Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #spx

Most recents (24)

Another #tech bubble? There’s a lot of talk about the FANG mega-cap #growth companies leading the market, just like 2000. The #tech companies’ narrow leadership of the #SPX is a big reason perma-bears are hating on the #market. Right or wrong? Let’s take a closer look. (THREAD)
1/ In 1999 I did a deep dive on the top darling stocks to compare the lopsided leadership of the late 1990s to the early to mid-1970s. Earlier, during the 1960s, the cyclical #bullmarket from Oct. 1966 to Nov. 1968 produced a huge bubble in retail speculation.
2/ #Tech & space companies were big favorites. Then came the #recession of 1970 & a painful bear market that wiped out speculators. During that decline & recovery, institutional investors dominated the #stockmarket & were buying tried-and-true stocks with bulletproof #earnings.
Read 18 tweets
#StockMarket officially back from Vaca & back in the saddle. The call last week to fade $QQQ was the correct one. -5.7% peak to trough, & the argument for rotation pot'l also occurred. That said the mkt is stubbornly resilient and tough to be too bearish, yet i remain cautious:
#StockMarket $QQQ weekly ugly candle on elevated volume and last time we saw that happen, more weakness ensued. RSI continues to neg diverge & now threatening to break the RSI trend line. MACD neg divergence as well w/ recent lower high and neg cross again....
#stockmarket #SPX looks much better and arguably looks and feels like wants to break out. meaningful supply zone ahead to be aware of w/ a break higher of last wk high, w/ new tgts 3257 and Covid gap resistance of 3360. pot'l for SPX +MACD monthly cross soon = bullish MT....
Read 17 tweets
(THREAD) 1/ Is the market’s current valuation really as bad the Shiller CAPE suggests? In my view, the answer is no. Here’s why.
2/ This shows the Shiller CAPE, or the #SP500 price index, divided by the 10-yr avg for #earnings per share. At 27.0x, the #market is at the 92nd percentile of all history, with only the 1929 peak and the dot com bubble producing a higher valuation. Not good company.
3/ But, like a blunt instrument used for precision surgery, the CAPE falls short. It doesn’t take into account interest rates, the equity risk premium or the percentage of #earnings that are being distributed back to shareholders via dividends & share buybacks.
Read 15 tweets
(THREAD) Could the huge rally since March 23 be just a bear market rally? And how would we know? Let’s take a look at history—and some charts. #SP500 #SPX #stockmarket #investing
1/ Here we see that price (#SP500) and it confirms my view that, with the exception of 1929 and 1937, the power of the current rally strongly suggests that a new #bullmarket is underway.
2/ This chart shows the retracement of the preceding decline. The current retracement far exceeds the others, but I think that’s probably just a byproduct of the fact that we have only declined 35% so far, whereas some of the prior bear markets produced declines of 50%-90%. #SPX
Read 12 tweets
JF's Sunday Morning Charts - just few charts today... (see full thread inside) Happy Father's Day to All!!

#SPX Weekly - so far the PRZ for Leg C has held... a break <$2934 is first sign C may be done and Leg D starting.. and confirms on a break < $2792.
#GC_F Daily - Gold finally made a move on Friday and may reach Supply on a break > $1760.. setting up a possible short. However, a break < $1727 likely sends it back down to Demand.
$DXY Daily - looking poised for higher. A break >$98 and it's off to the races..
Read 8 tweets
🌎 As I repeated (bit.ly/2Vzbui8; bit.ly/2Ks0P2g; bit.ly/3awqL7l; bit.ly/3eMEWsn), economists have been too optimistic about global GDP prospects. Image
🇺🇸 #SPX | Analysts have been also too optimistic concerning earnings expectations (bit.ly/3bAcAj1).

🇺🇸 #SPX | Since the beginning of March, the S&P 500 Index’s 12-month forward earnings per share estimate has slumped 19% and is bound to deteriorate further as business and economic activity have slowed amid the coronavirus outbreak - Bloomberg Image
Read 8 tweets
$NFLX Esto es lo que veo desde el inicio de la corrida Bull (previo a este tuvo una baja del 70% aprox).

$SPX #SPX $NASDAQ #NASDAQ
$NFLX (parte alcista).
Inicia con gran verticalidad (linea de soporte) hasta q la rompe y sigue con canal alcista q se encuentra menos inclinado indicandome que va con menos fuerza.
Luego en los ultimos meses lo rompe y ahora lo esta queriendo retomar.

