Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #spx

Most recents (24)

NEXT WEEK

The Bear's take:

•Unresolved Debt ceiling
•Friday's negative day and bearish candlesticks
• Several neg. divergences
•Leading stocks reversed
#VVIX bullish engulfing candle and #VIX1D daily higher highs higher lows points to more vol ahead
•GDP maybe ↓

$SPX
NEXT WEEK

The Bull's take

• Indices up week on high volume
•Buy the dip: Bullish action
•Volatility indicators are subdued
• $NDX, $FAANG, $SMH in good health
• $SPX, $NDX higher highs and higher lows
•Market broke out above resistance
•Breadth thrust last Wednesday
#SPX
NEXT WEEK

Our take

•Debt ceiling will be solved
#PCE will come lower
#GDP will be OK
•Breakout zone is likely to be retested this week
•Price is firmly in positive Gamma
•We remain cautious due to still internal market weakness

#ES_F #Options #Trading $SPY #SPX $SPX
Read 5 tweets
Rising volume in $XLK, $VTV, and good enough $SMH transparently prepared the ground for improving #ES market breadth – but the one factor that made me reconsider the requisites of the medium-term (bearish) outlook, was this.
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
2. Back when I took the MT bearish view (mid Mar), it was well justified as two significant #banks had fallen, $CS was getting back on the radar screen, #deposit outflows continued, and demand for the #Fed emergency programs was rising.
It was questionable whether $KRE and $XLF
3. would stabilize.
The incentives for #deposit outflows were still present (#Fed hadn‘t yielded to market pressures to ease, and still doesn‘t, short-term #yields kept solidly above 5%, #Fed balance sheet kept declining, #M2 and #margin debt shrinking while consumer #inflation
Read 17 tweets
#ES flirted with 4,115 again after that great intraday $HYG reversal portended downside #volatility when cyclicals didn‘t really point higher.
The day ended with a profound deterioration in market breadth and unappealing sectoral overview.
THREAD 👇 ImageImage
2. #tech upswing invited selling interest, while #value and especially $IWM turned strongly south.
#ES though had been relatively resilient given both #manufacturing and #retailsales hits, and today‘s data in #housing weren‘t slated to bring a disaster.
The figures are
3. obviously more optimistic than they would have otherwise been if the #housing market could clear itself by bringing in more supply, which isn‘t though a realistic expectation when #mortgage rates have been locked low in a different era of 2020-2021.
Read 6 tweets
공부하며 알게된 사실

1. 비트코인은 반감기보단 매크로에 따라 움직였다

2. 역사상 비트코인 반감기는 선거시기 , 매크로회복 시기와 맞물렸다

3. 이번 매크로 회복은 최소 2년 이상 걸릴것이다(core cpi 년간 1프로씩 떨어지는중)

4. 금리인상이 멈추면 단기랠리가 나왔다

#bitcoin #macro
5. 금리를 인하시엔 오히려 폭락장이 왔다

6. 신용경색이 일으킬 나비효과는 아직 나오지 않은 상황이다

7. 영구 실업률을 발표하지 않고 실업수당 발표를 하는건 아이러니하다

8. 그럼에도 불구하고 실업수당청구치는 최저에서 고개를 드는중
9. 생산자 물가상승률이 떨어진다고해서 물가가 낮아진것은 아니다. 고공에서 멈춰있는것

10. 저금리로 실적없이 먹고살던 좀비회사가 갈수록 상환기일이 다가오고있다

11. 제조업 수련자들의 노동시간이 줄어드는중이다
Read 9 tweets
What to join my free private Twitter that goes over #ES_F #SPX and $SPY when requested?

Then all I ask, is that you take the time to complete the 2 very simple tasks below.
Task # 1 - click on @StoughtonCharts and follow it Image
Task #2 - once you have a follow pending, message me here on @Matt_Stoughton. Image
Read 4 tweets
📊 Market Analysis Time...

Reviewing:
- Bitcoin
- SPX
- DXY
- US 10 Year Bond Yields

A thread....
1/5
#Bitcoin has been neatly following my calls from November broken down on my YouTube.

Currently, per this analysis I sent last week, I still think we're headed to 32K liquidations.

Notice the more time we spent here, the more people flipped bearish / became fearful. Image
#SPX The weekly chart has accumulated. Buyside liquidity is ready for grabs at 4412.00

All we need is a catalyst to precipitate the run up, what is that?

