Going to do a review of September and October so far. Going through a rough spell, so taking a few days break from reading form and as usual, I’m hoping updating my results clears my head. Feel like it’s been a tough start to October. 🤢
As always, timing is everything and having started giving bets to people to follow from the start of this month when I’ve been placing the bets myself, a little frustrating for me and others following that the month has started poorly.
Not going to dwell too much on this aspect in the review as ultimately, the trial was to see if I could help people just by giving them the bets and letting the bets run outright.
Historically, it’s been massively profitable and we’re only two weeks in, so not going to worry too much. Could well be it doesn’t work for me or those following but would have wondered if I could do it tbh if I didn’t give it a go, so we’ll see how it pans out.
September was a solid enough month for me. I lost my last useful accounts towards the end of the month and although I’ve got a couple for small stakes, I’m predominantly playing on Betfair now.
Bet Connect is on pause for me at the moment as ultimately, giving the bets out to others is seeing the odds move fairly often before 9am (even more so than normal as it’s clearly not just our money doing it) and therefore, it makes BC more difficult.
Assuming this trial doesn’t carry on past the first cycle of profit, I suspect I’ll end up splitting the bets between BC and Betfair tbh. The 2% commission really helps me on Betfair now with my strategy too, so using BC and Betfair in conjunction will work fine.
I ended up with a profit of £1,700 in September which is my second lowest monthly profit this year. ROI was the 3rd lowest this year too, so whatever way I look at it, September wasn’t a vintage month for me. However, would never knock a £1.7k profit! 
The outright results were a profit of £6.5k and an ROI of 30.2%. My 8th month in a row with an ROI in excess of 25%. It’s funny, my overall profit from outright betting was over £198.5k and I sort of assumed (wrongly!) that I’d smash the £200k mark in October.
October has been difficult though. Currently sitting with a £521 loss from outright betting although my own trading results are a profit of £463. My ROI is bang on 8%, so not my best month by any means but then again, my overall ROI is 12.8%, so an 8% ROI is fine.
So far this month I’ve been on some amazing steamers (so many have halved in price) but for whatever reason, they haven’t been running well. I’m sure some of it is due to the soft ground and some due to the fact I’m making the transition to NH racing.
I also can’t ignore the fact that I believe some of the under performance is due to the fact I’m giving the bets to others. Not really discussed it on here but discussed it on Telegram with the group following but I’ve not really been enjoying the tipping side of things.
Hard to explain why as the whole concept of the group following is that I’m doing the work for myself and I simply relay the bets to them but for whatever reason, I’ve not got comfortable with it (yet!)
The challenge I face is that if the tipping impacts my ability to pick the right bets, it will impact my ability to make money from doing my own thing with the bets and therefore, the whole thing becomes self defeating!
The issue so far this month is that I’ve had too many poor days where I’ve backed a really bad drifter or two. These have cost me money, the steamers haven’t been winning and overall, it’s been really hard work! 6 losing days in the first half of the month so far. 🤷♂️
As I’ve said to the group following, what I can’t do is lose sight of the big picture. Yes, I’m struggling just now to pick a winner but I’ve lost £500 this month for outright betting after winning £198k over 21 months!! Hardly a disaster.
My staking this month has been more structured as I’ve been following the staking plan for the outright bets and I guess this is something that isn’t necessary going to be a benefit for me although given how shit this month has been, staking less is no bad thing!
The average profit and loss is down this month as you can see. Part of this is the staking, part of this is I’ve had a lack of winners and a lot of steamers are where I’ve only made small profits. Losses haven’t been big either though which is a sign I’m controlling things well.
Although it hasn’t been the best 6 weeks or so, when you look at my progression this year versus last year, it still looks fine. Was clearly doing better this time last year in terms of rate of growth the last 2 months but it was easier back then with getting on.
As I’ve been saying for a while now, the challenge for me now is how do I make money in 2020? This is clearly going to be a much greater challenge and it will be interesting to see how I do over the rest of the year as it help me know if I can make my £20k target next year!
The final graphs are just my own P&L for this year and since the beginning and also the same for outright betting.
Overall, you can see the struggle over the last few weeks with the outright bets in the P&L graph of this year but at the same time, the graph gives me hope it will pick up again at some point soon! We’ll see. 🤷♂️
@threadreaderapp unroll
