Last week, in DC, one of the smartest people I know there rated the chance of Trump re-election at 60%. Another said he felt the Dems were about to screw it up despite the urgency of defeating Trump. I've thought about it...and they're right, but not for the reasons many think.
First, as polling shows, while Trump is vulnerable, his base is rock solid. Their unshakeable commitment to him is illustrated by the fact that he seems dedicated to testing it with outrage after outrage and still, to coin a phrase, they persist.
Next, he has several systemic advantages. First, the electoral college gives the GOP an advantage. One study suggests Dems need to get 4% more votes than the GOP just to offset that advantage. Next, he has the bully pulpit, he can largely set the agenda and drive events.
Third, he has what you might call the corrupt bully pulpit which is the voter suppression efforts at which the GOP has worked so hard for years and at which they continue to labor. Fourth, he has Russia again--foreign interference.
In the wake of the worst attack on U.S. democratic institutions ever in 2016, the GOP-led Senate has actually worked to make it even easier for the Russians and others to intervene this time around. Our defenses have actually been lowered.
He also has the aid of some big biased organizations, like Facebook. As one friend in DC pointed out, Facebook is worried about anti-trust regulations targeting them. The anti-trust team working on this now reports directly to Bill Barr.
Bill Barr is not just the Minister of Injustice in the Trump Regime, systematically working to defend the President at the expense of the Constitution at every turn. He is also the keeper of ideological purity, carrying the flame of the unitary presidency.
He is a Trump acolyte, it is clear. Fairness never enters into his calculus. So...how do you think Mark Zuckerberg is going to play that (whatever his tendencies or personal preferences may be). We don't have to guess. We have already seen it.
On top of this, we have the Dems. While the field of candidates is strong, there are worrisome signs and tendencies. First, there is the presumed front-runner, Joe Biden. He has name recognition and he is sprinkled with Obama dust.
But he is a weak candidate. He is too old to run for re-election in 2024. He may be too old to run for election in 2020. His ideas are old. His approach to politics is dated. He seems to be tired and mouthing his lines.
He has had a distinguished career and polls show he can beat Trump. That's important. But...polls don't show how badly he historically has been as a campaigner. And frankly, I am concerned because many folks I know who know him well from the Obama team, don't support him.
That's not because they don't like him. He's likable. It's because he is not seen as very smart. His record is mixed. On foreign policy, a supposed strong suit, that is especially so. But it is also the case re: his record on the Judiciary Comm., etc.
He's out of touch on women and race. I know I will get endless crap for saying this, but isn't this what we're supposed to flag during a campaign? Isn't it better to air this now than suffer for our silence later?
The progressive side hasn't done much better. Warren's campaign has been good until a month ago. Now she is struggling because of her stance on M4A. She's in the right place re: a result. But she has been too unwilling to compromise on how to get there.
I admire that...and her. But she has also, for good reasons, got the money people worried. They think she is coming after their taxes. She is. She should. We all should. But it is leading to a concerted, paid effort to paint her as a radical.
Bernie should have stepped aside to make way for her. He hasn't and won't. That divides progressives and makes Biden more likely, warts and all. Mayor Pete has emerged as the moderate plan B...which is fine but he has absolutely no relevant experience for the job.
The better moderate choices like Harris, Booker and Klobuchar have languished. Well, Kamala was savaged for daring to criticize Biden (though he was not attacked for doing the same to others.) Once again, in fact, we have seen deep prejudice against women candidates.
Warren is being held to a standard on specifics that Biden is not (what are his specifics behind the "once we get rid of Trump everything will be fine" promise...does he not remember working with Mitch before?) And in my view, the women are strength of this field.
Personally, I am a former centrist. I was in the Clinton Administration. I believe centrist economic policies fueled inequality that in part led to Trump--and has led to a divided dysfunctional country. It is time for something new and more progressive.
I'd like to see the party come together around a candidate that can get us there while unifying center and left, who can not just win but legislate and lead us to a win in 2022 and 2024 and beyond. Who can help reverse some of the unfair advantages the GOP has in our system.
Who can help make America work better, lead more effectively in the world, and grow into the best 21st Century version of our country we can be. I think several of our candidates can do this and win. But the establishment is doing its thing and trying to suppress the change...
we need. And the progressives are doing their thing and cleaving to ideological purity rather than the practicalities of getting the power they need. And whereas more unites us than divides us, it doesn't take too much division to tip the scales to Trump given his advantages.
We had a great centrist candidate with strong progressive instincts in 2016. She won the popular vote. She was robbed of an electoral victory. We should learn from this...not rejecting her model entirely but improving upon it based on what we learned then and in '08 and '12.
For me, that's probably still Warren-Harris or Harris-Buttigieg or Booker-Klobuchar or something that. Others will have other views. In the end, we need to vote for the Dem and mobilize to defeat Trump who is an existential threat to our democracy.
But, we also need to have our eyes open about our own weaknesses and our opponent's strengths. Being honest with ourselves is an essential part of winning. The weeks and months ahead will test to see whether one of those running for our nomination...
...will transcend who they have been and become who we need them to be. We can do more than just hope they will rise to that challenge...we can help them do it and then we can turn our attention to ensuring they win.
p.s. Obvious caveat: This is just one guy's view. I'm often wrong about such things. But I feel one advantage of Twitter is having open exchanges on such issues even when thoughts are not fully formed. Just to help us all move along...and to benefit from the back and forth.
p.p.s. I guess another way to look at all this is "Dems do ourselves no favors by buying into ideas the race is done right now. Let's keep an open mind and be as demanding as possible of our candidates. Let's not let the political establishment set our agenda for us."
