Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #spx

Most recents (24)

I've been saying this since March 2022.

#Bitcoin has been following the small cap indexes such as #IWM and #Russell2000 very closely since September 2021.
They are the first ones to get hit.

Large caps #SPX #QQQ got hit later.

🧵/1

That remains true all the way to today.

#SPX correction is lagging behind and is playing catch-up with correction.

When influencers ask why #Bitcoin is holding better than #SPX and #NDX #NASDAQ, this is why.

🧵/2
Small caps are way oversold at ridiculously low valuation historically. A P/E of 12! Are you kidding me?

If small caps #IWM and #Bitcoin are correlated, and if #IWM valuation will normalize back to higher valuation, #BTC rises.

🧵/3
Read 5 tweets
FX: 🇨🇳🇯🇵🇺🇸 Cross Asset Tie-Ins (thread)

Meltdowns in #SPX #NASDAQ $LUNA $UST #BTC & some commods (metals)
&
Buying in 🇺🇸Treasuries (“USTs” from here forward, not ref to Luna $UST) & JPY, as 🇺🇸CPI again↑

👆Each of above have their own story- but just to show charts on CNY JPY👇
1/
First just note April 20th (marked as red line on charts below). This date/event was the last time 🇯🇵JGBs were (perceived by some to be) “freely” traded- as in, no pre announce by BOJ to cap yields

Post 4/20 BOJ cap yields “forever”
& this is when things changed cross asset👇
2/
By removing day to day “will/won’t they” uncertainty BOJ (knowingly/not) shifted relentless & historic 🇯🇵¥ selling → 🇨🇳yuan selling

& yuan selling since 4/20 has been alarmingly sudden & sharp, w/ global cross asset market impact Image
Read 10 tweets
Has the S&P500 topped? I don't think so.

Long term fib channel and EWT count shows we are not done yet. Expect the market to top at the upper boundary of the channel.

#SP500 #SPX

🧵1/
Short term rejection from the 88.6% fib and upper trendline.

78.6% fib and 4000 psychological support just below current price. Further downside, if there is any, should be held there, not withstanding wicks.

#SP500 #SPX

🧵2/
It's about a 50% climb to the top of the fib channel, line in red, ~6200; which is a little more than a 61.8% extension for wave 5.

Top target range is 5600-6200.

#SP500 #SPX

🧵3/
Read 3 tweets
1/ #BITCOIN AND #SP500

THE NEXT MONTHS WILL BE BULLISH.

HERE'S WHY. 👇

#CRYPTO #BTC #SPX
2/ THE 1935-1970 PERIOD OF THE #SP500 DETERMINES A PATTERN THAT REPEATS ITSELF FROM 1995 TO TODAY.

TOP-BREAKDOWN-PULLBACK-BOTTOM-RISE-REJECTIONS-BREAKOUT-THROWBACK.

WE ARE CURRENTLY AT THE THROWBACK.

THE CONTINUATION OF THIS PATTERN IS A SERIES OF BULLISH BOUNCES (RETESTS).
3/ MANY OF THE #SP500 INDICATORS HELP DETERMINE HISTORICAL #BTC BOTTOMS. (SEE FOLLOWING ANALYSIS)

NOW AS THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS SHOWS, #SPX WILL PROBABLY BE BULLISH IN THE NEXT MONTHS.

BITCOIN WILL THEREFORE FOLLOW THIS MOMENTUM AND WILL ALSO BE BULLISH.
Read 5 tweets
Uzun vadede her zaman kazanan olmak çok basittir. Bir tutam mantık ve birazcık bilgi yeterlidir.

Nasıl mı?
Buyrun anlatıyorum:👇

RT+FAV yaparak bu bilgiseli bir çok dostumuza ulaştırabilirsiniz.

#Bitcoin #fed #nasdaq #spx #dolar
Bu görüntüyü iyi inceleyiniz. Görüntüde SPX vardır. Yani A.B.D.'nin en değerli 500 şirketinin ortalamasıdır.

