Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #spx
Most recents (24)
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Unresolved Debt ceiling
•Friday's negative day and bearish candlesticks
• Several neg. divergences
•Leading stocks reversed
• #VVIX bullish engulfing candle and #VIX1D daily higher highs higher lows points to more vol ahead
•GDP maybe ↓
$SPX
The Bear's take:
•Unresolved Debt ceiling
•Friday's negative day and bearish candlesticks
• Several neg. divergences
•Leading stocks reversed
• #VVIX bullish engulfing candle and #VIX1D daily higher highs higher lows points to more vol ahead
•GDP maybe ↓
$SPX
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
• Indices up week on high volume
•Buy the dip: Bullish action
•Volatility indicators are subdued
• $NDX, $FAANG, $SMH in good health
• $SPX, $NDX higher highs and higher lows
•Market broke out above resistance
•Breadth thrust last Wednesday
#SPX
The Bull's take
• Indices up week on high volume
•Buy the dip: Bullish action
•Volatility indicators are subdued
• $NDX, $FAANG, $SMH in good health
• $SPX, $NDX higher highs and higher lows
•Market broke out above resistance
•Breadth thrust last Wednesday
#SPX
Rising volume in $XLK, $VTV, and good enough $SMH transparently prepared the ground for improving #ES market breadth – but the one factor that made me reconsider the requisites of the medium-term (bearish) outlook, was this.
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
#ES flirted with 4,115 again after that great intraday $HYG reversal portended downside #volatility when cyclicals didn‘t really point higher.
The day ended with a profound deterioration in market breadth and unappealing sectoral overview.
THREAD 👇
The day ended with a profound deterioration in market breadth and unappealing sectoral overview.
THREAD 👇
2. #tech upswing invited selling interest, while #value and especially $IWM turned strongly south.
#ES though had been relatively resilient given both #manufacturing and #retailsales hits, and today‘s data in #housing weren‘t slated to bring a disaster.
The figures are
#ES though had been relatively resilient given both #manufacturing and #retailsales hits, and today‘s data in #housing weren‘t slated to bring a disaster.
The figures are
공부하며 알게된 사실
1. 비트코인은 반감기보단 매크로에 따라 움직였다
2. 역사상 비트코인 반감기는 선거시기 , 매크로회복 시기와 맞물렸다
3. 이번 매크로 회복은 최소 2년 이상 걸릴것이다(core cpi 년간 1프로씩 떨어지는중)
4. 금리인상이 멈추면 단기랠리가 나왔다
#bitcoin #macro
1. 비트코인은 반감기보단 매크로에 따라 움직였다
2. 역사상 비트코인 반감기는 선거시기 , 매크로회복 시기와 맞물렸다
3. 이번 매크로 회복은 최소 2년 이상 걸릴것이다(core cpi 년간 1프로씩 떨어지는중)
4. 금리인상이 멈추면 단기랠리가 나왔다
#bitcoin #macro
5. 금리를 인하시엔 오히려 폭락장이 왔다
6. 신용경색이 일으킬 나비효과는 아직 나오지 않은 상황이다
7. 영구 실업률을 발표하지 않고 실업수당 발표를 하는건 아이러니하다
8. 그럼에도 불구하고 실업수당청구치는 최저에서 고개를 드는중
6. 신용경색이 일으킬 나비효과는 아직 나오지 않은 상황이다
7. 영구 실업률을 발표하지 않고 실업수당 발표를 하는건 아이러니하다
8. 그럼에도 불구하고 실업수당청구치는 최저에서 고개를 드는중
9. 생산자 물가상승률이 떨어진다고해서 물가가 낮아진것은 아니다. 고공에서 멈춰있는것
10. 저금리로 실적없이 먹고살던 좀비회사가 갈수록 상환기일이 다가오고있다
11. 제조업 수련자들의 노동시간이 줄어드는중이다
10. 저금리로 실적없이 먹고살던 좀비회사가 갈수록 상환기일이 다가오고있다
11. 제조업 수련자들의 노동시간이 줄어드는중이다
What to join my free private Twitter that goes over #ES_F #SPX and $SPY when requested?
Then all I ask, is that you take the time to complete the 2 very simple tasks below.
Then all I ask, is that you take the time to complete the 2 very simple tasks below.
Task # 1 - click on @StoughtonCharts and follow it
Task #2 - once you have a follow pending, message me here on @Matt_Stoughton.
📊 Market Analysis Time...
Reviewing:
- Bitcoin
- SPX
- DXY
- US 10 Year Bond Yields
A thread....
1/5
Reviewing:
- Bitcoin
- SPX
- DXY
- US 10 Year Bond Yields
A thread....
1/5
#Bitcoin has been neatly following my calls from November broken down on my YouTube.