Sell In May.

Sell In May is what will fuel this move up. All of retail will be shorting, setting the stage for an expansion Image
Read 5 tweets
🚨 #FOMC Trade Thread 🚨

How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX

THIS STRATEGY IS 96.1% ACCURATE PAST 26 FOMC’S (Only One Non-Event Move) 👇

Please ❤️ & ♻️
This strategy has made 60-140+ POINT MOVES in $SPX which equates to around $5-$15 Moves in $SPY ITSELF!

There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
HOW TO TRADE #FOMC

You FADE the INITIAL REACTION on $SPY at 2PM EST once the Rates are given out and you PLAY the opposite when Powell Speaks at 2:30PM EST.

Example: If initially the market falls at 2PM you would go long at 2:25-2:35 once he starts to speak &this can be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 12 tweets
🚨 #FOMC Trade Thread 🚨

How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX

THIS STRATEGY IS 96.1% ACCURATE PAST 26 FOMC’S (Only One Non-Event Move) 💰

Please ❤️ & ♻️ 👇🏼
This strategy has made 60-140+ POINT MOVES in $SPX which equates to around $5-$15 Moves in $SPY ITSELF!

There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
👇🏼HOW TO TRADE #FOMC 👇🏼

You FADE the INITIAL REACTION on $SPY at 2PM EST once the Rates are given out and you PLAY the opposite when Powell Speaks at 2:30PM EST.

Example: If initially the market falls at 2PM you would go long at 2:25-2:35 once he starts to speak &this can be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 9 tweets
#MarketReport 2023/04

1) In this thread, I'll cover comparative performance of

📌 #Stock Indices
📌 #Exchange Rates
📌 Treasury #Bills and Government #Bonds

both for April and since pandemic. Image
2) #StockMarkets

MoM returns in April, at their own currency:

➡️ #SPX #IXIC #DJI #DAX #NI225 #XU100 Image
3) #StockMarkets

MoM returns in April, based on USD:

➡️ #SPX #IXIC #DJI #DAX #NI225 #XU100 Image
Read 10 tweets
NEXT WEEK

The Bear's take:

•Monthly close on lighter volume
•Negative divergences from classic indicators
•Tough talk from FEDs
•Inflation is sticky, rates ↑
#Recession is here
#GDP
•Leading indicators ↓
#AAPL earnings ↓
•Big #Gamma at 4000

$SPX #SPX
NEXT WEEK

The Bull's take

#SPX printed back-to-back Marubozu candlesticks
•Green week with higher volume
•Green month with candlestick body above the previous one
•Return to positive #Gamma regime
•Buy the dip: Bullish price action
•Breadth improvement

#ES_F $SPY $ES_F
NEXT WEEK

Our take

• +Open on Sunday, and eventually on Monday; possible mid-session/afternoon pullback, close near flat
•Market to move ↑ or slightly ↓ ahead of FOMC
-•#Semis will improve pushing↑
#SPX to hit 4195
#FOMC: shake out/not kill current ↑trend

#ES_F
Read 4 tweets
NEXT WEEK

The Bear's take:

•Upward momentum is lost
•Negative divergences and sell signals from classic indicators
•Big weekly bullish enfulfing candle on $VVIX
•Weekly bearish haramis on major indices
•Inflation is sticky, higher rates coming
#Recession is here

#ES_F
NEXT WEEK

The Bull's take

•Major indices printed weekly higher lows and higher highs
• $VIX continues in strong downtrend
• Leading stocks holding support
•Dealers are holding net long positions
•Positive Gamma regime
•Buy the dip: Bullish price action

#ES_F #SPX $SPY
NEXT WEEK

Our take

•The market will stay in the current range (4100/4160) through Tuesday
•Nothing has broken yet, we remain cautiously bullish, but moving up our flip levels (↑↓)
•Earnings will help float the market, but could be mixed

#ES_F #SPX $SPX #options $SPY
Read 4 tweets
A longer 🧵today to explain what we saw. This analysis is using tick-level OPRA data vs. a heuristics-based RT OI estimate currently on our feed. We will look to roll this out soon.