Görüntüde 1987 yılından bu güne 4 defa büyük düşüş olmuş. O düşüşü değerlendirenler devamındaki 5-10 yıllık periyotta muazzam kazanmışlar.
Niye herkes dibi toplamadı? Neden herkes tepeden aldı? Neden çoğunluk zarara girdi? Niye çok insan kâr edebildi.

Çünkü borsa, kitlelerin psikolojisinin grafiğe yansımış hali gibidir.

Gerek makro gerek kişisel sebeplerle insanlar tepeyi almaya, dibi toplamaktan kaçmaya yatkındır
Read 10 tweets
1/ In this thread we show how S&P500 indicators have accurately determined the set of #Bitcoin bottoms throughout its history.

There is no certainty in trading, but the odds that this right detection continuing is over 80%.

This work shows that the last #BTC bottom is recent.
2/ The Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500), $SPX, is a stock market index tracking the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States.

It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices.

Market cap : US$42.4 trillion.
3/ BTC's bottoms detection using the 2W-Stochastic RSI K-line of the S&P500.
Read 13 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review - 04/03/2022

1/13

Why is #Quad4 consensus for Q2?

Because everyone KNOWS that both growth and inflation are “un-comp-able” vs Q2 2021

And right on cue, #Quad4 deflationary signals appeared this week ⚠️
2/13

Important note on trade (t) and Trend (T) this week

t = trade = 1-mo price change is comping against the March 7 commodity peak

T = Trend = 3-mo price change in comping against the #SPX ATH
3/13

The UST curve went from 🥞 to 🙃 as the 2Y ↗️ +18 BPS and the 10Y ↘️ -10 BPS to #inversion -7.2 BPS

Chart: 10/2s curve
Read 21 tweets
When real consumer goods spending has driven 50% of GDP growth post-pandemic, we should expect the message from the yield curve, that peaked in April of 2021, to agree with that of consumer discretionary stocks. Markets have been pricing slowing growth for a year now. 1/x
#SPX
That was evident in growth stocks leading following the peak in the yield curve in Apr. ‘21. But then in October, STIR futures began selling off as Fed turned aggressive as short-end BEI made new highs and the appeal of growth stocks faded, while defensive stocks shined. 2/x
The question now is whether the outperformance of growth stocks of the last two weeks tells us something new about the growth path of the economy and whether we should bet on them rather than on defensives. 3/x
Read 5 tweets
(1/x) Consumer spending has been running significantly above trend. As this growth was driven by govt. transfers and a shutdown in services, it looks non-recurring and prone to mean-revert as the pandemic wanes. But what would that look like?
#SPX #consumer
(2/x) Consumer expectations for year-ahead spending growth from the FRBNY’s Survey of Consumer Expectations seem a good prognosticator of realized goods spending growth. The two are highly-anticorrelated.
(3/x) In other words, consumers have been whipsawed by the policy response to Covid, and that helps think about the path ahead for spending. Expectations from the most-conservative households have had more predictive power, although not sure why.
Read 5 tweets
Eğitim bilgiseli 4: Basit finansal okur yazarlık ve #Bitcoin ile diğer ürünler arasındaki korelasyonlar.

Bilgi paylaşıldıkça bereketlenir
RT+FAV unutmayalım dostlarım.
DXY, #altın , #FED, hisseler, Faiz arttırımı, tahviller, o bu şu derken finansal terimler uzaktan bakana anlamsız gibi görünüyor.

Bunlar nedir ve neden sadece #Bitcoin mum grafiği yerine ek olarak bunlar da takip edilmeli?
Şimdi öncelikle piyasadaki tarafları bilmek gerek.

Bunlar Hisseler, Tahviller, #Altın ve #Emtialar, #Dolar, #Bitcoin vb. #kripto paralardır.

Neticede sonsuz para yok. Bu yüzden hepsi beraber sonsuza kadar yükselmez. Para sürekli duruma göre birinden diğerine akar.
Read 19 tweets
#SPX
If you have any doubts about planetary cycles effecting or correlating with Stocks or Assets of any sort, look no further.
Here is an example of the Saturn/Uranus cycle I warned about a yr ago.
1st chart Jupiter/Saturn 20yr cycle, notice the correlation to price movements. Image
Well!