Currently, per this analysis I sent last week, I still think we're headed to 32K liquidations.
Notice the more time we spent here, the more people flipped bearish / became fearful.
Currently, per this analysis I sent last week, I still think we're headed to 32K liquidations.
Notice the more time we spent here, the more people flipped bearish / became fearful.
#SPX The weekly chart has accumulated. Buyside liquidity is ready for grabs at 4412.00
All we need is a catalyst to precipitate the run up, what is that?
Sell In May.
Sell In May is what will fuel this move up. All of retail will be shorting, setting the stage for an expansion
All we need is a catalyst to precipitate the run up, what is that?
Sell In May.
Sell In May is what will fuel this move up. All of retail will be shorting, setting the stage for an expansion
🚨 #FOMC Trade Thread 🚨
How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX
THIS STRATEGY IS 96.1% ACCURATE PAST 26 FOMC’S (Only One Non-Event Move) 👇
Please ❤️ & ♻️
How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX
THIS STRATEGY IS 96.1% ACCURATE PAST 26 FOMC’S (Only One Non-Event Move) 👇
Please ❤️ & ♻️
This strategy has made 60-140+ POINT MOVES in $SPX which equates to around $5-$15 Moves in $SPY ITSELF!
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
HOW TO TRADE #FOMC 
You FADE the INITIAL REACTION on $SPY at 2PM EST once the Rates are given out and you PLAY the opposite when Powell Speaks at 2:30PM EST.
Example: If initially the market falls at 2PM you would go long at 2:25-2:35 once he starts to speak &this can be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
You FADE the INITIAL REACTION on $SPY at 2PM EST once the Rates are given out and you PLAY the opposite when Powell Speaks at 2:30PM EST.
Example: If initially the market falls at 2PM you would go long at 2:25-2:35 once he starts to speak &this can be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
🚨 #FOMC Trade Thread 🚨
How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX
THIS STRATEGY IS 96.1% ACCURATE PAST 26 FOMC’S (Only One Non-Event Move) 💰
Please ❤️ & ♻️ 👇🏼
How To Trade #FOMC $SPY $SPX
THIS STRATEGY IS 96.1% ACCURATE PAST 26 FOMC’S (Only One Non-Event Move) 💰
Please ❤️ & ♻️ 👇🏼
This strategy has made 60-140+ POINT MOVES in $SPX which equates to around $5-$15 Moves in $SPY ITSELF!
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
There is 1 way on how to trade this strategy and to also state #FOMC is very risky to trade with #SPY #SPX #Options due to the #volatility
👇🏼HOW TO TRADE #FOMC 👇🏼
You FADE the INITIAL REACTION on $SPY at 2PM EST once the Rates are given out and you PLAY the opposite when Powell Speaks at 2:30PM EST.
Example: If initially the market falls at 2PM you would go long at 2:25-2:35 once he starts to speak &this can be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
You FADE the INITIAL REACTION on $SPY at 2PM EST once the Rates are given out and you PLAY the opposite when Powell Speaks at 2:30PM EST.
Example: If initially the market falls at 2PM you would go long at 2:25-2:35 once he starts to speak &this can be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
#MarketReport 2023/04
1) In this thread, I'll cover comparative performance of
📌 #Stock Indices
📌 #Exchange Rates
📌 Treasury #Bills and Government #Bonds
both for April and since pandemic.
1) In this thread, I'll cover comparative performance of
📌 #Stock Indices
📌 #Exchange Rates
📌 Treasury #Bills and Government #Bonds
both for April and since pandemic.
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Monthly close on lighter volume
•Negative divergences from classic indicators
•Tough talk from FEDs
•Inflation is sticky, rates ↑
• #Recession is here
• #GDP ↓
•Leading indicators ↓
• #AAPL earnings ↓
•Big #Gamma at 4000
$SPX #SPX
The Bear's take:
•Monthly close on lighter volume
•Negative divergences from classic indicators
•Tough talk from FEDs
•Inflation is sticky, rates ↑
• #Recession is here
• #GDP ↓
•Leading indicators ↓
• #AAPL earnings ↓
•Big #Gamma at 4000
$SPX #SPX
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Upward momentum is lost
•Negative divergences and sell signals from classic indicators
•Big weekly bullish enfulfing candle on $VVIX
•Weekly bearish haramis on major indices
•Inflation is sticky, higher rates coming
• #Recession is here
#ES_F
The Bear's take:
•Upward momentum is lost
•Negative divergences and sell signals from classic indicators
•Big weekly bullish enfulfing candle on $VVIX
•Weekly bearish haramis on major indices
•Inflation is sticky, higher rates coming
• #Recession is here
#ES_F
A longer 🧵today to explain what we saw. This analysis is using tick-level OPRA data vs. a heuristics-based RT OI estimate currently on our feed. We will look to roll this out soon.
