Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #spx

Most recents (15)

RECESSION THREAD
1/ a lot of you see me post often that a recession is coming. I believe q1/q2 2020 it will happen and I will explain why it will happen then. However don’t expect 2008 unless student debt breaks the govt books (lol)
2/ back in the day when most of you were in high school, recessions came from negative gdp growth. The US hasn’t seen neg gdp in how long? And there’s a reason the #Fed won’t raise rates
3/ we live in an economy financed by debt. They raise the rates too high there won’t be any lending, and the economy will just explode. They won’t allow that to happen. It will be a slow bleed
Read 12 tweets
🇺🇸 #SPX (1) | Equities ⬆ significantly since Dec. lows with participants not taking into account:
1/ the global synchronised slowdown that should be associated with a global trade contraction (YoY) soon
2/ the likely earnings recession in U.S. (and 🇪🇺)
🇺🇸 #SPX (2) | The move can be partly explained by the dovish switch in CBs:
1/ #Fed makes a pause in ⬆ rates and should should stop ⬇ its BS by year-end
2/ #ECB is likely to delay its 1st rate ⬆ and will launch new TLTROs
3/ #BOJ is considering 4 options for extra easing
🇺🇸 #SPX (3) | This easing charge has significant repercussions on asset prices leading to a sharp ⬆ of bonds trading with negative yields (up 60% since Oct. according to a Bloomberg/Barclays index)

#TINA can also explain why investors have rushed into other risky assets
Read 10 tweets
1/

#mcm_chartstorm

Professionals have been piling into puts - this is the 10 day #OEX put/call ratio
2/

SELL EVERYTHING!

(this post is especially for @yuriymatso)
3/

Longer-term $TICK is on the zero line (though this calculation is deceptive as in OVERLY OPTIMISTIC - even an over-optimistic measure with inherent quantization is at signficant risk of a major breakdown)
Read 68 tweets
1/

Lets get this, what’ll probably be way more than 80 chart (yes possibly over 100 charts) #mcm_chartstorm going

Since most analysts (except a few great ones) we see on twitter appear to be copping out as mkt has risen, how much all this BULLISHNESS is really in the mkt? $SPX
2/

In the past we have discussed the epic internal/structural relationships between $NDX and $SPX in 2000 and $FAANGvs $SPX in 2019...lets take a look at that model again
3/

How lets take a look at how this model has played out since we posted it mid year last year...

$FAANG $FNG vs $SPX has followed the model extremely well, with one exception...the $FANG meltdown has been much worse structurally & nominally than the 2000 disaster.
Read 101 tweets
Let’s get this #mcm_chartstorm going

1/

Let’s start with the $INDU
2/

And $SPY $SPX have the same pattern & perfect symmetry BTW imo
3/

$SPHBI High Beta index made a perfect kiss of resistance
$SPX
Read 61 tweets
Well, this is not going to end well...

$VIX is trading at the LARGEST ever discount to its Realized Volatility reference calculation...

Corporate Credit is trading at the 2nd largest divergence to #SPX ever (other than Sept high)
Speaking of $VIX & $VXO check this out. $SPX is shown inverted in this chart & looks awfully bullish plus there is TONS of convergence at 2600
This is our proprietary Historical Volatility calculation that actually forecasts what value $VIX or $VXO should be - which in truth is quite different to 30 day realized volatility which is much too slow imo
Read 3 tweets
1/

Let’s get this #MCM_CHARTSTORM started.

There are a lot of charts. Will be updating the thread into tomorrow, so if you want to see the whole thing it will not be complete till tomorrow - keep checking back.

Will also prepare a THREADVIEWER version

Let’s start with $SPX
2/

Here is a better version of that $COMP & $SPX (gray) chart
3/

How about the $COMPQ Running Correction? Its coming right along and following perfectly as well as getting ready to soon pull the rug out from underneath buyers imo $SPX
Read 61 tweets
Mini Chart storm starts now

1/

Global Dow broke support yesterday - this is a BIG DEAL
2/

Major US indexes failed at resistance and are now in process of testing shelf supports that open flood waters when broken
3/

NOT what you want to see VOLUME ON DECLINING ISSUES is way bigger than the decline in the Advance/Decline line. The largest this year. Suggests institutional commitment to the selling $SPX
Read 13 tweets
#Chart #EXTRAVAGANZA

Please read the whole thread - will start posting now...but eating dinner so will take a while to get the 30 to 40 tweets done

/1
Given the two crashes in one year and the recent #FANG blow up...how much cash do you think Mutual Funds are holding? How about the lowest ever!