Day started normally, with LG at 4100. Image
However, by 10:30, we saw some very interesting behaviour. Specifically, we saw #0DTE bulls acting very aggressive, including selling ATM puts at 4120 strike. Image
By noon, we could tell they were now targeting 4125 and 4130 strikes on their calls. Image
Read 6 tweets
Choroba niestety nie odpuszcza.

Dzisiaj za dużo nie stworzę ale szybkie podsumowanie wykresów do kawusi 👇 #DXY #SPX #BTC #ETH 👇

Pamiętajcie, że najważniejsze to zacząć tydzień z dobry nastawieniem 🙃

1/🧵
2/🧵 #DXY - index #Dolar'a

Wybronione wsparcie, wyższy dołek dla mnie pierwszy cel to okolice 107,8. Będzie to 0.5 FIBO całego ruchu spadkowego i zobaczymy co dalej. Naturalnie mocniejszy Dolar powinien pociągnąć rynek w dół.
3/🧵 #SPX

W piątek Byki silnie zakończyły kwartał, znaczne wybicie ponad #GAP. Traktuje to jako wyjście z gotówki przed zamknięciem kwartału, teraz spodziewam się redukcji pozycji #LONG.
Wsparcie 3980. Jeśli będzie kontynuowany UP to silny opór mamy w okolicach 4220.
Read 6 tweets
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here

For more info read our newsletter

The new issue will be out in the morning before the open

Stay ahead, subscribe for Free

pointblanktrading.substack.com

#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures
@UnrollHelper
NEXT WEEK

The Bear's take:

•Market is in decreasing weekly volume
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
•Valuations are high
#Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind

#ES_F #SPX
NEXT WEEK

The Bull's take

•Bullish daily, weekly and monthly candles
•Momentum is up
•Tech is leading
•Sucessful retest of breakout zones
#NDX made new higher low and higher high
#SPX made new higher low

#ES_F #SPX $SPY $SPX #trading
Read 6 tweets
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here

For more info read our newsletter

The new issue will be out tomorrow before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free

pointblanktrading.substack.com

#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures $Gamma
@UnrollHelper
NEXT WEEK

The Bear's take:
•Market is up in decreasing weekly volume
•Market is overbought
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
#Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind

#ES_F #SPX
NEXT WEEK

The Bull's take

•Bullish daily, weekly and monthly candles
•Momentum is up
•Tech is leading
•Sucessful retest of breakout zones
#NDX made new higher low and higher high
#SPX made new higher low

#ES_F #SPX $SPY $SPX #trading
Read 5 tweets
🗓️ 2020 - 2021 - 2022 + 2023/Q1 Returns

1) #SPX

S&P 500 Endeksinin geçen 3 yıldaki ve bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki getirileri
2) #IXIC

#Nasdaq Endeksinin geçen 3 yıldaki ve bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki getirileri.
3) #DAX

#DAX Endeksinin geçen 3 yıldaki ve bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki getirileri.
Read 9 tweets
#ChartStorm: 1/17
🗓️ March Performance of ...

🇺🇸 #SPX #IXIC #DJI 🇯🇵 #NI225 🇩🇪 #DAX 🇹🇷 #XU100

#DXY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #CADUSD #JPYUSD #TRYUSD

#TreasuryBills #GovernmentBonds #Yields
2) Here I'll cover 6 stock market indices in 4 countries:

In order to compare the relative performances, I've chosen a pre-pandemic basis, which is 31/12/2019 closing values.

As Nasdaq, S&P500 and DJI are denominated in US dollars, but the others not, returns are misleading.
3) I have adjusted the data, and now all are denominated in US dollars.

#BIST returns are still amazing with its 30.4%, but not striking as above. Besides it is positive only after Sep'22. #Nasdaq is leading with 36.2% return. #Nikkei225 is the only index below pandemic level.
Read 17 tweets
@dampedspring It may be a bit more than $3B Andy.

We're showing the following structure into the end-of week:

charts.gammaedge.us/charm_oi_3d_SP…

What we think matters on Friday is that ITM call component, as it will continue to push flows upward.
@dampedspring ... but into Friday, there is a significant net positive flow that could capture more ITM puts, forcing them to OTM and positive flow, as well as capturing more ITM calls.

charts.gammaedge.us/net_charm_oi_3…
@dampedspring What is most striking to us is the simple collapse of charm AFTER Friday.

The landscape for April is flat, relative to the charm surface of this week.

