Thread by @Trinhnomics

Good morning 👹- rather light data day for Asia. Overnight, markets were spooked by slowing ADP (private sector employment in the US) & tariffs (Airbus ✈️, cheese 🧀, wine 🍷) & generally underwhelming economic data globally. Let's look at details of ADP: September 135k from 157k

If u look at the decomposition of ADP - u see that most jobs are in service providing sectors (goods production is low). By sector, goods producing positive but it's the services that slowed 127k from 146k.

By firm size, LARGE firms rose to 67k from 39 & SMEs that declined 👇🏻

By services, trade & transport ROSE & the decline comes from education, healthcare, professional/technical & LEISURE! Interesting. Seasonal? Seems like the data is seasonally adjusted but it's very volatile as u can see that volatility is rather high 👇🏻👇🏻

Wut to do w/ high vol?

You can try to smooth it by taking a 3-month moving average & it looks like this (blue dashed line is monthly data & orange is a 3-month moving average). It basically smooths out volatility to see trend.

👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

Markets are eyeing US data tonight (non-manufacturing ISM & durable goods). Both are very key as they are drivers of the US economy (non-ISM more key than manu). For Asia, key is India's central bank decision tomorrow. The RBI will cut - the question is the magnitude not whether.

Singapore Markit PMI for the whole economy shows further contraction to 48.3 from 48.7 - means the SGD is likely to be allowed to weaken (Singapore has a massive current account surplus so the SGD is a policy-driven move) to help absorb some of the shock of weak global demand 🇸🇬