More over their allocations to Stocks remain among the highest ever.

/2
And how are those stock/equity investments postured?

We’ll very precariously as #NYSE and #Nasdaq #Composite show...completely stopped at major resistance...not only that there is the breadth question which we will address later and is terrible

/3
Read 38 tweets
THREAD
1/ i see a lot of ppl on CT talking about $btc and #spx #dji and how they are correlated. I will give my opinion on the subject, but first to back my hypothesis i will give a background on myself
2/ i was in equity and private placement before crypto. I left that world for crypto. i have an MBA. I raised millions upon millions of dollars for public companies in private placement memorandums (warrants, options, etc...).
3/ CT is filled with crypto moonbois who came into trading through crypto. There is nothing wrong with that. In fact if you are still here after a year of bear (or youre 2nd bear) you have learned a life skill (TA) that you can rarely find in a college curriculum
Read 10 tweets
Tria non potrebbe mai lavorare con @POTUS 😂😂😂
#TriaExit #Mef cosa?
Sta diventando stucchevole..tanto 1,6/2/2,5 la sostanza non cambia...se arriva la contrazione economica seria come preambolo di recessione...vi travolge ...senza se e senza ma...
PUPAZZI 👺💩👏

#ITALY'S LEAGUE ECONOMICS ADVISOR SAYS ANY TALK OF THE COUNTRY'S EURO EXIT IS OUT OF DISCUSSION
Read 347 tweets
Arbitraggio di "latenza" e frammentazione della struttura del mercato US sono i concetti (da approfondire) su cui si basa la manipolazione del mercato americano, grazie al ruolo svolto da #HFT e Quants
per iniziare un video che rappresenta un "must"
#ES_F
Ogni rettangolo colorato nel video è un exchange,ce ne sono 13 che tradano equities US ma controllati da 3 gruppi,Nasdaq/Nyse/Cboe quest'ultimo domina su opzioni e futures con CME. Ma ogni giorno il 40% del volume di scambi avviene nell'oscurità delle dark pool (oggi 2,15 mld $!)
Qui incominciamo a vedere i vari livelli che intercorrono prima di arrivare ad un "buy" per un "comune mortale"...
Read 51 tweets
Okay, I think I figured out what is Trump's ultimate game in this escalated US-China trade tensions and I think he will get it. Will share my thoughts in a thread soon! 😎
1) What is Trump's ultimate game? RECIPROCAL TRADE & INVESTMENT. Pissed off about higher tariffs vs the US & non-tariff barriers. Regarding #China 🇨🇳, doesn't like forced tech transfers, Chinese industrial overcapacity, gov subs. But how to get this? Investment+Trade policy
2)Implemented #taxreforms that impacts 50% of global FDI stock & favors US as a destination; USD2trn of REPATRIATION of funds, lower retained earnings of foreign affiliates; higher INVESTMENT in the US b/c of expensing, re-shoring of manufacturing. Basically, good for earnings💪
Read 20 tweets
Top bollinger V-bottomed on $INDU #Dow ... Put your seat belts on, equities about to rip... (Yet another confirmation signal $USDJPY about to run as well)
#Dow Daily: First Posted back in April 🤓 . Took longer than other indices but finally breaking out to ATHs. Updated chart with long term TLs, and although we have decent amount of room to run, #Dowjones is approaching a hard limit soon. #Markets #economy #stocks #SPX
#Dow Daily: $DOW backtested 13MA and bounced aggressively. Upper BB shape indicating strong push upwards to new ATH. Stoichs indicating one more pulse before a deeper pullback #Dowjones is approaching final high soon (purple). #Markets #economy #stocks #SPX
Read 22 tweets
#SPX #Stocks (1) | Private asset managers raised a record $748 billion globally last year, according to Preqin data compiled and published in Mckinsey’s 2018 Global Private Markets Review - Bloomberg
#SPX #Stocks (2) | Too Few Stocks Rebounding From Rout for Chart Gurus to Calm Down - Bloomberg - bloom.bg/2okxlsi
#SPX #Stocks (3) | Money Managers Think the Worst Is Yet to Come for S&P 500 - Bloomberg - bloom.bg/2EKSoPk
Read 10 tweets

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