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Good thread, but I disagree with final conclusion. In spite of everything, I remain convinced that a no-deal will not happen. 1/
2/ Consequences of no-deal beginning to filter into mainstream. Overnight crash, hard border, grounded planes/nuclear material: more visible
3/ Tories already winded & demoralised. Public will blame them for what ensues on their watch. Could make 1997 election look like a draw.
4/ Parl't arithmetic also against them. Tory Remainers will vote with Lab to flee sinking ship. Gov will fall if it tries to drive off cliff
5/ Let's imagine Gov really does overdose on its own cocktail of delusion. Talks collapse, we edge towards the abyss. What happens?
6/ Mail/Sun cd try to sell readers new Blitz spirit. Readers (literally) won't buy. OK to shout 'fire' in theatre if everyone can see smoke
7/ Even most deluded Tory hardliners would see writing on wall for themselves & party, even if they didn't care about fate of country
8/ Gov would go to Brussels for crisis talks, day and night. EU doesn't want this either. In private, Gov would get on knees & apologise.
9/ End result 1 of 2 things: A50 revocation or extension. Despite our folly and hubris, EU won't throw us off cliff if we don't want to fall
10/ Likeliest & easiest outcome: limited extension of A50, which either allows new referendum or a chastened UK to negotiate realistically
11/ Default outcome- cliff-edge- wd be calamity for the ages. Key point: Ireland would share that calamity. EU won't make them collateral.