You might be asking, why is price going up at the end if planets are dropping, doesn't work does it, WRONG!

Look closely at this next chart, we now look at Uranus which takes 84 yrs to orbit the Sun. Uranus/Saturn Cycles are 45 & 90 yr cycles, matches price perfectly. Image
It is for these reasons why I warned about a crash over a yr ago privately and 9 months ago here on twitter. Good luck and trade safe! 👍

Read 3 tweets
As violent tragedy unfolds in Ukraine, what may appear as a relative lack of #market reaction in the U.S. belies the great uncertainty, lack of conviction and anemic #TradingLiquidity across #markets today.
Indeed, only six times in the last 10 years has top-of-book #liquidity on the #SPX been as low as it has been recently.
Additionally, we have been witnessing remarkable daily ranges in the #SPX, comparable to only a handful of major periods/events over the past dozen years.
Read 5 tweets
🔗 Dünya piyasalarında küresel kriz, ekonomik gerilemelerin çok öncesinden analiz edebilmek, spekülasyonda bulunabilmek adına neleri takip edebiliriz?

Gelin birlikte bakalım.

#SPX #DJI #Bitcoin Image
▫️ Öncelikle "Küresel Kriz" kavramına detaylı olarak inmek istiyorum,

Çıkış yeri dünyanın herhangi bir ülkesi ya da bölgesi olan ve tüm dünyayı yakından etkileyen krize küresel kriz denir.
▫️ Birçok ülkenin ekonomisini doğrudan etkileyen küresel kriz büyük çapta hasarlara yol açabilir. Örneğin; 2008’de Amerika’ da meydana gelen küresel kriz dünya ekonomisini etkisi altına aldı ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler bu krizden oldukça etkilendi.
Read 16 tweets
1/atm straddles came down significantly from the open as nothing has rly happened in $spy #SPX since open but premium destruction. The play was to short overnight but this account can't do that. Expect more volatility as $vix expiration this week..
2/ $vix showing no real signs of panic, fear, or backwardation (bullish). The curve is in contango and suggests this 3-day down move has been a healthy shakeout. We keep a long-bias here but it has been smart to not be aggressive as OpEx just passed and VIXperation lies ahead
3/ We still seek to protect the last 3 weeks of profit. Given the significance of overnight moves recently, my hunch tells me this is mostly dealer-driven. For this same reason, it's a gamble to hold overnight risk without any ability to hedge in futures so we are wary of that.
Read 6 tweets
The imminent default of #Evergrande and the hawkish tilt of #Fed is sparking a global risk off event. This has similarities to all 3 of the last major crashes; 97 (LTCM - leverage), 2000 (tech - overvaluation), and 2008 (real estate - highly rated assets defaulting) #QQQ 1/9
97 started with the currency crisis of Thailand, a small economically unimportant country but set off a chain of currency crisis and defaults in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Argentina & Russia. Culminating in the collapse of the massively over-leveraged LTCM
#QQQ #BTC #SPY 2/9
It started small and took significant time (1 yr) to fully play out, feeding on the most overexposed and over leveraged investors. I expect it to play out much faster this time as we are starting with the 2nd largest economy, and the debt levels are significantly higher
#ETH 3/9
Read 13 tweets
#spx #spy the last hurrah Image
Update on #spx #spy

This has been a plan of mine for a while. Definitely worth being cautious around this area. Has potential to develop into a macro top very quickly and many would be offside. Have a plan if it happens, will not have long to act. Image
First #spx #spy short bought @ 4713. Time to execute the plan Image
Read 17 tweets
1/Thanks to @steve_sedgwick and @cnbcKaren for having me on @CNBC #SquawkBox this morning.

We talked about - what else? - #inflation and #centralbanks and whether the #Fed & peers are 'making an historic mistake', in Steve's words.