Day started normally, with LG at 4100.
Day started normally, with LG at 4100.
However, by 10:30, we saw some very interesting behaviour. Specifically, we saw #0DTE bulls acting very aggressive, including selling ATM puts at 4120 strike.
By noon, we could tell they were now targeting 4125 and 4130 strikes on their calls.
Choroba niestety nie odpuszcza.
Dzisiaj za dużo nie stworzę ale szybkie podsumowanie wykresów do kawusi 👇 #DXY #SPX #BTC #ETH 👇
Pamiętajcie, że najważniejsze to zacząć tydzień z dobry nastawieniem 🙃
1/🧵
Dzisiaj za dużo nie stworzę ale szybkie podsumowanie wykresów do kawusi 👇 #DXY #SPX #BTC #ETH 👇
Pamiętajcie, że najważniejsze to zacząć tydzień z dobry nastawieniem 🙃
1/🧵
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
The new issue will be out in the morning before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures
@UnrollHelper
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
The new issue will be out in the morning before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures
@UnrollHelper
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Market is in decreasing weekly volume
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
•Valuations are high
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
#ES_F #SPX
The Bear's take:
•Market is in decreasing weekly volume
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
•Valuations are high
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
#ES_F #SPX
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
The new issue will be out tomorrow before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures $Gamma
@UnrollHelper
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
The new issue will be out tomorrow before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures $Gamma
@UnrollHelper
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Market is up in decreasing weekly volume
•Market is overbought
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
#ES_F #SPX
The Bear's take:
•Market is up in decreasing weekly volume
•Market is overbought
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
#ES_F #SPX
🗓️ 2020 - 2021 - 2022 + 2023/Q1 Returns
1) #SPX
S&P 500 Endeksinin geçen 3 yıldaki ve bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki getirileri
1) #SPX
S&P 500 Endeksinin geçen 3 yıldaki ve bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki getirileri
#ChartStorm: 1/17
🗓️ March Performance of ...
🇺🇸 #SPX #IXIC #DJI 🇯🇵 #NI225 🇩🇪 #DAX 🇹🇷 #XU100
#DXY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #CADUSD #JPYUSD #TRYUSD
#TreasuryBills #GovernmentBonds #Yields
🗓️ March Performance of ...
🇺🇸 #SPX #IXIC #DJI 🇯🇵 #NI225 🇩🇪 #DAX 🇹🇷 #XU100
#DXY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #CADUSD #JPYUSD #TRYUSD
#TreasuryBills #GovernmentBonds #Yields
2) Here I'll cover 6 stock market indices in 4 countries:
In order to compare the relative performances, I've chosen a pre-pandemic basis, which is 31/12/2019 closing values.
As Nasdaq, S&P500 and DJI are denominated in US dollars, but the others not, returns are misleading.
In order to compare the relative performances, I've chosen a pre-pandemic basis, which is 31/12/2019 closing values.
As Nasdaq, S&P500 and DJI are denominated in US dollars, but the others not, returns are misleading.
3) I have adjusted the data, and now all are denominated in US dollars.
#BIST returns are still amazing with its 30.4%, but not striking as above. Besides it is positive only after Sep'22. #Nasdaq is leading with 36.2% return. #Nikkei225 is the only index below pandemic level.
#BIST returns are still amazing with its 30.4%, but not striking as above. Besides it is positive only after Sep'22. #Nasdaq is leading with 36.2% return. #Nikkei225 is the only index below pandemic level.
@dampedspring It may be a bit more than $3B Andy.
We're showing the following structure into the end-of week:
charts.gammaedge.us/charm_oi_3d_SP…
What we think matters on Friday is that ITM call component, as it will continue to push flows upward.
We're showing the following structure into the end-of week:
charts.gammaedge.us/charm_oi_3d_SP…
What we think matters on Friday is that ITM call component, as it will continue to push flows upward.
@dampedspring ... but into Friday, there is a significant net positive flow that could capture more ITM puts, forcing them to OTM and positive flow, as well as capturing more ITM calls.
charts.gammaedge.us/net_charm_oi_3…
charts.gammaedge.us/net_charm_oi_3…
@dampedspring What is most striking to us is the simple collapse of charm AFTER Friday.
The landscape for April is flat, relative to the charm surface of this week.
The contrast is quite evident.
✍️
The landscape for April is flat, relative to the charm surface of this week.
The contrast is quite evident.
✍️
1a- Contextual understanding
#Macro level
I posted this last night. The rotation from tech to Financial sector was the intervening variable pushing spy & QQQ down. QQQ bottomed at $308 that's when $SPY started to move up:
#Macro level
I posted this last night. The rotation from tech to Financial sector was the intervening variable pushing spy & QQQ down. QQQ bottomed at $308 that's when $SPY started to move up:
1b- Knowing confluence levels, major points of interest, and support and resistance. I posted these last night for twitter super followers. Draw lines for yourself of price rejection and bounce for one week, the highs and the lows.