$SPX #SPX $NASDAQ #NASDAQ
$NFLX (parte lateral).
Ya en el top del canal vemos una lateralidad, llegando hasta a romper el canal, lo que indica agotamiento de los bulls.
Esta formando un triple techo, y o casualidad, los ultimos 2 candles son practicamente dojis muy poco alcistas

$SPX #SPX $NASDAQ #NASDAQ
Read 7 tweets
#Momentum leads #Value over the past 30 days, too.
In fact, #Momentum leads #Value on the downside as well, by not drawing down as much. I said last week momentum was positioned defensively. The rotations this time has helped on the downside.
Read 9 tweets
#mcmCharts

lets start with forward looking charts

I have been posting $BDI for quite sometime...and as you can see it has been an exceptional forward cue on changes in direction for $SPX - its not great for scale of move but rather TIME...

Trouble starts in Q2 based on this /1
have been presuming $SPX would left translate to the $VOL projections on this chart...but getting increased less optimistic about Jan/Feb left translation...

UNTRANSLATED this points to April/May/June - lets just call it mid May...which is essentially same thing $BDI implies /2
have to finish #mcmPanicEuphoiraIndex array chart BUT we have new 5 year highs in these emotional tools

AS YOU KNOW I RIGHTLY SUGGESTED in NOV...multi-year highs increase time/effort to balance NOW WE HAVE NEW CONFIRMATIONS - very skeptical of a quick topping process $SPX /3
Read 66 tweets
50+ chart #mcmCharts thread coming this weekend...interesting stuff

Will be adding to this thread over the weekend

How about the #AAIIBULLS... incredible
/1
Let’s take a look at the medium, long and very long term #SPX

Appears that major resistance area coming up - over the next 100 to 300 points

/2
Based on this scenario which I have not altered since I posted in in early summer...we are +/- 100 to 200 points from the top of wave B which would make the same expanded flat that has appeared at every top for the last 20 years

/3
Read 56 tweets
2/

Cognitive dissonance has people possessed with looking for 5 wave impulses...when all I see are zigzags and we need to finish this last zag to the upside $SPX
3/

$SPX Earnings
Read 31 tweets
#mcmcharts

1/

50+ important charts coming today and imo the picture is clearing up for the short-term

lets start with $AAPL
2/

monetary aggregates and unemployment - still have not turned #SPX #M1 #M2
3/

$NYSE internals are constructive and confirmed last equities highs which suggests that new highs are likely and that those have a possibility to be unconfirmed
Read 61 tweets
Some important charts coming this weekend

Keep this thread book marked will be updating it and adding charts into tomorrow

#mcmCharts

/1


Its just a freaking $SPX retest (on abysmal volume no less)
/2

WTF happened to the volume $SPX
3/

$SPX daily retest
Read 55 tweets
#mcmCharts

Let’s start with sentiment. #mcmPanicEuphoria and #mcmSentimentIndex

There are a lot of people talking about how there’s no chance of a big drop with people so negative/pessimistic...

THINK AGAIN

contrarianism for the sake of contrarianism is a fools game imo

/1
2/

How is a change in market regime and psychology visible? how about buybacks

DELEVERAGING & REAL LIQUIDATION has been happening in key structural areas that have held up valuations/risk assets - & this is not a trivial issue. BUYBACK ASSETS are getting absolutely liquidated
3/

Regime change or capitulation - BUYBACK performance is HORRENDOUS and markets can not return to real strength imo without them and especially need them in the context of HUGE USTR issuances coming up and QT