The contrast is quite evident.

✍️
Read 4 tweets
The anatomy of a successful $SPY trade in a choppy day like today:
A thread 🧵 #SPY #SPX
1a- Contextual understanding
#Macro level
I posted this last night. The rotation from tech to Financial sector was the intervening variable pushing spy & QQQ down. QQQ bottomed at $308 that's when $SPY started to move up:
1b- Knowing confluence levels, major points of interest, and support and resistance. I posted these last night for twitter super followers. Draw lines for yourself of price rejection and bounce for one week, the highs and the lows. Image
Read 6 tweets
Gold attempting to BREAKOUT of its second BIGGEST yearly defined base versus SPX.

Possible analog roadmaps with price & time targets.

8000$ in 2034
12000$ in 2033
21000$ in 2030

Overshoot on smaller time frames not included.

#gold #xauusd #spx #fintwit #inflation #recession
A couple of key observations.

You can't even see #gold's 2020 rally vs #spx, simply a wick, with a yearly close back below 0.50.

Also, note those extremely fast moves out of the gate, once yearly breakout is confirmed.
Major error on this #gold versus #spx chart...

I forgot the rocket ships!
Read 3 tweets
Somehow our pinned tweet disappeared, so here it is again

This is a thread with information we think valuable:

1) Our Compact Guide to Understanding #Gamma
2) $SPX $Gamma structure Cheat Sheet
3) Our Compact Guide to Options Strategies
4) 2023 Options Calendar... and more
🧵
Version 1.0 of the $SPX #Gamma structure cheat sheet.

Developed in partnership from
@TradeVolatility, great tools for great trades

#SPX #ES_F #options #Futures #trading #Daytrader #VIX #VVIX #Gamma $Gamma #GEX $GEX $SPX $SPY #SPY $QQQ #QQQ #NDX #NQ_F

Our Compact Guide to Options Strategies

According to the teachings of Sheldon Natemberg, 30 years Market Maker, Cboe Educator and author of the options Bible "Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques"

#SPX #ES_F #options #Futures #trading #VIX
Read 7 tweets
CYCLICALS vs DEFENSIVES:

Renowned investors like Stanley Druckenmiller routinely monitor the performance of Cyclicals vs Defensives as a signal for #stocks, $SPY and #macro economy.

At HQ, we use the following monitor (chart). Whats it telling us now? a 🧵
2/ Lets focus on whats happened, before future expectations

The top panel of the chart shows the relative performance of Cyclical sectors over Defensive sectors ("CDR")

Panel 2 is the #SPX

Panel 3 is the Z-score of the 13 week move in the CDR with 2 std dev movements marked...
3/ The final panel (4) shows the rolling cumulative performance of the CDR mapped against HQ's leading economic leading index ("HQLEI", rolling 13 week chg).

From mid '21, the HQLEI fell for the first time in a yr & this preceded the CDR peaking in Nov 21, signaled by...
Read 10 tweets
HedgQuarters S&P500 EPS Forecast Model Update:

1/ In Oct 22 we released our S&P 500 multi factor earnings forecast model based on data releases up to Sept 22. Now with 4-5 months more data we have updated the model and highlight the interesting changes

$SPY $QQQ #macro #stocks
2/ As always we present 2 scenarios. With variable lags to the impact of rate hikes, these models map out 2 assumption sets:

A. the impact on FUTURE EPS of the latest leading econ data, by extending current settings of leading indicators into the future unchanged "STATIC MODEL"
3/ B. "RECESSION MODEL": the impact on future EPS of both current econ data and a forecast assumption set that maps out a possible recession scenario in the US (assumptions at end)

These 2 models allow investors to assess (1) what a recession may look like to earnings and
Read 17 tweets
1/ While there is a lot of speculation about "what happened" as we moved into the late afternoon session, we think it's pretty clear.

There was a tremendous amount of ITM call delta in the #SPX that was vaporizing, either through monetization or through the expiry...
2/ Here is the #SPX delta structure at 2:20 pm ET, with a link for you to interact with:

charts.gammaedge.us/delta_oi_3d_SP…
3/ There is a significant amount of ITM call delta that is on the edge of that surface -- that's today's expiry.

Note the imbalance - little exists over on the put side of the graphic.

As many of you know, as we march through time, the ITM components grow...
Read 9 tweets

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