comparison of how Canadian voters who self-identify as visible minorities told us they were voting last week, compared to today... as you can see, it's *hardly* damaged @liberal_party vote intent... let's see if that holds. #elxn43

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens @JustinTrudeau @AndrewScheer @theJagmeetSingh @liberal_party @CPC_HQ So that's where we stand five days after #TrudeauBlackface. Some short term conclusions:

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens @JustinTrudeau @AndrewScheer @theJagmeetSingh @liberal_party @CPC_HQ 1) This isn't yet fatal to @JustinTrudeau

BUT

2) Watch those young'uns! Trudeau's pain is Singh's gain

BUT

3) Watch those old'uns! CPC got no bounce but his base WILL show up. Those vacillating between LPC/NDP/Greens are still a question mark on turnout

#elxn43

@angusreidorg @NDP @CanadianGreens @JustinTrudeau @AndrewScheer @theJagmeetSingh @liberal_party @CPC_HQ That's all from me today.

Thanks as always for following along. Remember, you can read the whole report, see the q'aire, and dig into the detailed tables here: angusreid.org/election-2019-…

Kurl out.

#elxn43