imo this is move from a 10 year BULL market to an emerging BEAR $SPX
Read 28 tweets
#CBOE #VIX #volatility index, also known as #WallStreet's "fear gauge" records biggest one-day spike in 10 months
MSCI’s All-Country World Index, which tracks #shares across 47 countries, fell for a six straight day on Monday - marking its longest losing streak this year.
Read 10 tweets
Rough structures #EURUSD and #GOLD since Feb 1st.
Additional infos iro #EURUSD vs #GOLD structure.
Both #gold and #eurusd exited the yellow trendline connecting high 2 to high 3🤔
Read 11 tweets
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *U.S. WAITING TO HEAR FROM #CHINA ON TRADE DEAL, KUDLOW SAYS - BBG
*KUDLOW EXPECTS U.S.-CHINA MEETING IN MARCH IN MAR-A-LAGO
*TRUMP, LIGHTHIZER ARE VERY CLOSE, KUDLOW TELLS CNBC
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #CHINA WOULD HAVE TO NOTE ANY FX INTERVENTION UNDER DEAL: KUDLOW - BBG
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *MNUCHIN SAYS #CHINA #TRADE TALKS INCLUDE 150-PAGE DOCUMENT - BBG
Read 819 tweets
RECESSION THREAD
1/ a lot of you see me post often that a recession is coming. I believe q1/q2 2020 it will happen and I will explain why it will happen then. However don’t expect 2008 unless student debt breaks the govt books (lol)
2/ back in the day when most of you were in high school, recessions came from negative gdp growth. The US hasn’t seen neg gdp in how long? And there’s a reason the #Fed won’t raise rates
3/ we live in an economy financed by debt. They raise the rates too high there won’t be any lending, and the economy will just explode. They won’t allow that to happen. It will be a slow bleed
Read 12 tweets
🇺🇸 #SPX (1) | Equities ⬆ significantly since Dec. lows with participants not taking into account:
1/ the global synchronised slowdown that should be associated with a global trade contraction (YoY) soon
2/ the likely earnings recession in U.S. (and 🇪🇺)
🇺🇸 #SPX (2) | The move can be partly explained by the dovish switch in CBs:
1/ #Fed makes a pause in ⬆ rates and should should stop ⬇ its BS by year-end
2/ #ECB is likely to delay its 1st rate ⬆ and will launch new TLTROs
3/ #BOJ is considering 4 options for extra easing
🇺🇸 #SPX (3) | This easing charge has significant repercussions on asset prices leading to a sharp ⬆ of bonds trading with negative yields (up 60% since Oct. according to a Bloomberg/Barclays index)

#TINA can also explain why investors have rushed into other risky assets
Read 10 tweets
1/

#mcm_chartstorm

Professionals have been piling into puts - this is the 10 day #OEX put/call ratio
2/

SELL EVERYTHING!

(this post is especially for @yuriymatso)
3/

Longer-term $TICK is on the zero line (though this calculation is deceptive as in OVERLY OPTIMISTIC - even an over-optimistic measure with inherent quantization is at signficant risk of a major breakdown)
Read 68 tweets
1/

Lets get this, what’ll probably be way more than 80 chart (yes possibly over 100 charts) #mcm_chartstorm going

Since most analysts (except a few great ones) we see on twitter appear to be copping out as mkt has risen, how much all this BULLISHNESS is really in the mkt? $SPX
2/

In the past we have discussed the epic internal/structural relationships between $NDX and $SPX in 2000 and $FAANGvs $SPX in 2019...lets take a look at that model again
3/

How lets take a look at how this model has played out since we posted it mid year last year...

$FAANG $FNG vs $SPX has followed the model extremely well, with one exception...the $FANG meltdown has been much worse structurally & nominally than the 2000 disaster.
Read 101 tweets
Let’s get this #mcm_chartstorm going

1/

Let’s start with the $INDU
2/

And $SPY $SPX have the same pattern & perfect symmetry BTW imo
3/

$SPHBI High Beta index made a perfect kiss of resistance
$SPX
Read 61 tweets
Well, this is not going to end well...

$VIX is trading at the LARGEST ever discount to its Realized Volatility reference calculation...

Corporate Credit is trading at the 2nd largest divergence to #SPX ever (other than Sept high)
Speaking of $VIX & $VXO check this out. $SPX is shown inverted in this chart & looks awfully bullish plus there is TONS of convergence at 2600
This is our proprietary Historical Volatility calculation that actually forecasts what value $VIX or $VXO should be - which in truth is quite different to 30 day realized volatility which is much too slow imo
Read 3 tweets
1/

Let’s get this #MCM_CHARTSTORM started.

There are a lot of charts. Will be updating the thread into tomorrow, so if you want to see the whole thing it will not be complete till tomorrow - keep checking back.

Will also prepare a THREADVIEWER version

Let’s start with $SPX
2/

Here is a better version of that $COMP & $SPX (gray) chart
3/

How about the $COMPQ Running Correction? Its coming right along and following perfectly as well as getting ready to soon pull the rug out from underneath buyers imo $SPX
Read 61 tweets

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