Gold attempting to BREAKOUT of its second BIGGEST yearly defined base versus SPX.
Possible analog roadmaps with price & time targets.
8000$ in 2034
12000$ in 2033
21000$ in 2030
Overshoot on smaller time frames not included.
#gold #xauusd #spx #fintwit #inflation #recession
Possible analog roadmaps with price & time targets.
8000$ in 2034
12000$ in 2033
21000$ in 2030
Overshoot on smaller time frames not included.
#gold #xauusd #spx #fintwit #inflation #recession
Somehow our pinned tweet disappeared, so here it is again
This is a thread with information we think valuable:
1) Our Compact Guide to Understanding #Gamma
2) $SPX $Gamma structure Cheat Sheet
3) Our Compact Guide to Options Strategies
4) 2023 Options Calendar... and more
🧵
This is a thread with information we think valuable:
1) Our Compact Guide to Understanding #Gamma
2) $SPX $Gamma structure Cheat Sheet
3) Our Compact Guide to Options Strategies
4) 2023 Options Calendar... and more
🧵
CYCLICALS vs DEFENSIVES:
Renowned investors like Stanley Druckenmiller routinely monitor the performance of Cyclicals vs Defensives as a signal for #stocks, $SPY and #macro economy.
At HQ, we use the following monitor (chart). Whats it telling us now? a 🧵
Renowned investors like Stanley Druckenmiller routinely monitor the performance of Cyclicals vs Defensives as a signal for #stocks, $SPY and #macro economy.
At HQ, we use the following monitor (chart). Whats it telling us now? a 🧵
2/ Lets focus on whats happened, before future expectations
The top panel of the chart shows the relative performance of Cyclical sectors over Defensive sectors ("CDR")
Panel 2 is the #SPX
Panel 3 is the Z-score of the 13 week move in the CDR with 2 std dev movements marked...
The top panel of the chart shows the relative performance of Cyclical sectors over Defensive sectors ("CDR")
Panel 2 is the #SPX
Panel 3 is the Z-score of the 13 week move in the CDR with 2 std dev movements marked...
3/ The final panel (4) shows the rolling cumulative performance of the CDR mapped against HQ's leading economic leading index ("HQLEI", rolling 13 week chg).
From mid '21, the HQLEI fell for the first time in a yr & this preceded the CDR peaking in Nov 21, signaled by...
From mid '21, the HQLEI fell for the first time in a yr & this preceded the CDR peaking in Nov 21, signaled by...
HedgQuarters S&P500 EPS Forecast Model Update:
1/ In Oct 22 we released our S&P 500 multi factor earnings forecast model based on data releases up to Sept 22. Now with 4-5 months more data we have updated the model and highlight the interesting changes
$SPY $QQQ #macro #stocks
1/ In Oct 22 we released our S&P 500 multi factor earnings forecast model based on data releases up to Sept 22. Now with 4-5 months more data we have updated the model and highlight the interesting changes
$SPY $QQQ #macro #stocks
2/ As always we present 2 scenarios. With variable lags to the impact of rate hikes, these models map out 2 assumption sets:
A. the impact on FUTURE EPS of the latest leading econ data, by extending current settings of leading indicators into the future unchanged "STATIC MODEL"
A. the impact on FUTURE EPS of the latest leading econ data, by extending current settings of leading indicators into the future unchanged "STATIC MODEL"
3/ B. "RECESSION MODEL": the impact on future EPS of both current econ data and a forecast assumption set that maps out a possible recession scenario in the US (assumptions at end)
These 2 models allow investors to assess (1) what a recession may look like to earnings and
These 2 models allow investors to assess (1) what a recession may look like to earnings and
1/ While there is a lot of speculation about "what happened" as we moved into the late afternoon session, we think it's pretty clear.
There was a tremendous amount of ITM call delta in the #SPX that was vaporizing, either through monetization or through the expiry...
There was a tremendous amount of ITM call delta in the #SPX that was vaporizing, either through monetization or through the expiry...
2/ Here is the #SPX delta structure at 2:20 pm ET, with a link for you to interact with:
charts.gammaedge.us/delta_oi_3d_SP…
charts.gammaedge.us/delta_oi_3d_SP…
3/ There is a significant amount of ITM call delta that is on the edge of that surface -- that's today's expiry.
Note the imbalance - little exists over on the put side of the graphic.
As many of you know, as we march through time, the ITM components grow...
Note the imbalance - little exists over on the put side of the graphic.
As many of you know, as we march through time, the ITM components grow...