A few charts & comments for background:-
2/It's trite to say the jump in price indices is *all* attributable to a 'basis effect' when they've accelerated so much THIS year.
3/ #JeromePowell and his merry band may wish to believe that the rise is a mere blip, but all too many businessmen & women (i.e., the people who *really* matter) seem to believe the converse is the case.
Read 10 tweets
Great conversation with @MerrillLynch CIO Chris Hyzy, as part of their #MerrillPerspectives event. Some of the topics we discuss follow and the full conversation can be accessed here: ml.com/2021-midyear-e…
On the #market lessons stemming from the pandemic, I suggested that- stepping back- while a lot has been thrown at the #economy and markets over the past 30 years, in every case the #policy response has been critical to evaluate in judging the ultimate impact: policy matters!
That said, we think there is an overestimation of the importance of exceedingly low #policy rate levels to the recovery but maintaining the stability and #liquidity of the financing #markets is critical, particularly at the top end of the capital stack.
Read 10 tweets
Thanks to @steve_sedgwick & @cnbcKaren for having me on #CNBC #SquawkBox this AM.

What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!

I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
1/n
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE
Are people in denial or is the #centralbank money flood just drowning all the signals?
2/n
#inflation
#Commodities, #freight, #carbon - and a whole lot besides - sure do cost a lot more, these days.
3/n
Read 14 tweets
Avg holding period is below 1 year and most of returns come from price action so one could argue that capital gain tax increase 20->50% makes stocks 60% more expensive.

Add corp tax increase that'll eat chunk of earnings and multiply all by already highest valuations ever.
#SPX
Don't know if historically lower/negative GDP growth in periods with higher capital gains tax is coincidence or not, but basic logic would agree that there is less incentive to invest with higher taxes.
According to this chart one could notice that realized gains (as % GDP) tend to rise before an increase and after a decrease in max tax rate on LT gains.
Read 4 tweets
@hussmanjp Majority (according to BofA) thinks we are in a late stage bull or in a bubble. So, guess they are aware. The problem is there's no timing tool for this kind of greedy psychology trying to sqeeze every possible index point till the top no matter the exponentially increasing risk.
@hussmanjp It seems the probability of a top beeing in or beeing away for another 3 months is pretty much the same.

Actually, if we consider today's SPAC mania to be comparable to '00s tech mania, and compare the movement of SPAC index to NDX, topping could take another 3 months or so...
@hussmanjp Like #NDX topped earlier in 00 than the #SPX, #SPACs could top earlier than $NDX today, with 2nd leg in SPACS being the real deal on major indices.
Recent absorption of institutional selling by retail and yesterday's strong relative up volume make me consider adjusting timing
Read 3 tweets
While our February 18th monthly client call argument for rising #RealRates appeared prescient, we were surprised by the magnitude of last week’s #move and would expect a more benign evolution toward #equilibrium going forward.
Taking a stab at periodizing the past year: 1) in Feb/Mar 2020 the Covid crisis was priced into #markets, real #rates spiked higher, #inflation breakevens collapsed and #investors scrambled to raise #cash as the #SPX experienced its fastest 30% drawdown in history.
Then, 2) from Apr through Oct 2020 we witnessed the #market impact of monumental #monetary and #fiscal policy responses to the #crisis, as policymakers successfully sought to force #real rates down and restore #inflation expectations.
Read 10 tweets
#stockmarket WE update - finally saw some nastiness on Fri w/ some fairly big moves in individual stks. could this be the start of something bigger? as discussed in last WE posts, we are set up for it but will it happen? #SPX held the 20day again. 3720/3660 next lvls to watch...
#stockmarket Demark propulsion up tgt still active w/ 3907 tgt but stuck on 10 count for the seq 13 sell since Jan 8th. still could post this wk as early as weds....
#StockMarket #nasdaq did record a Demark 13 sell & came w/in 20 points of the Propulsion up tgt (something I wrote about last WE as a possible sell trigger). the 13 sell that printed on 1/14 is now the swing high. currently on day 2 of a price flip...
Read 19 tweets

Related hashtags

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!